Economy: Public Finances

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, any commitment by the Labour Party would have a lot more credibility if we had even the vaguest clue as to how it was going to get the deficit down.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

Would the Minister agree that one reason for the credit crunch and the financial crisis seven years ago was the prolonged low rate of interest of 5% a year? Now that the Government have extortionate debt servicing costs at a 0.5% base rate, what plans do they have when interest rates go up, as they will? How will they service those costs, and at what rate are they borrowing for long-term debt at the moment?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, one of the main reasons why we need to get debt under control is that the long-term borrowing costs are very significant. Whatever the interest rate, even with current low rates of interest, we are spending 2.5% of GDP per annum on servicing it, significantly more than we spend on the aid budget. Because interest rates are low and because we have a very credible economic policy, we have been able to borrow long term at low interest rates—but none the less we need to get the debt down because we want to get the borrowing costs down.

Income and Wealth Inequality

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Wednesday 26th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I just think that the noble Lord’s figures are wrong. On inequality, I would like to quote Chris Giles from last week’s Financial Times, since noble Lords opposite clearly find it difficult to accept what I am saying about it.

“Since 2008, the earnings distribution has been flat as a pancake. And because the coalition government has protected people dependent on social security more than the working population, inequality of net incomes has edged down”.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, does the Minister agree, following the noble Lord, Lord Stern, that the Gini coefficient has gone up significantly over the last three decades? There is no question about that, regardless of who has been in government. Does he agree that the living standards of people in this country are far higher than three decades ago, when Britain was the sick man of Europe?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I absolutely agree with the noble Lord. Noble Lords will be aware that real incomes are starting to rise again and are projected to do so over the next three or four years by all reputable forecasters.

Defence: Budget

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Tuesday 11th November 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, following on from the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord West, does the Minister agree that the SDSR in 2010 was means before ends? It was negligent in that we had unpredicted events, one after the other—Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine—and our Armed Forces cannot even fill Wembley Stadium. Will the Minister assure us that we will stick to the 2% spending commitment to NATO and that we will not cut our Armed Forces any more?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Government are committed to that 2% for the remainder of this Parliament and into the next Parliament and to keeping the defence equipment budget growing. Any commitments in the medium term beyond that are commitments that the parties will be making in their manifestos.

Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Monday 14th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, that is what the Bank of England Act says. The Monetary Policy Committee is operationally independent. The remit of the Monetary Policy Committee has to be set by the Governor of the Bank of England. It has to be renewed every year. It was renewed this year. The difference between this year and previous years is that the Chancellor asked the governor to look at possible methods of forward guidance which would give greater certainty to the markets about the medium-term movement of interest rates and, indeed, QE. That is exactly what the governor did, in line with the request from the Chancellor which was in line with the provisions of the Bank of England Act.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I join in wishing the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, a very happy 90th birthday. He has asked an excellent question in that it relates to forward guidance. For a long time I have been saying that when setting interest rates the Governor of the Bank of England and the Monetary Policy Committee should look not just at inflation targeting but at the wider economy. This is excellent news. However, is it wise that the governor should tie himself down to a specific level of 7% unemployment, after which interest rates are to be raised, unless inflation is going out of control? When does the Minister think that the 7% will be achieved? Secondly, would it not have been wiser to have had a wider remit taking into account other aspects of the economy, not just inflation targeting?

[Lord Newby]

As the noble Lord says, the governor is now looking at unemployment in terms of when interest rates might change, but there is no iron rule that the moment unemployment rates hit 7%, interest rates will go up. There are three potential arguments which would mitigate against that, of which by far the most important is if the outlook for inflation was higher. As to when we might reach 7%, in August when the Bank of England published its report suggesting this, it thought it would be in the third quarter of 2016. The good news is that since then the economy has grown more quickly, and the consensus is now settling around summer 2015.

Bank of England

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Tuesday 22nd January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Question that has been raised, about whether to change the inflation target, is an important one. Before any change is made, however, the question that we have to answer conclusively is: what could the MPC do under that target that it cannot do now? A debate is currently going on that is academic in part and in which all the commentators are involved. For the time being, however, we see no reason to change the current framework.

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords, the Government should be congratulated on appointing Mark Carney and for the first time bringing in somebody from outside the United Kingdom to serve as Governor of the Bank of England. It shows not only what an open country and economy we are but that we can get a fresh input of ideas—such as the suggestion that we should look at GDP as a target as well as interest rates. I think that the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, probably meant to ask whether the Bank of England should look at inflation targeting as well as targeting GDP—as the Fed in America always has—to help growth in the economy.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I am extremely grateful to the noble Lord. The House will be aware that under the Bank of England Act the MPC has to meet, or aim to meet, an inflation target. Subject to that, it has to aim to promote the Government’s broader economic objectives. It is worth pointing out that in the past 20 years, the vast bulk of which have been conducted under the current regime, we have had an inflation target of 2%, inflation having been one of the main economic problems facing this country over recent decades. Against a target of 2%, the outturn has been 2.1%, so it has been a pretty effective target.

United States Budget: Economic Impact

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Monday 10th December 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I agree with the noble Lord that the US economy is extremely important to our exporters. Last year, we exported £80 billion of goods and services to the US, which amounted to 16% of our total exports. However, perhaps I have watched too many episodes of “The West Wing” but I suspect that a deal on the US budget will be done in time, albeit at the last minute.

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords, it is estimated that if the US falls off its fiscal cliff, its GDP will fall significantly. Will the Minister admit that, following the Chancellor saying in the Autumn Statement that deficit reduction will now take three years longer, we in this country have already fallen off our own fiscal cliff?

[Lord Newby]

No, my Lords, the situation is quite the opposite. The fact that the Government took decisive action in 2010 to effect a fiscal consolidation over a number of years—and then flexed that, given the severe headwinds that we faced from the eurozone—means that we are not faced with a fiscal cliff and we are now looking to a period of growth next year that will be higher than that anticipated in, for example, the eurozone.

Public Expenditure: Deficit Reduction

Debate between Lord Bilimoria and Lord Newby

Tuesday 6th September 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords—

[Lord Bilimoria]

My Lords—