Autumn Statement
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(9 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
The fundamental approach of this Government to addressing poverty is to get people back into work and to ensure that real earnings recover and outstrip inflation, as we discussed earlier. In looking at the distributional analysis to see who is contributing towards the benefits, the top 20% pay more than the remaining 80%, so that is how the balance of our distribution looks.
Lord Deighton
I will be delighted to use my expertise as a poacher turned gamekeeper to help structure the profits diversion tax in a way that actually works. The noble Lord is quite right; it will only work ultimately if we capture this on a global basis. That, of course, is the work that is going on. The noble Lord will not be surprised to know that I will not be making any comments on monetary policy, which is a matter for the Bank.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
I congratulate my noble friend on his kindness in not repeating the Statement because it is perfectly obvious that the noble Lord would have had nothing to say by way of reply. Does my noble friend think that it is something of a nerve for the parties opposite, including those who have now flown to the Cross Benches, to complain about the Government’s progress in reducing the deficit when they have opposed every spending cut and every initiative by us to increase revenues? Are they not rather like a bunch of arsonists complaining that the fire crew is taking too long to put out the fire?
Lord Deighton
As always—and even more so today—it is very difficult to disagree with my noble friend.
Infrastructure Bill [HL]
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(9 years, 11 months ago)
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Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Given what my noble friend has said, what answer would my right honourable friend the Chancellor give if Alex Salmond suggested that we should set up a sovereign wealth fund now using the proceeds from North Sea oil so that Scotland would benefit from it? Where does this hypothecation end?
Lord Deighton
I think the difference between the two opportunities is that, in one case, we are right at the beginning and, in the other, we are right at the end. Now is the time to explore the opportunity with respect to shale gas.
My noble friend Lord Hodgson pointed out that a sovereign wealth fund was implemented successfully in Norway, but that fund was established in 1990, which was nearly 20 years after oil was first produced. The fund was set up when the levels of revenue were already well known—this was a point that my noble friend Lord Forsyth was also getting at. The UK shale gas industry is still in the exploration phase. We will not be able accurately to forecast the scale or timing of shale revenues until more work is done to determine the extent of gas that can be technically and commercially recovered. Therefore, coming up today with a clear plan for how this might fit into issues related to determining how we reduce the deficit and how we invest in the long term is extremely difficult without understanding what the revenues will be—I fully take on the point made there by my noble friend Lord Forsyth.
It should therefore be for future Governments to think about how such a fund could be designed, but we commit to the principle. The Chancellor will demonstrate his commitment to bring forward a proposal in the next Parliament in his Autumn Statement. With respect to the request made by my noble friend Lord Hodgson for a peg in the board now, and for those others who support this idea, I think that the right timing is when we have better information and are able to look at this matter properly. On that basis, I trust that the noble Lords, Lord Hodgson, Lord Whitty, Lord Teverson and Lord Jenkin, will agree not to press their amendment.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Perhaps I might follow up on my noble friend’s point about the Scottish position. He said that we were right at the end and not at the beginning. What would his response be to a proposition that said, “Well, for new fields that are discovered, we should have a sovereign wealth fund”? Let us bear in mind that there are considerable potential resources to the west of the Shetland Islands and so on. Surely this is a very dangerous argument given the delicate situation that we are in, where we appear to be saying that, for some parts of the country and for some energy resources, a different view will be taken of the long-term future. Is this not a very dangerous proposition which could unravel rather badly?
Lord Deighton
That is one of the reasons for our anticipating that this subject would be explored in the next Parliament rather than this one.
Thames Garden Bridge
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(10 years, 9 months ago)
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Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)
My Lords, can my noble friend tell me how many people’s entire income tax paid over the whole of their working life would be needed in order to fund this £30 million?
Lord Deighton
That depends which people you choose. Obviously I take the point of the question. That is why, before we commit the £30 million, we will ensure that it passes a strong business case and why, before we go ahead with the project, the Garden Bridge Trust, under the chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Davies of Abersoch, will have to raise £90 million so that there will be no further call on the Treasury.
National Infrastructure Plan
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(10 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
That particular project, along with five or six others, is the subject of a feasibility study to determine the right solution. Next year, when all those studies are complete, we will make a decision to go ahead with the proposed solution.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)
My Lords, will the Minister confirm that, had the Government stuck to Labour’s spending plans, capital expenditure would have been cut by considerably more and that, in coming into Government, we actually increased the allocation for capital expenditure? I congratulate him on his initiative, but how are the Government’s proposals to reduce the cost of electricity consistent with promoting offshore wind farms, which are the most expensive possible form of renewable energy and which will have to be paid for through people’s electricity bills?
