Brexit: Customs Procedures
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby(6 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Bates
As the noble Lord will know, those are technical matters; it is officially for the Speaker in the other place to determine what is a money Bill and what is granted a certificate. On the importance of that Bill and debating it, he is certainly right. In the other place, the Treasury Select Committee and the Public Accounts Committee have been looking at and probing the system’s readiness, as they should. We published a trade White Paper, which had a tremendous amount of feedback that we have incorporated and learned from. We have also published working papers on future partnerships that we have shared with our European colleagues because we want to make sure that the borders work well together.
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, the Minister implied in his Answer that because additional requirements were to be dealt with online, there would be no additional cost. Those of your Lordships who have done things online find this a somewhat dubious assertion. Does he accept that for small businesses even doing business with Norway now, which is inside the customs union, involves a significant amount of additional time and that if we are not within the customs union, and certainly being outside the EU, small businesses will need to spend much more time filling in customs forms online? For many, that will make the difference between trade being viable and not viable.
Lord Bates
We have to try to reduce that. The fact that manufacturing output is now in its fastest growth period for 23 years and unemployment at its lowest level for 42 years shows that businesses—the majority of which in this country are small businesses—are doing well in this environment. This was a particular consideration of the making tax digital discussion that we had: obviously, we believe that technology does not impinge on small businesses to a degree that reduces their competitiveness. We believe technology can enhance competitiveness, not reduce it.
Aid Reviews
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby(7 years, 11 months ago)
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Lord Bates
I thank the noble Lord for his welcome for the Statement and for the commitment the Secretary of State and the department have to continuing the fight against extreme poverty around the world. He asked a number of questions and I will try to address them.
The funding for bilateral country programmes is set out in the annual report, but for only two years. Obviously, the situations in question are fast moving and dynamic, such as what is currently happening in Syria and the Middle East. Therefore, resources have to be targeted where they are needed most. We will make clear our funding for future programmes when the annual report is published next year.
As to whether programmes will change or close, again, that will be driven by the priorities we face and the targets we have. We are rightly constrained by delivering on certain targets, not only by our manifesto commitments on education but by the sustainable development goals to be achieved by 2030, which will be a focus for us.
The noble Lord mentioned getting time for a debate. I personally support that but I am aware that I have by my side the distinguished figure of the Deputy Chief Whip. I am sure that, through the usual channels, time for these matters can be arranged.
On the point about exiting the European Union, we have, of course, a department for that. It is good to put on record and show up—it is a benefit of this process of bilateral and multilateral development reviews—who are the high performers and who are not. The noble Lord is absolutely right that among the high performers is the European Development Fund. Given that we have a global commitment to target disease, look at the humanitarian effort and reduce conflict, we will continue to work with our European colleagues in pursuit of that. The question whether that happens through that fund or through supranational institutional funds such as the UN’s, which also got a number of high ratings, will be dealt with in the course of that review process.
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, the challenges facing the world are no respecters of national boundaries. Will the Minister commit the Government to standing up against the retreat from multilateralism that can be seen both in our country and across the world and to defending global institutions such as the UN against the rise of isolationism?
Lord Bates
I do not recognise the retreat from multilateralism. We are gearing up on that—we are talking about the Global Fund and GAVI. In many of the areas we need to reach, we cannot work nationally or regionally, so it is essential that we work globally. We are absolutely committed to that effort.
Economy: Growth
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby(11 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Newby
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Soley, for initiating this debate because he asks the single most important question facing the country: how do we get more growth? He and the noble Lord, Lord Davies, have a relatively straightforward answer. Sadly, we believe that it is the wrong answer. Their answer is to borrow more. It was not the answer of the previous Labour Government. The Fiscal Responsibility Act required the Government to have halved the deficit by the financial year 2013-14. I am not sure whether the Labour Party has finally and formally renounced that legislation, but that was the course that it set.
The noble Lord, Lord Soley, points out that we had 225% of GDP borrowing after the Second World War, but I should have thought that he could see that the circumstances at the end of the Second World War were so fundamentally different in almost every respect from those of today that that is not a useful analogy.
