National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill

Lord Forsyth of Drumlean Excerpts

Committee stage
Wednesday 29th January 2025 Grand Committee

The argument in favour of the tax is, as the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, mentioned earlier, that an extra £26 billion of spending will be introduced into the economy and that this will increase the demand, so reducing unemployment. Defending this principle, the noble Lord pointed out that the vital issue is what the money is used for. With respect to him, money passing through the Government’s hands is not spent as wisely, as effectively and with the same discipline as in the private sector. In the private sector, if you get something badly wrong, you go bust; in the public sector, there is no such immediate discipline.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

You get a knighthood.

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[Lord Blackwell (Con)]

My Lords, I would like to put this discussion in the context of the profitability of the small businesses that we are talking about. The noble Lords who proposed these amendments have effectively made the point that many of these small businesses will be the engine of growth—the acorns that will develop and be the big businesses of the future. In successful small businesses, profitability varies tremendously, depending on the sector and capital intensity, but it would not be unusual for a business of this scale to have a net profit margin of around 10%. However, in some sectors, such as retail, hospitality and construction, that margin may be as low as 2% or 3%. When you are talking about adding 1% to the cost of employment, where the employment may be a significant part of the turnover, you can see that the impact on the net profit margin is potentially devastating, particularly since, in many cases, the percentage increase in their national insurance bill will be larger than 1%.

Clearly, we must be particularly concerned about start-ups because they are not yet successfully established trading businesses. They may have to undergo a number of years of losses before they get to that position. They accumulate those losses and they have to pay interest on those losses and, projecting forward, the additional costs may well tip the balance on whether those profitability equations earn an adequate return on capital to make the investment worth while.

Amendment 6 proposes to exempt businesses with a turnover of below £1 million. Obviously, that is a broad category to cover. We do not know exactly how many people are employed in such businesses but, as a rough proxy, the number of people employed in businesses with less than 50 employees is 47% of the entire UK workforce. We are talking about a significant part of the workforce being impacted by these changes, potentially in a significant way.

I heed the message from the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, that we should not be complicating the tax system, but the only reason why we are discussing these amendments is the proposal to increase national insurance. If the Minister does not want to accept a broad exemption for small businesses, it would be helpful to the Committee if the Government could suggest amendments that would exclude those businesses that we are particularly concerned about—the start-ups and those on narrow profit margins—and see if there is a way in which to ensure that the engines of growth in this sector are not destroyed or damaged.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I just want to follow up on that excellent point made by my noble friend. It is a long time since I ran a small business, but I can still remember the feeling of fear as to whether, as one started up, one was going to have enough to meet the payroll at the end of the month. There is pressure on client and other businesses and there are risks, and events can drive you off course. When you have produced your budget for the year and are reliant on certain things happening, out of a blue sky—actually, the Labour Government did not come out of a blue sky; that was obviously going to happen—you suddenly have to find all this extra money. The impact is harder on the smallest businesses of that kind. It is hard to quantify and saps the enthusiasm and drive among entrepreneurs when they are faced by this.

I am very supportive of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s determination to get growth in this country and the way she is going about it. However, as has been pointed out by several noble Lords—the noble Lord, Lord Blackwell, put it most crisply—small businesses are the ones that will become big businesses; they are the ones that will create the wealth, while the large businesses will shed labour. We keep being told how AI will mean that those businesses will be laying off labour. However, the small businesses are the ones that will be using artificial intelligence, if you believe it will be such a big change. They are the ones that will develop and use AI, but they are also being hammered and will find themselves facing great difficulty.

It is also the case that small businesses find it hardest to get support from the banks, because, increasingly, the large clearing banks are not interested. As we have heard in the Financial Services Regulation Committee, they are increasingly not interested in supporting SMEs. If the Chancellor’s determination is to get growth, hobbling small, embryo businesses is not a smart idea, if you are taking at least a longer-term view of three to five years.

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[Lord Howard of Rising (Con)]

Given what my noble friend has said, would he agree with what I said earlier: that, actually, the money does not come back into the economy and that, when it is taken out, those companies that have been hit so hard end up going abroad? It becomes so much cheaper and easier to manufacture abroad that, looking at it from a wider perspective, it is completely negative.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I completely agree with my noble friend. Actually, it is worse than manufacturing going abroad. Just think of this: where are the sorts of areas of business, in terms of distribution or marketing, where people are employed who are not particularly well paid but on whom there will be a big impact from this national insurance cost on the employers? They are in places like call centres. Suddenly you find that you get a huge additional bill for running your call centre, which you may be required to do as a matter of government regulation or for all kinds of reasons—it may not be directly related to your product. So what will you do? You will outsource it to India or some other country. The jobs will go, because it will be much cheaper. The quality may not be the same, but it might be the difference between surviving and not. So, as the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, pointed out, this national insurance thing has to be seen in the round. Then add all the other things that are going up: the energy costs, which are going up—

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

That is 10 minutes.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

It may be 10 minutes; I will sit down and then I will get up and make my speech again, if the noble Baroness likes. It is advisory.