Lord Deighton
With the first part of his question, as always, my noble friend forensically brings us to the detail. It is quite true that the Opposition’s plans for capital expenditure were lower than this Government’s. Subsequently, we switched current spend into capital spend in the Autumn Statements in 2011 and 2012, which further exacerbated this side’s advantage on investment. On my noble friend’s observation about offshore wind strike prices, the purpose of today’s announcement was to give the industry certainty in order to be able to get on with the building that we need, not only in nuclear but in wind and, over time, with the capacity mechanism, in gas. There are of course a variety of views about the speed at which we should decarbonise and the value of that, but the current status reflects our view on getting a diversified supply of energy.
Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 2 months ago)
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The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Deighton)
My Lords, the Bill is a central part of the Government’s response to the financial crisis of 2007-09. Noble Lords will recall the terrible events of those years. Britain saw the first bank run in over a century. Depositors in Northern Rock queued in the streets to take their money out. The biggest bank in the world, the Royal Bank of Scotland, teetered on the brink. RBS and HBOS had to be bailed out and the Government had to inject £65 billion of taxpayers’ money to save the banking system from collapse.
Huge though this direct cost to the taxpayer was, the full costs of the crisis were still greater. Gross domestic product fell, peak to trough, by 7.2% as the supply of credit dried up and tight credit continues to be a problem for many businesses and families. This is why the Government have had to intervene to support credit supply through measures such as Funding for Lending, Help to Buy and the Business Finance Partnership. These will help to address the consequences of the crisis. To tackle its causes and to prevent a repeat, the Government are taking forward a programme of reform built on three pillars.
The first pillar is reform of financial regulation. This was achieved through the Financial Services Act 2012, which received Royal Assent last December and came into force this spring. The second pillar is structural reform of the banking industry. That is the focus of the measures in the Bill before us today. The third pillar is reform of banking standards and culture. The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards—the PCBS; I am afraid there will be quite a few abbreviations today—last month made important recommendations in this area. The Government have accepted the PCBS’s principal recommendations and where those require primary legislation they will be incorporated into this Bill through government amendments at Committee stage.
Let me first turn to the measures already in the Bill. The bulk of these implement key recommendations of the Independent Commission on Banking, or ICB, chaired by Sir John Vickers. As noble Lords will know, the Vickers commission was established in 2010 to consider both structural and non-structural reforms to the banking sector. It reported in September 2011 and recommended, first, the ring-fencing of retail from investment banking. The ICB also proposed measures to improve banks’ ability to absorb losses and to ensure that losses can be made to fall on banks’ creditors and not the taxpayer if a bank fails. These measures included higher capital requirements for ring-fenced banks, a bail-in power and preference in insolvency for bank depositors over other creditors. The Government accepted virtually all the ICB’s recommendations.
This Bill will implement the ring-fence as recommended by the ICB. It defines core activities—that is, taking deposits—which must be inside the ring-fence, and it defines excluded activities—that is, trading in investments as principal—which must be outside the ring-fence. As the ICB recommended, activities that are neither core nor excluded may be either in or out. The Bill makes safeguarding the continuity of services connected to deposit-taking a part of the Prudential Regulation Authority’s general objective. It requires the PRA to make rules to ensure the independence of ring-fenced banks from their wider corporate groups. In response to the recommendations of the PCBS, we have amended the Bill in the Commons to electrify the ring-fence. I will come on to the details of that shortly.
The Bill also makes deposits protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme preferential debts in the event of insolvency. This will increase the FSCS’s expected recovery in the event that a bank fails and the FSCS has to pay out, reducing the risk of contagion and protecting the taxpayer. The ICB also recommended that if a bank fails the authorities should have the power to bail-in creditors, imposing losses on them rather than letting those losses fall on the taxpayer. The forthcoming EU bank recovery and resolution directive should deliver a bail-in tool at European level and a requirement for national authorities to ensure that their banks have in issue a minimum amount of credibly bail-inable liabilities, necessary to ensure bail-in is effective and credible. This Bill gives the Treasury power to set the framework within which the PRA imposes requirements on banks to have in issue minimum amounts of bail-inable debt.
