Zimbabwe

Lord Chidgey Excerpts

Thursday 10th March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Chidgey]

It is always a privilege to follow the noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, in his contributions to this House. I say for the record how much I enjoyed his company and his wisdom in Sudan a couple of weeks ago. I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Dannatt, on his first speech to the House. I am sure that the definitive words that he gave us will be the first of many such contributions, to which we look forward. I also thank my noble friend Lord Avebury for bringing the debate to us today. His contributions over many years have always stimulated this House into making its views known on important issues of the day.

The debate comes at a time when there are developments inside Zimbabwe that give us some cause for pessimism, as many speakers have said. However, they are balanced by encouraging signs of more robust engagement within the region, which gives us slight cause for optimism, to which I shall come later.

Let me deal first with the threat to regional investment in Zimbabwe. The political and economic sabre-rattling by Mugabe will do nothing to encourage re-engagement by the international community. Conferences and initiatives to encourage investment in Zimbabwe, such as those in Harare in the past week or so, take place against a backdrop of a renewed threat by Mugabe, as set out in his recent birthday speech, to seize foreign businesses in the country. He was not talking only about EU or American investments in Zimbabwe. As Newsday, an independent newspaper in Zimbabwe, commented:

“Hardly a week after the ministerial statement on the Bippa with Botswana, birthday-boy President Robert Mugabe drove horses and chariots through the positive development on the signing of the Bippa … He also made threatening noises against South African-owned platinum miner Zimplats, accusing the giant mining firm of squirrelling profits across the Limpopo. He said Zimplats had ‘never given us any substantial money’”.

It is against that background that we can see that patience with Mugabe within the SADC region is wearing somewhat thin.

As for South Africa’s approach, Mugabe’s claim that he could call snap elections and bring an end to the power-sharing inclusive Government was countered by Deputy President Motlanthe of South Africa. He said that, when elections eventually take place, there will need to be international monitoring on the same scale as happened at the end of the liberation war when Rhodesia became Zimbabwe. He said:

“There would be a need for an international presence of the same scale, to ensure a bridge with the past”.

He said that the next elections were viewed by all parties as watershed elections and therefore they had to prepare for them thoroughly to ensure that there would not be any more violence and intimidation during the course of the election campaign. As the noble Earl, Lord Sandwich, mentioned, there is now a real window of opportunity. The European Union, the Commonwealth and UN institutions need to set in train the plans, preparations and funding arrangements for election monitoring. To be effective, that monitoring would need to be longer term than the normal election observer missions—both before polling and afterwards. I hope that the Minister will be able to tell us what we in the UK are doing to make sure that plans for such monitoring are put in hand. What budgetary planning is there for such an intensive programme? It will be expensive, but it will be money well spent. The recent announcement of a 15 per cent increase in the UK aid programme to Zimbabwe, which several noble Lords have mentioned, from £70 million to £80 million in the next financial year, is good news and I welcome it, but what resources are specifically set aside to ensure that a countrywide network of international monitors can be adequately resourced in staff and infrastructure?

On the contributions from the AU and SADC, President Khama of Botswana has consistently adopted a closely engaged and constructive stance on supporting political and economic progress in Zimbabwe. It is good that others from the region, such as Georges Chikoti, the Angolan Foreign Minister, are demonstrating support for the democratic aspirations of the people of Zimbabwe.

I hope that this debate will help the Foreign Secretary and the Minister for Africa to demonstrate the support that there is at Westminster and among the people of the United Kingdom for the people of Zimbabwe. The DfID aid budget has shown that over many years and, as I and others have said, it is still rising. The fact that we have a large Zimbabwean diaspora living in towns and cities throughout the UK also strengthens our ties with their families and friends in towns and villages across Zimbabwe. I hope that Ministers stress that financial commitment and those close personal ties when engaging with the AU and SADC on Zimbabwe.

In mid-February, the EU announced the rollover of restrictive measures on Zimbabwe for a further 12 months, with the arms embargo, the travel ban and the asset freeze remaining in place, as noble Lords have mentioned. At the time, the Foreign Secretary said:

“This rollover … reflects the fact that the economic progress that has been made since 2008 has not been matched by progress in key political areas such as the rule of law, democratic reforms and the creation of an environment conducive to free and fair elections”.

I am particularly concerned that the upsurge of political violence and intimidation that we are seeing now suggests that a pre-election intimidation campaign is gathering momentum. Can the Minister confirm that the United Kingdom remains committed to supporting the people of Zimbabwe? Last year, the UK gave its largest ever aid package to that country. With free and fair elections and a reforming Government in place, is it the case that the UK would significantly increase its aid to Zimbabwe over the next four years?

When we here at Westminster call for a greater sense of urgency from the AU and SADC in implementing the reforms set out in the global political agreement, it is because we want to see no delay in efforts to improve the lives of the millions of Zimbabweans who suffer hardship and poverty as a result of corruption and political repression.

In this context, it is important that the vexed question of security sector reform is tackled. It is quite possible to conceive a well run election with a proper voters roll taking place only for the process of transition to be thwarted by an intransigent military high command. All the indications are that support for ZANU-PF has fallen to a very low level right across the country, probably below 20 per cent. This poses a serious threat to senior officers in the army, the air force, the police and the intelligence services, who have vowed never to recognise Morgan Tsvangirai as President of Zimbabwe even if he wins elections. According to recent reports on ZimOnline, more than 80,000 youth militia, war veterans and soldiers will be deployed across the country in an army-led drive to ensure victory for Robert Mugabe in the next elections, which, according to the investigations, look set to be the bloodiest ever witnessed in Zimbabwe.

The investigations, which include interviews with Cabinet Ministers, senior military officers and ZANU-PF functionaries, revealed a desperate determination by the hard-line generals to thwart Tsvangirai even if he should somehow triumph against the planned violence. They plan to continue to wield a de facto veto over the country’s troubled transformation process. Serious thought, planning and financial resources must be put into reform of these sectors. It is not an easy area to tackle, but it is futile to plough resources into the development of Zimbabwe while the military continues to believe that it can thwart the democratic will of the people. A military veto of the transfer of power would not only be disastrous for Zimbabwe but have a serious impact on future development across the whole region.

The Joint Operations Command in Zimbabwe is made up of the top military commanders in that country. With the introduction of the inclusive Government, the JOC was supposed to be disbanded and replaced by the National Security Council. In fact, the JOC continues to operate as a political high command. Unless security sector reform is tackled urgently, the JOC poses a real threat to further progress towards reform and democratic government in Zimbabwe. I hope that in this, as in other areas, the Minister will be able to reassure not only this House but the people of Zimbabwe and the region that the UK stands ready as a friend and ally to support the aspirations of the people for political and economic progress.