Arctic Ice Cap

Lord Brett Excerpts

Monday 6th December 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Brett]

My Lords, when I left home this morning, I trudged through the snow to the car. My wife, who was kindly driving me to the station, asked what we were discussing this evening. I said the melting of the Arctic ice cap. She pointed out that the temperature was minus 11 degrees. I was going to offer some scepticism, but I decided that as I needed the lift I would not seek to educate her on the issue at that time. But she will be educated, I am sure, if I can persuade her to read Hansard and the excellent debate we have had. I am very grateful, as others are, to the noble Lord, Lord Jay, for setting it out so clearly. I would like to begin by looking at the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Alderdice, of security. There are a couple of very interesting RUSI documents: one by Clive Murgatroyd published last year called Defence and the Arctic—Go with the Floe?; and another by Paul Berkman. They raised the question whether there is any choice other than having a zone of peace or an enhanced military presence, with all the danger that that brings. I would be interested to hear what the Minister has to say about that.

A number of noble Lords have set out the opportunities provided by the melting of the Arctic ice cap and have rightly described some of the repercussions. Sometimes our media and our own enthusiasm will not give true weight to some of those issues. I have rarely seen the albedo effect, mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Jenkin of Roding, argued other than in the most scientific and technical journals.

Access to oil and gas will be an issue, not only because of the unpredictable seas but because of the thawing permafrost. There is also the very real question of oil spills, which could be a major problem under ice, because it could spill for many hundreds of thousands of miles. That points, as all these questions do, to international co-operation, licensing and safety regimes. Then there are the fisheries. It is perhaps not so much a question of the ice cap melting that is the issue with fisheries, but as a result of that fish stocks will migrate to other areas. Sustainable fisheries management is the key. Again, that talks of the need for international co-operation, if we are not to see some of the problems that we have seen in the past decade or two repeat themselves.

We have the question of commercial shipping. Yes, there are insurance opportunities, but someone’s opportunity for enhanced insurance premiums is someone else’s penalty in having to pay them. More importantly, whatever shipping is used in those new routes, emergency cover is probably more difficult to provide than where we are at the moment. I join with others in asking what action the Government have in mind to meet these challenges in the IMO, with NATO, the EU and other international forums, by way of enhanced regulatory frameworks and increased collaboration. Specifically, what are the prospects of the United States signing up to the UN law of the sea convention? We have heard words from Washington to suggest that that is an intention, but is it a realistic intention, particularly in the light of shifts of power within Congress?

I finish with an important point from a domestic point of view—the impact of rising seas on the coastlines of Britain. We have seen various estimates of how the seas could rise as a result of melting ice caps, including one of 2 metres by the end of this century, which has been pooh-poohed or debunked, not least by the Met Office and others. But there will certainly be substantial increases. The last Administration made urgent legislation to protect homes and businesses, and the Environment Agency says that more than 5 million properties are at risk in England and Wales. We have yet to hear from the Government what flood defence schemes will be abandoned in the new austerity era and what will go ahead. Will the Minister share his thinking with us—and, if that is not possible in his oral response, can I have a response to that in writing?