In addition to the ICB’s recommendations, the Bill also reforms the governance of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme manager to ensure proper oversight and accountability for its use of public funds. It extends to subsidiaries of the Bank of England exemptions from Companies Act accounting requirements given to the Bank itself where the Bank considers that necessary for reasons of financial stability. It also allows for the costs of the Treasury’s participation in international organisations dealing with financial stability to be recovered from the industry.
Before reaching this House, the Bill already received very substantial scrutiny. The Government published the Bill in draft last October for pre-legislative scrutiny by the PCBS, which of course included several Members of this House. In light of the PCBS’s report on the draft Bill, the Government made a number of changes both before the Bill was introduced to Parliament and while it was before the House of Commons. In the Commons, the Bill was scrutinised line by line over the course of eight Committee sittings and had two days of debate on Report. For a Bill of just 35 pages, that was intensive, detailed scrutiny.
Throughout this process the Government have consistently adopted a constructive approach. We have welcomed suggestions from all quarters on how the Bill might be improved. Where we found those suggestions valuable, we have amended the Bill accordingly. For example, in pre-legislative scrutiny the PCBS argued that the regulator’s objective for ring-fencing could be made clearer. We accepted this suggestion and amended the Bill before its introduction and again on Report in the Commons. The PCBS also called for specific requirements for ring-fenced bank independence to be put in the Bill. We agreed and amended the Bill in a way that the PCBS acknowledged arguably went even further than it had suggested. The PCBS proposed that the PRA be required to report on ring-fenced banks’ sale of derivatives to clients. We will amend the Bill to this effect while it is before this House.
On the procedures for exercising delegated powers, the Government not only accepted recommendations made by the House of Lords Delegated Powers Committee, but also accepted a further amendment tabled by the Opposition in Committee in the Commons.
Perhaps most significantly, as I alluded to earlier, in response to the recommendation of the PCBS, the Government amended the Bill in the Commons to provide for a power for the full separation of an individual banking group. This is what the PCBS termed “electrifying” the ring-fence. The power we have added to the Bill will substantially reinforce the ring-fence. It will allow the regulator to require a banking group to separate completely its retail from its wholesale banking operations. This power can be exercised if the regulator believes that a ring-fenced bank is insufficiently independent of the rest of its group, or that the group’s conduct might in some other way threaten the regulator’s ability to safeguard the continuity of core retail banking services. As the PCBS recommended, given the momentous consequences for a banking group of a requirement to separate, the regulator can only use this power with the consent of the Treasury.
As noble Lords will know, when this power was debated in the Commons, questions were raised about the process for exercising it set out in the Government’s amendment. Some argued that the procedure was too complicated or lengthy. The Government have listened to these arguments. We accept that the process for requiring a group to separate could usefully be streamlined. We will therefore bring forward amendments to that effect while the Bill is before this House. And we will listen to the contributions of noble Lords to ensure that the process in the Bill meets the objectives that the PCBS set out, and which the Government share.
The Government remain unpersuaded, however, that a reserve provision for full separation across the entire industry would be appropriate. A firm-specific reserve power will reinforce the ring-fence by deterring banks from seeking to undermine or weaken it. However, to move to industry-wide separation would be to abandon the ring-fence altogether, in favour of an alternative structural reform. Let us be clear: this would not be a sanction, it would be a different policy. That alternative policy was considered in detail by the ICB, which rejected it. As noble Lords will know, the ICB concluded that full separation similar to Glass-Steagall would entail very significant additional costs, for doubtful—or even negative—additional benefits to ring-fencing. The Government have accepted the ICB’s recommendation and are therefore implementing the ring-fence through this Bill.
Like the ICB, the Government believe that the ring-fence will succeed. A future Government would, of course, be within their rights to come to a different conclusion, and to shift to an alternative policy. But if they did, the only proper and democratic way to implement that new policy would be to return to Parliament with new primary legislation which could be properly debated and scrutinised. The proposal made by the PCBS would potentially lead to full separation with no more than a short debate in Parliament and a vote. This would stand in extreme contrast to the extensive consultation and scrutiny that the current policy has gone through.
We have also recently heard proposals from the PCBS on the issue of the leverage ratio. The PCBS has suggested that control over the leverage ratio should be taken out of political hands and given to the regulator. The Government strongly support the principle of a binding minimum leverage ratio, as agreed in the Basel III accord. We believe that it is entirely appropriate for minimum standards to be set in statute. This applies to all the minimum requirements in Basel III, which we continue to push to have implemented through EU legislation.