There are energy costs that people are faced with, the impact of increasing regulatory burdens and the fact that people are just giving up. The lack of an impact statement, which seems to be becoming a habit for this Government, is a major criticism. They have already got into difficulty due to not doing this. They have had to revise the proposals they put forward for non-doms because they suddenly discovered that the impact of their policy would actually reduce revenue, so they had to change it. Had they done a proper impact statement, they would never have made that mistake—and there are other examples.

So these amendments are important, and I hope the Minister will take these arguments on board and think again.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

My Lords, I apologise; I was not in the country to be present during Second Reading, although I did have the chance to discuss this with the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, while we were supporting a much smaller economy than our own.

I support all the amendments in this group. I will speak later on the impact on the charities sector, in particular on social care homes, but I will concentrate now on the effect on business, in particular small business.

Small business is, of course, notoriously difficult to determine. There are all sorts of definitions of small business all over the legislation. The definitions that have been proposed are perfectly adequate. Companies House calls businesses small if their revenue is less than £10.2 million and they have fewer than 50 employees, and adds some balance sheet footing restrictions. Micro companies, however, are those that make less than £632,000.

One of the problems with the amendments—that can, as my noble friend Lady Noakes said, be revised—is how the Government will work out which companies are eligible for this reduction. As we know from our work on the Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Bill, Companies House does not require disclosure of revenue for these small companies, particularly if the balance sheet and employee numbers are lower. The numbers are there in HMRC but, as we have discovered, HMRC will not release them. This could of course be self-selecting.

I have to disagree with the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell— I say this as a qualified tax accountant who is always happy to sharpen his pencil—that there will be any money in this for tax accountants trying to find wiggle room. These proposals are the simplest and most effective way to reduce costs for small companies. The proposal that the noble Lord suggests—I think I quote him—of “subsidies or benefits” is much more complicated and dangerous. I accept that research and development tax credits do a good job, but subsidies and benefits for small companies in place of reducing national insurance would be a far greater administrative burden, in my opinion.

These amendments directly affect small businesses. As we have heard from a number of people, they will suffer because higher employment costs lead to lower hiring capacity and potential job costs. This will lead to lower wages, which will lower morale and lead to higher wages, with pressure on employers. It leads to less investment and growth. The inevitable lower profits, which I think my noble friend Lord Forsyth indicated, means that covenants are at risk, which is a real issue for small businesses because banks are not sympathetic to this issue.

I too declare an interest: like my noble friend Lord Forsyth, I started a business. I had one partner and one assistant, and I too had sleepless nights about how we were going to survive and pay the payroll. We have 220 employees now, but my experience makes me very concerned for the survival of small companies. It has to be said that, although the Government Front Bench in the other place have many skills, abilities and experiences, none of them has started a small business. None of them knows and understands the pressures the small business men and women face. The risk of starting a business means that they have typically put up money secured on their home and left gainful employment so to do.

I urge the Front Bench here to listen to those who have been through that and adopt the sensible suggestion to conduct a proper assessment of the implications of what has been proposed. As my noble friend Lord Forsyth said, there are clearly economic challenges, but there are other ways of sorting them. The best, in my opinion, is to think about the 9 million people who are economically inactive. Steps taken to get the economically inactive into employment will dramatically improve the economy, whereas constantly justifying everything by the infamous £22 billion black hole does not lead to a sensible discussion.

Andy Haldane said that the black hole event was

“unnecessary and probably unhelpful economically”.

The aforementioned OBR has said that

“it was unable to confirm chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claim that she inherited a £22bn ‘black hole’ in the public finances from the previous administration”.

To be fair, the Chancellor’s claim that the Treasury had not been transparent about the pressures on the public finances resonates, but the chair of the OBE himself said that he

“could not endorse the £22bn ‘black hole’ figure specifically”.

Mr Hughes told a press conference a few months after the Budget that it was simply “impossible to say”.

I refer your Lordships to an article in the Financial Times in which Mr Hughes “noted that other measures” the Chancellor

“had included in her estimate of the £22bn ‘black hole’”

included

“her own £9.4bn uplift to public sector pay”

without any productivity gains. The article went on to say that, sadly,

“the Treasury has failed to fully explain how it arrived at the £22bn number”—

I know that explanations have been given, but I do not think that they are satisfactory—

“declining to answer a Financial Times freedom of information request on the subject”.

What is the effect on the economy now? Well, less than three months after the Budget, a report from the respected insolvency practitioners Begbies says that it has seen the number of companies in critical financial distress climb by 50% to 48,000 businesses. Consumer-facing sectors in particular have highlighted the concerning picture in the UK economy. Sectors that are served by small businesses, such as hotel accommodation, show an increase in financial distress of 83%, while the leisure and cultural sector shows an increase of 76%. General retailers—they include small shops, such as sweet shops and so on—show an increase of 47%; and it is 37% for food and drug retailers. These are all very worrying states of financial health.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am following what my noble friend is saying carefully. He mentioned the number of people who are apparently economically inactive, as well as the great pressure that there is on low-margin hospitality businesses. What does he think is the likelihood of this measure resulting in larger numbers of people working in the black economy and the Government getting no tax receipts whatever? My noble friend will remember, from being on the Economic Affairs Select Committee’s Finance Bill Sub-Committee, the horrors that occurred with the loan charge: employers were asking people to be treated as if they were self-employed through agencies, which resulted in people getting enormous, life-changing bills. To what extent does my noble friend think that this imposition of costs will actually create all of these problems, to the disadvantage of the Treasury and many other people?

