Budget: Press Briefings

Debate between Lord Bridges of Headley and Lord Livermore

Tuesday 18th November 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My noble friend is absolutely right to say that there is always speculation ahead of a Budget. As he knows, I am not going to comment on the bond markets, but he is right to point out that the Liz Truss mini-Budget crashed the economy and sent interest rates soaring.

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords, on 10 November, the Chancellor said on BBC Radio:

“It would, of course, be possible to stick with the manifesto commitments, but that would require things like deep cuts in capital spending”.


Does that statement still stand?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

As I have said, I am being told by noble Lords opposite that speculation is wrong and now the noble Lord is asking me to speculate. As I have made very clear, I will not be commenting on individual tax measures.

Economic and Taxation Policies: Jobs, Growth and Prosperity

Debate between Lord Bridges of Headley and Lord Livermore

Thursday 13th November 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I do not think I have misrepresented the situation in any way, shape or form. The OBR forecast that around two-fifths of the 4% impact had already occurred by the time the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force and that GDP will be 2.7% lower by 2025, with the remaining reduction occurring by 2030, meaning the economy will be over £100 billion smaller than it otherwise would have been.

As I was saying, we have also heard from some of the most enthusiastic acolytes of Liz Truss about how to grow the economy, despite the Liz Truss mini-Budget crashing the economy and sending mortgage rates spiralling. I think we have long since abandoned any hope of an apology to the British people from the party opposite for its record on the economy over 14 years, but what is still shocking is its inability to show even the slightest hint of self-awareness for the damage it did to the British economy over the past 14 years or any awareness that that damage continues to scar our economy today, as my noble friend Lord Davies of Brixton clearly set out.

The reality of that record over 14 years is stark, as my noble friend Lord Liddle said. First, there was austerity, mentioned by my noble friend Lady O’Grady of Upper Holloway, which took demand out of the economy at exactly the wrong moment and cut investment, undermining the economy’s ability to grow, and left us ill-prepared for the future. Then a disastrous and tragically misjudged Brexit deal—interestingly, not mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Elliott, in his opening speech—imposed new trade barriers equivalent to a 13% increase in tariffs for manufacturing and a 20% increase in tariffs for services, reducing total trade intensity by 15%. As a result, as I have said, the economy will be over £100 billion smaller by 2030.

The combined effect of these costly mistakes was devastating. Had the UK economy grown by the average of other OECD countries over those 14 years, it would be more than £150 billion larger today. The previous Parliament was the worst ever for living standards. Inflation hit 11.1% and was above target for 33 months in a row. The noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, mentioned business investment. She may recall that, under her Government, the UK had the lowest private investment levels in the whole of the G7, productivity growth entirely stalled and output per worker grew more slowly than in nearly every other G7 country.

These policy errors, chronic instability and low levels of investment have left deep scars on the British economy, as my noble friend Lord Eatwell set out. As mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Harper, alongside the forthcoming Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility will set out the conclusions of its review into the supply side of the UK economy. I will not pre-empt those conclusions today, but the OBR may downgrade the historic assessment of the UK’s productivity and may conclude that the productivity performance we inherited from the previous Government was even weaker than previously thought.

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

Can the Minister clarify that his argument is that the Government have made no policy errors regarding their economic management over the last year?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am only five minutes into my speech; let us hear my whole speech before we conclude on that.

The OBR’s productivity assessment will be a look in the rear-view mirror, but the past mistakes of the previous Government do not need to determine our country’s future. While the record of the past 14 years may be even worse than previously realised, it underlines the importance of delivering higher and more sustainable economic growth, which has been the defining mission of this Government since we entered office. The noble Lords, Lord Elliott, Lord Harper and Lord Bridges, and the noble Baronesses, Lady Noakes and Lady Neville-Rolfe, mentioned today’s growth figures. While they are, of course, lower than any of us would want to see, they confirm that the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year and show just how much more there is to do.

We will move further and faster with our growth strategy, set out clearly many times and built on the three pillars of ensuring economic and fiscal stability, reforming the economy and increasing investment. It is welcome that the IMF has said that this strategy focuses on the right areas to increase productivity. This strategy recognises that growth comes not from government but from businesses and investors and that there is a role for a strategic state, not to step back and let businesses fend for themselves, but to act in partnership with business by systematically removing the barriers to growth that it faces.

The first pillar, stability, is the foundation all else is built on. That began with the Government’s first Budget last October. The noble Lords, Lord Harper, Lord Swire and Lord Leigh of Hurley, could not help but mention the £22 billion black hole in the public finances we inherited, which the previous Government sought to conceal from the OBR, but once again—

National Insurance: Partnerships

Debate between Lord Bridges of Headley and Lord Livermore

Monday 10th November 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords, may I ask the Minister a very simple question? In terms of his definition of a working person, is a partner in a law firm a working person?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I applaud the noble Lord’s attempt at his question. I am not going to comment on individual tax measures right now.

Taxes

Debate between Lord Bridges of Headley and Lord Livermore

Tuesday 15th July 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her question. It was premised on a hypothetical, and I am not going to speculate on the next Budget now. I absolutely understand the issues that she is raising, and I am very happy to take those points back to my colleagues in the Treasury.

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords, the Minister has said several times in this Chamber that the Government have no present plans to introduce a tourism levy. Will he repeat the same pledge about a wealth tax?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question, and I should start by wishing him a very happy birthday. I have said what I have said on tax. I am not going to give a running commentary on the fiscal forecast, nor am I going to speculate on tax rises now. As I said, we will do things in the usual way. The Chancellor will ask the OBR to produce a new forecast in the autumn for the annual Budget and will take decisions on that based on that forecast.

Tax on Imports under £135

Debate between Lord Bridges of Headley and Lord Livermore

Monday 14th July 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The Department for Business and Trade has set out our measures to try and prevent that from happening, and it will continue to monitor it, as you would expect it to.

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords, broadening the topic on taxation a little, at the weekend the Transport Secretary said that in Labour’s manifesto it committed not to put up taxes on people on modest incomes. Can the noble Lord tell us the Treasury’s definition of a modest income?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The Government have pledged not to increase taxes on working people, which is why we are not increasing income tax, national insurance contributions or VAT.