This does not mean that there is no role for the regulator. Judgment-based regulation means the regulator having the ability to impose additional requirements if it feels that these are necessary to achieve its statutory objectives. Only last month, the PRA required a number of banks to meet higher leverage standards sooner than the Basel III deadline. The PRA thus demonstrated that it already has the power to impose higher requirements on leverage. So beyond minimum requirements set in statute in line with international standards, day-to-day control over the leverage ratio lies in the hands of the PRA.
Structural reform of the banking industry is the second pillar of the Government’s reform programme. The third pillar is reform of banking standards and culture. As noble Lords well know, the Government have welcomed the recent report of the PCBS, one main theme of which was to strengthen individual accountability in financial services. The PCBS argued that the existing approved persons regime has failed in this, and that new measures are needed to replace it. The PCBS also called for criminal sanctions for reckless misconduct in the management of a bank.
The Government have accepted these recommendations. While the Bill is before this House, we will therefore bring forward amendments to introduce a new senior persons regime. We will reverse the burden of proof for senior persons so that they will be accountable for any breaches of regulatory requirements in their areas of responsibility, unless they can prove that they took all reasonable steps to prevent them. We will also amend the Bill to give regulators the power to make rules governing the conduct of anyone employed in financial services, and to extend the time limit for enforcement action from three to six years.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
I am most grateful to my noble friend. Perhaps I should declare an interest as a regulated person. This new criminal offence of reckless misconduct is to apply—according to the excellent report which was produced—only to the senior management of banks. Can the Minister explain why, if someone is responsible for major systemic difficulties arising from the collapse of a bank, this new criminal offence should be limited only to the management of the bank and not apply to regulators or Treasury officials?
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend for that interesting observation. The purpose of the Bill is to look at the management of the financial institutions themselves rather than the system. I would welcome that discussion later, in Committee, if my noble friend would like to take it further.
As a further deterrent against misconduct, the Government will table amendments to make reckless misconduct in the management of a bank a criminal offence. Those found guilty will face the possibility of prison sentences. Together, these measures represent an historic overhaul of the system for holding bankers to account for their actions. However, rules and sanctions alone will not guarantee good conduct. The PCBS argued that effective competition between banks is essential to ensuring high standards of behaviour, and the Government agree. We will therefore amend the Bill to give the PRA a secondary competition objective. This will give the PRA a greater role in championing competition in the banking market, to the benefit of consumers.
One key barrier to competition in banking, and in particular to new entrants and smaller firms looking to challenge the big high street banks, is the big banks’ control of payments systems. The Government will therefore introduce amendments establishing utility-style regulation of payments systems. To ensure the safety and stability of payments services, we will also bring forward amendments to provide for a special administration regime for payment and settlement systems. This will require critical payment and settlement services to be continued even in insolvency, until the firm recovers or alternative provision is available.
While the Bill is before this House, the Government will also make some technical amendments to provisions on the pension liabilities of ring-fenced banks and introduce amendments to modernise the rules for building societies, helping to create a level playing field between building societies and banks while preserving the distinct nature of the building society sector.
In the other place, the Government set out our intention to use this Bill to require the Bank of England to produce a resolution strategy for each major UK bank—that is, a plan for how the authorities propose to respond in the event that that bank failed. We still believe that resolution plans are necessary, but given that the European Council of Ministers and the European Parliament have recently published proposals for the EU recovery and resolution directive that include similar provisions, it may be more appropriate for this requirement to be imposed through transposition of the directive than through the Bill. The Government will continue to review this issue in the light of European developments while the Bill is before this House, with a view to bringing forward amendments if necessary.
We can all agree that this is legislation of the highest importance. It is essential that we address the causes of the terrible banking crisis of five years ago, whose consequences remain with us today. The Bill is a vital step towards ensuring that this crisis is never repeated. Its current provisions represent a once in a generation reform of the structure of British banking, while forthcoming amendments will revamp the accountability regime for bankers’ conduct and standards. I look forward to constructive engagement with all sides of this House over the months ahead. To support noble Lords’ consideration of the Bill, last week the Government published drafts of the principal secondary legislation exercising delegated powers under the Bill, and I will ensure that my officials are available to noble Lords to discuss any details of the Bill. I am pleased to present the Bill for the consideration of noble Lords. I beg to move.
