Turkey

Lord Chidgey Excerpts

Thursday 13th January 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Chidgey]

My Lords, I, too, congratulate my colleague and noble friend Lady Hussein-Ece on a stunning opening speech in this important debate. She covered the issues so completely and so well that we are going to spend our time underlining the points she raised.

It might be the case that political developments within Turkey over the past decade or so have not been as some may have wished and that the direction of travel of Turkey’s foreign policy has caused some unease in some quarters. That is all the more reason why we should steadfastly engage with Turkey on the broadest front to secure that country’s rightful place on the eastern flank of Europe as a bridge to advance and defend our common interest in the Middle East, the “Stans” and beyond, as the noble Baroness and the noble Lord, Lord Trimble, mentioned.

It would be crass and probably naïve for Europe to turn her back on Turkey because negotiations to join the EU have become exasperatingly entangled or the shape and progress of Turkey’s development as a secular republic has been less than ideal. Beyond the obligations of the acquis communautaire, there is no “one size fits all” for the EU and nor should there be. Our excellent Library note provided us with background reading for this debate that sets out the key economic and strategic issues that irrefutably bind Europe and Turkey. Primarily, political, cultural and religious issues keep us apart.

The difficulties facing Turkey in meeting the criteria to become a full member of the European Union seem to grow rather than diminish. I would say that 2010 was a stagnant year for negotiations on the chapters of the acquis. There is clearly a long way to go before accession negotiation talks can near conclusion with the EU Copenhagen criteria fully met. That is assuming that Turkey does not lose interest in the EU and concentrates instead on cultivating already burgeoning economic growth and trade with its eastern and southern neighbours. Turkey’s annual trade with the Arab world now stands at some $30 billion, compared with less than $2 billion a decade ago. Meanwhile, in 2008, the volume of Turkey’s trade with the EU dropped below 50 per cent for the first time.

Turkey has not as yet resiled from its stated ambition to become a member of the EU. What matters is that the membership process continues through the mutual efforts of Ankara and Brussels. According to the Belgian Prime Minister, Yves Leterme, speaking to the Sunday Zaman last week:

“Some people in Turkey are asking whether Turkey’s future is in the EU or not; however, this is a question for Turkey itself. Europe has accepted Turkey’s candidacy, and the process is going on … Today, it is a fact that many Muslims live in Europe. The EU continent is dominated by Christian customs. A modern and contemporary Islam can definitely serve as a reference for Europeans”.

Given the present stalemate in the accession process, where do the Government stand on the points made by Mr Leterme in connection with Turkey’s inclusion in the EU?

It seems that increasing Turkish frustration with the EU and the United States’ perceived indifference to accession has persuaded Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to begin a “zero problems with neighbours” approach to regional foreign policy relations. It appears Turkey’s new foreign policy concept is to emerge as a regional hegemon through economic presence, interdependence and an increasingly influential diplomatic role. To this end Turkey has promoted visa-free travel within the former greater Syrian provinces of the Ottoman Empire, including Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. It has moved closer to Russia, China, Iran and the neighbouring Muslim states to the east. Russia became Turkey’s largest trading partner in 2008, and in 2010 an agreement was signed to construct a $50 billion nuclear plant near Mersin on Turkey’s southern coast. That burgeoning economic relationship has facilitated a no-visa treaty between Turkey and Russia, bringing the two countries even closer together.

Turkey’s present position can perhaps best be understood by the remarks of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in his keynote address to ambassadors meeting in Ankara on 3 January. He told the diplomatic corps that from now on Turkey will be at the forefront of restructuring the world order, taking the role of “game setter” and that of a “wise country”. Turkish diplomacy will be active in diagnosing regional and global issues and in developing appropriate alternative responses. Ankara will make its voice heard and will make an impact.

Commentators within Turkey see this concept as an end product of its emergence as a “rising power”, able to expand its sphere of influence in the region and the globe. Turkey is rapidly growing and developing but also faces serious problems internally, as well as externally. Analysts in Turkey believe that before rushing towards “global power” status, it might be better to prioritise funding solutions to these problems. Leaving the Kurdish question to one side, there are a wide range of internal political, economic and social issues that have yet to be resolved within the country. Externally, the issues of Cyprus and Armenia, and of relations with Israel and the EU, fill the foreign policy agenda.

The considered view of Sami Kohen, for example, writing in the Hurriyet—the daily Turkish English-language paper—is that these problems should not prevent Turkey from pursuing an active foreign policy agenda. It is, however, unrealistic to spend more time and energy, and resources, on external issues while there are still so many problems to deal with in the country. In short, the vision of “global opening” gives a new focus for Turkish diplomacy, but one that should be followed with balanced and prudent caution.