(4 weeks, 2 days ago)
Grand CommitteeMy Lords, I shall briefly speak in response to the noble Baroness, and I once again draw attention to my interest as an adviser to the chairman of Santander. I want to make three quick points.
First, I overwhelmingly agree with the thrust of the amendment. I think analysis of this critical issue is important for the reasons that the noble Lord, Lord Pitt-Watson, said. He will know much better than I do how notoriously difficult it is to compare the regimes of the United States, the UK and the EU. If noble Lords are interested in this and cannot sleep, I advise them to look online at recent reports that have come out. The Financial Times reports a law firm called Alvarez & Marsal pointing to the impact of the US’s current moves in prudential regulation and how that has unleashed a considerable amount of bank capital. Meanwhile, the ECB has pushed back with its own analysis showing that the US and the EU are broadly on par, so we cannot compare the others. The European Banking Federation has recently come out with its analysis of this issue.
As far as I can see—I stand to be corrected by others—a lot of this depends on how we measure not just the regulatory and prudential aspects but the supervisory actions, and how supervisors can put buffer upon buffer, depending on the banks, the GSIPPS and who you are looking at within the perimeter. This analysis will be very important, and it could be very worthwhile, but it has to try to overcome the enormous problem that exists, now matter we how bridge it. That is the first point.
The second point, flowing from that, is that the more I look at this, the more I think that the objectives—and, underlying those, the culture—of the regulators and supervisors seem to be almost more important here. When you look at the difference in regulatory approach, be it by the Singaporeans or the US, you find that it is largely a matter of the culture within those bodies, where they are coming from and the messages that the politicians are sending them.
I will cite just one example. Picking up on what the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, said—we disagree on this violently, I know—I am very interested in the US approach. Secretary Bessent in the US Treasury gave a speech about eight months ago where he told the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is a key body that brings together regulators and supervisors, that low growth was in itself a financial stability risk—let me repeat that: low growth was a financial stability risk—and that they needed to act accordingly. That sent a signal, as far as I can tell, throughout the entire regulatory and supervisory environment in Washington and the States, and they have acted accordingly. That has had more of an impact than necessarily what the capital requirements are for various bodies.
The final point is on SMEs. We will not have a long debate about this, but I would make one point here about the demand from SMEs for lending. We can debate the role of capital requirements—I think there is more of a role for and more impact from capital requirements on bank lending than perhaps the noble Baroness does—but where we would probably agree is that it is the overall general environment in which SMEs are operating that will stimulate demand for lending. If you have a Government who are piling pressure after pressure on SMEs—to be taxed more on employment, to have more regulation, et cetera—that will dent their demand for lending and for more investment. That is what will happen. Therefore, it is very important that we look at that issue per se in the round. With that, I will sit down.
I probably have a right to reply, because it is Committee and we can speak more than once. The noble Lord, Lord Bridges, and I often find a whole lot of common ground, and I agree completely that the environment in which SMEs are operating is extremely difficult. However, if he goes back and looks at the numbers produced by the Federation of Small Businesses, he will find that there is significant demand for borrowing, which is continuously turned down and rejected. I just want to make sure that the noble Lord understands that side of the picture.
I have no problem with people going away, as I said, and doing proper analysis and trying to understand exactly what the picture is, but there is another side to that, and it is not included in this amendment. If I was amending it, I would add a line, because we need an analysis of the cumulative risk that has been reintroduced into the financial sector by everything from Solvency UK to the whole range of changes—I think I listed them once in a Second Reading speech, and it went on for nearly a page and a half—that have been made. Measuring that cumulative risk would be extremely instructive to us when we start to look at issues such as financial stability. But for goodness’ sake, if we are reducing financial stability to no more than a “have regard”, which is exactly what this amendment would do, we are stepping into really dangerous territory.