Economy: Infrastructure
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
The actual expenditure on infrastructure is difficult to predict because, of course, the predominant portion of infrastructure is financed by the private sector. That is why we focused on developing our energy policy, so that we can trigger investments with offshore wind, with nuclear and with various gas developments. We have laid out our expenditure plans and the proportion of investment that is capital investment is laid out in the spending round for this year and for future years. We have shifted, I believe, £9.3 billion from current spending to capital spending during the time of this Government. We have put an extra £18 billion into capital investment in Budget 2013. As a result of those changes, public investment as a share of GDP will be higher on average between 2010-11 and 2020-21 than it was under the previous Government. We are trying to shift it into the more productive areas. Transport investment in 2013-14 will be higher than at any point under the previous Government despite the fact that we were in something of a boom time there, and it will rise every year until 2020.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
My Lords, can my noble friend tell the House how much less would be spent on infrastructure and capital projects if the plans of Alistair Darling and the previous Labour Government had been implemented?
Lord Deighton
Again we are dealing with a hypothetical question because in 2010 our plans for capital investment were broadly similar. Since then, because of our ability to focus on government efficiencies and the delivery of other programmes more cheaply, we have been able to transfer, first, the £10 billion to which I referred into capital spending within our fiscal envelope and, then, a further £18 billion through 2020-21. These capital expenditure investments are very focused on the most productive areas—economic infrastructure—but they are also all fully costed and within a fiscal envelope that is affordable.
Spending Review
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
My Lords, can my noble friend confirm that at the end of the previous Government’s period of office the national debt had doubled, and that on the figures presented today the national debt will have doubled again by the time of the election? Can he explain what the effects would be of a rise in interest rates of, say, 1% on the repayments which the Government will have to make on their borrowings and on the value of the government gilts held by the Bank of England? How will that hole be dealt with? He mentioned that interest rates have been held down, but we are already seeing rates beginning to rise, so what contingency plans are in place? Should we not be very much more concerned about the future of the economy, given that the outgoing Governor of the Bank of England has today warned our youngsters about the possible impact on mortgages and on the balance sheets of the bank themselves? Where is the contingency planning for that eventuality in the Government’s Statement today?
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend for raising, as he has done on many occasions before, everyone’s awareness of the fact that when we discuss the deficit we are talking about the annual addition to our stock of borrowing. Until that deficit turns into a surplus we will not reduce our stock of borrowing, and the increased stock of borrowing leaves us with a significant exposure. My noble friend Lord Newby informs me that a 1% increase in interest rates will have an economic effect of approximately £4 billion, but we will review that number.
The way to provide for the contingency to be able to cope with any additional expenditure, whether it is interest, overseas issues or events that crop up, is to continue to drive down our deficit to give us as much flexibility as possible to handle whatever events face us in the future.
Infrastructure: Expenditure
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
I thank the noble Lord for drawing attention to an important part of our intervention to improve the public sector’s delivery of these crucial projects. On the question of the amount of resources required, we are not simply discussing the resources in Infrastructure UK here; we are discussing the resources right across government, particularly in the government departments that are charged with delivering infrastructure: the DfT and DECC being the two primary examples. Between now and June, we will work precisely to define their requirements, based on the project load that they are managing, and what they ought to be staffed with in order to make that happen. That gap is thus being defined, and we have to assess what is in the departments as well as what is in Infrastructure UK in order to determine how to fill in that difference.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
My Lords, will my noble friend confirm that had he continued with Alistair Darling’s plans for capital expenditure, capital expenditure would have been severely reduced?
Lord Deighton
My noble friend is precisely right that the restoration to capital expenditure which this Government have made through the 2010 spending round, the two Autumn Statements and the recent Budget, has restored capital expenditure levels to considerably above the previous Government’s plan.
Inequality: Income and Wealth
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
With respect to the 1% of the top taxpayers, the first point I would make is that actually they are responsible for paying 24% of income tax. The top 10% pay just under 50% of income tax—I think it is 44%—so their contribution to our revenues is the greatest in proportion. As for the development of inequality since this Government came into office, the commonly accepted measures of income inequality have in fact decreased.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
My Lords, will my noble friend confirm that the substantial increase in the capital gains tax levied, which was forced through the coalition by the Liberals, has led to a dramatic reduction in the revenue from capital gains tax?
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend for that question. I am not aware of the initial revenue yields. I asked the department earlier, and it said that it did not break it down that way. My noble friend clearly alludes to the importance in tax management of understanding the ultimate yield on a tax, rather than simply assuming that when tax rates are changed people will continue to behave the same.