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

I am grateful to my noble friend for that comment, because it is clearly the case. Every single one of my corporate clients has told me that they have had to reforecast and rebudget with lower profit. Every single one has said that they are going to take steps to shave that back, and that those steps will include lowering their employment bill: they will either sack people, reduce hours or not recruit. Will that drive people into the so-called black economy? I cannot honestly answer that because I do not know, but the point is that none of us knows. This is why an impact assessment is so desperately needed before dangerous steps are taken to pressurise British business into—

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[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, I stand as a winding speaker but also as someone who attached their name to Amendment 22 from the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, which I think gets to the heart of the problem that we have with this Bill. To me, the most pernicious measure has been the dropping of the threshold, which has meant that trapped into employers’ national insurance contributions are the lowest paid and the part-timers. There is a disadvantageous impact on small businesses in hospitality and tourism, which are the backbone of so many communities and employ so many people for whom other work is very difficult to find. That makes it a really significant amendment, and I was very glad to attach my name.

I talked on an earlier set of amendments, essentially, about small businesses but also, more broadly, about tourism, hospitality and part-timers. I will not repeat that; the Committee has listened to me once on those issues and certainly does not need to hear me twice. I just make a small comment on why I am particularly concerned about the approach to small businesses, which is that it seems to me that the Government have put in some protections for what are genuinely micro-businesses but do not use “micro” and instead keep using “small”. The noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, identified the benchmark, which is about seven employees. Then you can start to do better under the changes that the Government have made. However, every time I read about the growth agenda, it requires the upscaling of our small businesses. This, in many ways, has been the British disease.

I was looking at reports from the ScaleUp Institute, which obviously does excellent surveys so you can get a granular feel of what is happening with many of these businesses. Most of them state that the first problem in scaling up is talent, but the second problem is access to finance. For a company that will now have to take on board additional costs—about £1,000 or more per employee—this will exaggerate that problem of access to finance. Many of them will now have to find finance in order to be able to cover the working capital that is engaged in paying higher employers’ national insurance. The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, in his excellent and interesting Second Reading speech, covered some of the issues associated with that credit.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

It was not a Second Reading speech; I was addressing the issues in the amendment.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

We will have to beg to differ on that.

I think that the Minister will turn around and say that a great deal is being done for small businesses that want to upscale and that we should look at the British Business Bank. We are talking about an entity that is so small that it really cannot meet this need, so there is a very big problem here to be addressed. It seems to me that the way in which the national insurance contributions increase will work will knock back the effort that has to be made to help people get through what is often known as the credit valley of death, so that they can go from being small to the thriving, upscaled businesses that we need to drive the growth that we need.

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[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I will simply restate my point to the noble Baroness: the approach that we are taking is absolutely in line with the approach taken to previous changes in national insurance and previous changes to taxation, and the Government do not intend to provide further impact assessments.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am most grateful to the Minister for giving way. I am slightly surprised, having listened to so many of his speeches since the general election, that he is holding up the practice of the previous Government as a standard by which he should be judged.

I asked specifically about the new proposals in the Budget for non-doms, which have turned out to be disastrous in terms of the number of people who have left, and which have forced the Chancellor to make changes. Does he not recognise that, had an impact statement been done, they might have discovered what the impact would have been? That is for the benefit not just of the Opposition but of the Government themselves. Accountability strengthens Governments; it does not weaken them. Can he not see that the idea of producing impact statements is absolutely central to the whole process of accountability and prevents the Government making disastrous mistakes of the kind that is proposed in this Bill?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I dispute the noble Lord’s description of the non-dom policy and the impacts that it has had. A tax information and impact note was put out alongside that policy, so we actually did put out an assessment alongside it.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

I am of course very familiar with that, but it was wrong, was it not? It was not an effective impact statement; otherwise, it would not have been necessary to change the policy.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

We have not changed the policy; we have made the policy easier to use. The policy is absolutely as it was at the Budget, as is the amount of revenue that we are scoring from it. An impact assessment was put out alongside that. My point is that what we are doing on impact assessments, on all the taxes that the noble Lord mentioned, is absolutely in line with what all previous Governments have done on impact assessments. We are content that that is a sufficient amount of information, and we do not intend to put out any further impact assessments.

Finally, I turn to the amendments tabled by the noble Lords, Lord Londesborough and Lord Altrincham, and the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, which seek to increase the employment allowance for small businesses. Again, the proposals in these amendments would create additional costs, necessitating either higher borrowing, lower spending or alternative revenue-raising measures.

The Bill already seeks to protect the smallest businesses and is significantly increasing the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that, next year, 865,000 employers will pay no national insurance at all, and more than half of employers will see no change, or gain overall, from this package. For the reasons I have set out, I respectfully ask noble Lords not to press their amendments.