Economy: Rating Agencies
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
I thank the noble Lord for those observations, which contain several of different questions. If you review Moody’s analysis of the UK economy you could not see a stronger recommendation of the Government’s policy of fiscal consolidation. I commend it to everybody as background to policy and why it is the appropriate one in these circumstances.
On the specific question about the impact of currency movements on the exposure of various lenders, my experience in those markets tells me that lenders manage their currency exposures very effectively and that the currency devaluation should not increase those particular exposures.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Will my noble friend confirm that it is the same rating agencies that are apparently of such concern to the Opposition which told us that the junk collections of mortgages, which in part caused the financial crisis, were AAA-rated? Should we not look at what is happening in the real economy rather than at what rating agencies are saying about it? Is it not true that my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer is presiding over a remarkable situation, given the shambles that he inherited from the previous Government?
Lord Deighton
As always, I thank my noble friend for his important observations. There are, again, several issues in there. First, he is absolutely right—Moody’s refers to this—that two things have caused this downgrade. The first is the sluggish growth of the global economy, which has slowed down the British economy; and the second is the very high levels of public and domestic debt, and the difficulty in driving those down.
On the second point, with respect to the credibility of the rating agencies, there are some very important issues surrounding that, particularly when one discusses complex securities such as the ones that we had in the mortgage-backed market. Frankly, with respect to the sovereign market, all the information used to determine credit assessments is perfectly visible to everyone, which is why the markets’ reaction to the downgrade on Friday was so measured.
Banking: LIBOR and EURIBOR
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
With respect to the noble Lord’s question on whether the attempt was successful, I think that is actually the issue. The FSA’s review found that it was unclear whether the manipulation did result in a change of rates, so that is an open question. On the degree of co-operation shown by the firms under investigation, I understand that the firms were entirely co-operative. Of course, they are all under new management and, effectively, are the new brooms trying to sweep clean. I am afraid that I cannot layer together the timing of that co-operation vis-à-vis the application of the US penalties, but I am happy to look into that and get back to the noble Lord.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Are the Government comfortable with very senior executives in the FSA, who are after all responsible for deciding those penalties, being able to move rapidly into employment with the banks at seven-figure salaries?
Government: Economic Policies
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
I agree with the implicit statement of the noble Lord that the economy is taking a long time to recover. That is because of the depth of the problems that we confront and the global nature of the economic recession with which we are dealing. There is only one effective solution to that, which is to restore market credibility. The only way in which we can do that is to ensure that our finances are absolutely stable. The alternative strategy of borrowing more to increase demand has already been proven, given the state that we got into, not to work. You do not borrow your way out of a recession which is caused by a deficit created by borrowing too much.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Will my noble friend confirm that the reason the Government are facing such terrible economic difficulties is because at the height of the boom created by Gordon Brown, that Government continued to borrow? As a measure of their economic competence, they sold gold at the bottom of the market, which is affectionately known in the City as the “Brown bottom”.
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend for that excellent contribution. I will not comment on the timing of selling the gold. Hitting a market high is tough to do. I will refer to what I would call the “scissors of doom”, which is the graph I was first shown when I entered the Treasury, which shows that between 2008 and 2010 spending was heading north at a rapid rate while receipts were heading south at an equally rapid rate, a situation that we are now trying to recover through this period of fiscal consolidation.
Economy: Growth
Debate between Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and Lord Deighton(11 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Deighton
My Lords, I thank all noble Lords for the serial welcome. It was very kind of noble Lords to recognise the extraordinary work that went on to deliver the Olympic and Paralympic Games in the summer. That was a big team effort. In fact, many of the team are distributed around this Chamber. I appreciate all those kind words and receive them on behalf of a magnificent national effort.
I shall clear up a few housekeeping points. My name is pronounced Deighton, as in height, if you want the precedent for the English pronunciation, not as in weight. Thank you for pointing that out. There was also a suggestion that it would be useful to spend as much time as possible in the Treasury. The arrangement with my right honourable friend the Chancellor is that I should concentrate my time at the Treasury, which is why I will be supported very closely by my noble friend Lord Newby in this Chamber.
I found the debate highly stimulating. I will be able to do my job better for having listened to all the contributions. I shall leave this debate feeling hugely positive, despite the many challenges that we face with our economy. I propose to make my comments not speaker by speaker but rather consistently against the most important themes in the debate. I shall begin with a review of what I think we heard about fiscal policy—the macroeconomic policy—and I shall then review monetary policy. I shall then talk about reform of the financial sector and finally I shall talk about the selection of things that we discussed that might generally fall into supply-side reforms, including all the discussion around infrastructure and capital projects. If I do not manage to address everybody’s points, I shall certainly write afterwards. I shall also try to focus my comments on what my noble friend Lady Kramer called “doing and delivering”. I think that is what I am here to do, so my focus will be on what we can accomplish rather than on the more esoteric elements of economic theory.
I thought there was a lot that was agreed on. The way I have always operated, particularly in business, is by finding the areas of collaboration and forging ahead on them rather than labouring on the areas of disagreement. However, with respect to fiscal policy, it seemed to me that there was one fundamental disagreement between us, at least in simple theory. I think it boiled down to a very simple question. Should we inject more demand into the economy to boost growth? It is a very fair question. It is quite extraordinary to me that nearly 40 years later we are still arguing about Keynesian economics, how effective monetary policy is and the size of the multiplier. I think that was in the first week. It also convinces me that I made the right choice not to be an academic economist. The debate does not seem to have moved on in those 40 years—we are still talking about the same things—so I am glad that I went out and did something, which I was probably better at because that was not going to work.
It all sounds very easy—we should just go out and borrow more, spend it, and hey presto everything is better. That feels an awful lot like the situation we found ourselves in between 2008 and 2010 when we overborrowed and overspent when the economy was right at the peak of its performance. There has been a lot of discussion about confidence. When deficit levels are at the levels they are, I do not think you reintroduce confidence into the economy by going back on a spending spree. It just does not make any sense to me. I have listened very carefully to what everybody is describing as plan B. I do not think plan B is a plausible alternative. How does it get financed? More borrowing. How does that stack up against the bond markets and interest rates? We have saved £33 billion by being able to borrow at lower rates than had been originally projected because of our success in winning the confidence of the markets. We do not want to lose that. It is absolutely critical.
It is also not entirely clear to me that there is such an enormous difference between us. We were unable to surface just how much extra money the alternative strategy would involve borrowing and whether that would make a huge difference. I was much more persuaded by the argument, which I think matches the analysis in the independent OBR, that the principal problem with demand has been external demand, particularly the reduction in demand in the EU. The right strategy in the long term, which is part of the supply-side solution—my noble friend Lord Howell was very clear about that—is all the work being done to switch our focus in markets to the rest of the world— the so-called BRIC economies—where growth is actually occurring.
We also had a lot of discussion around the capital budget and whether it had increased since the original plans of the previous Government. I do not really want to argue about too many statistics because we have had a lot thrown both ways. Essentially the plan we have now is about £10 billion more than the previous Government’s original plan.
I accept the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, about when the money is being spent but we have to understand that capital spending and infrastructure spending are not, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, said, a tap you turn on and off. There are long lead times. There are even longer lead times if you want to do this properly. A lot of this capital spending is not a panacea to solve a very short-term problem. In fact, thinking of it that way could create all sorts of difficulties and much more focus should be on ensuring that the projects that are mid-way through their gestation are now delivered into the economy in the right way. They are the ones that are going to have the immediate impact.
My noble friend Lord Lamont mentioned his concern about inflation. That was certainly one of the problems in 2011. The rise in commodity prices pushed our own inflation rate up, I think, above 5%. That had a significant impact on the cost of living. However, all the forecasters are looking at inflation stabilising over 2013-14 down towards the Bank of England’s target rate.
We have all referred to external agencies as supporters of our own cases. One side can produce the economists—the IMF. The other side can produce the chief executive. I could give a quote from the OECD that this is the right plan and we should stick to fiscal stability. We are all capable of producing people to support either argument. It just is not possible to bless your own strategy with the utterings of an external economist.
The noble Lord, Lord Desai, gave a very eloquent exposition of the long-term issues underlying the problems in the economy. I am not going to repeat that. I do not think that anybody particularly disagreed with much of it. However, I have a growth mentality and one of the things that attracted me to join this Government was that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor were very clear in their mandate to me. They said, “We need to deliver growth in this economy. We will support you to get that done in whichever way you can”. They convinced me that they were as committed to performance excellence as any of the other high performing organisations I have worked in. That is really what got me interested in doing this job. I was also very interested in the noble Lord’s comments on welfare. An absolutely key criterion in any of this has to be fairness. We can all argue about marginal decisions but I assure noble Lords that in my work at the Treasury the distribution effects of what we do are absolutely at the top of the criteria for assessing which measures we take.
On monetary policy, I was delighted to hear what I thought was pretty universal agreement that Mark Carney’s appointment was a good thing, if only because it speaks so highly of my right honourable friend the Chancellor’s recruiting skills. I was also a product of that although I was much cheaper.
We had a very interesting discussion about the impact of quantitative easing. Clearly, the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, is less convinced about its current efficacy but I think we are all interested in what the new regime will have by way of new ideas. However, we should all be extremely cautious before we suggest that ditching the inflation target is the obvious alternative thing to do. That is far from clear and is certainly not the Treasury’s position. In answer to the question asked by the noble Lord, Lord Davies, I think that the Bank of England is paying 0.5% on the commercial bank reserves held by the central bank.
On banking reform—
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
I am most grateful to my noble friend. Before he leaves quantitative easing, will he answer the question that a number of us raised about what happens when you unwind it?
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend for reminding me about unwinding quantitative easing. In summary, the central scenario predicted by the OBR is that it is expected to make a profit over its lifetime as the scheme is wound down but, as always with these things, that depends on a number of assumptions about the future yield curve, the exit, the pace of that exit, bank rate policy at the time and, of course, any changes to the size. However, those are the variables that go into that decision.
I think that all those who spoke about banking reform agreed that it was important to develop financing, particularly for smaller businesses, and that the Funding for Lending scheme, although in its early days, was showing every sign of being a successful scheme, so we are delighted with that introduction.
On the broader question of structural and regulatory reform, I could not agree more with the comments of a number of my noble friends that although it is absolutely critical to ensure that we have more resilience in the banking system so that the same mistakes are not made again, we have to be extraordinarily careful—I think the timing of the introduction of some of the measures reflects that—that we do not overshoot and significantly damage the banking system which exists to provide finance to the real economy. In my own mind, the real issue with many of these institutions has less to do with capital or liquidity rules and much more to do with the culture of leadership and management in those firms. We are beginning to see some promising signs of improvement there.
As regards the supply side, we have had many interesting contributions on small and medium-sized enterprises. I apologise to the noble Lord, Lord Mitchell, for the SME labelling, and note the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Birt. The United Kingdom is an extraordinarily successful incubator for small businesses. I absolutely take on board what my noble friend Lady Kramer said about thinking small. Two days ago I attended a small business forum. Everybody there was very supportive of all the initiatives that are going on. The discussion was all about implementation and taking advantage of things that are happening.
We have had a number of contributions on planning. No one ever puts forward the case that there should be more red tape, so we are all heroes in terms of our desire to cut it out and to enable faster planning permissions. As I think I mentioned in my opening speech, we have already cut 1,500 pages of planning policy and have speeded up the rate of approval of planning applications. My personal approach to this will be to follow through some of our projects to see where there are barriers and to use those as pilots for seeing where there are thematic problems that are holding up our delivery in the broader economy.
My noble friend Lord Lang referred to the defined benefit pensions issue. Rather than going through the details in my response, I will write to him separately on that. On the question of industrial strategy, I have sat in a number of meetings with my colleagues in BIS and they are absolutely focused on picking out where this country has competitive advantage and reinforcing that advantage in every way the Government can.
There has been a lot of debate on the subject of infrastructure. I want to focus on the fact that our investment in infrastructure is not about pump-priming the short-term economy. It is about modernising and improving our economy so that, over the longer term, its productive capacity is significantly enhanced. If, in the short and medium terms, that has the extremely attractive by-product of generating a significant number of jobs and short-term growth, then that is a dream package. However, that is the way around we should refer to it. There was quite a lot of discussion about roads: the ones that we have announced and have not built yet. There are a very large number of roads that we are currently building that were announced the time before: those are the lag periods. I am very interested in looking at schemes which allow us to take a longer-term perspective on creating the right investment package to support them.
The noble Lord, Lord Mitchell, was rightly concerned about broadband rollout. I have been focused on that as part of our rural broadband rollout and the urban strategy. Last month, the Chancellor announced a further £50 million to help 12 more cities deliver their ambitions for superfast broadband and I am working closely with my colleagues in DCMS and Broadband Delivery UK as well as the Economic Affairs Committee to drive delivery of that important rollout.
I see the value of smaller infrastructure projects, particularly those in local areas. This is highly consistent with implementing the reforms contained in the report by my noble friend Lord Heseltine, No Stone Unturned. For example, we have already launched 27 schemes with local authorities to help deliver that.