There are a number of reasons for getting the deficit down. In my view, the most clearly demonstrable one is that a higher deficit and an incredible fiscal consolidation programme would undoubtedly lead to higher interest rates. Why is it that at the end of last week the UK was paying 1.84% on its debt, the US was paying 1.86%, Italy was paying 3.89%, and Spain 4.25%? The answer is: because this country has a credible economic policy in which the markets believe. Without that, there is no reason why our interest rates could not rise by 1% or 2%. Bear in mind that a 1% increase in interest rates means that a mortgage payer with a £100,000 mortgage is paying out an extra £1,000 per year, leaving aside the additional costs to industry and the additional billions of pounds extra that the Government will be paying to service their debts.
When the Government came in, national debt was running at 11.2% of GDP. That was possible in a crisis. I do not think anybody believes that such a level of national debt, which seems to be the level that the Opposition are talking about—we still have national debt running at more than 7%—is sustainable. The noble Lord, Lord Soley, talked about Keynes. People disagree about Keynes, but I am pretty certain that he never advocated sustained levels of borrowing over a long period. He knew, as everyone else knows, that although such a thing is possible, and desirable, over a short period, it is not possible in the long term.
Today, in part, we have been discussing another of Keynes’s aphorisms, which is hugely important at the point at which we find ourselves in the economic cycle: his emphasis on the role played by “animal spirits”, to use his phrase, on investment decisions and a whole raft of economic decisions. Indeed, that was the burden of the speech by my noble friend Lord Bates. At this juncture, the turn in the cycle that we are clearly seeing will accelerate because the view of people in the markets—“animal spirits”: what people are saying to each other—is changing positively.
I would like to address specifically several of the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Soley, about the components of growth. Indeed, most of these features have been about one or more components of the growth picture. I start with infrastructure, where there was widespread agreement that more needed to be done. Last year, according to the World Economic Forum, the overall quality of our infrastructure was 24th in the world. We do not believe that this is good enough, which is why we are investing more in transport infrastructure in this Parliament than was the case under the previous one. Our railways are seeing the largest programme of investment since the Victorian era. Incidentally, I am pleased to see, as I am sure the noble Lord, Lord Soley, is, that the amount of freight carried on the railways is going up significantly, which reverses a very long-term trend and is very welcome.
Total public and private investment in infrastructure between 2010 and 2012, at £33 billion per year, is higher than that of the final five years of the previous Government. At Budget 2013, the Chancellor unveiled an increase in capital spending plans by £3 billion per year from 2015-16. That is in addition to the £5.5 billion of investment in infrastructure announced in last year’s Autumn Statement. This included £1.5 billion for the road network.
The noble Lord, Lord Soley, and my noble colleague Lady Kramer talked about airports, which is clearly a significant component of the nation’s infrastructure. I do not believe that there is total agreement that we need to have a major national airport hub in this country, but the Government believe that it is a requirement. As noble Lords know, the Airports Commission, headed by Sir Howard Davies, is looking at airport capacity in the short and the long term. We are looking forward to seeing his interim report later in the year. In the mean time, Heathrow has spent £1 billion upgrading and Gatwick is spending £1.2 billion, so it is not as though our airports are atrophying. We know that it is a long-term issue and has been a long-term problem with no consensus within or between parties, but that is what the Davies commission is looking at.
The noble Lord, Lord Soley, talked about housing, which again is a long-term challenge. All parties have taken their eye off that issue over the past decade as house prices have risen inexorably and the proportion of the population owning their own homes has risen. There are three components to improving the stock and appropriateness of housebuilding. First, we have to make it easier to build houses. Secondly, we have to help to supply more houses. Thirdly, we have to make sure that there are no artificial restraints on demand for housing.
We believe that the National Planning Policy Framework, which we published in March 2010, has had some effect in a positive direction. The proportion of planning applications being approved is at a 10-year high, a significant proportion of which are around housing. As for building more houses, we already have an £11 billion commitment in the spending review. The Budget 2013 announced a housing package totalling £5.4 billion, including the Help to Buy and mortgage guarantee schemes. There is a lot of activity on that front. However, I agree with most noble Lords that we have to do more, and we are actively attempting to do so in three strands: to make it easier to get planning, to help have more finance to build houses, and to make it easier for people to afford a mortgage.
The international component of our economic activity is clearly crucial. To rebalance the economy, we need to export more. Last week’s evidence of a narrowing of our trade deficit is a positive sign that UK exporters have faced significant challenges in recent years. Yesterday’s data confirmed that the recession in the euro area, which is our most important export market, continued in the first quarter of this year. Therefore, as the noble Lord, Lord Marland, explained, we are right to be looking more widely.
In the period 2009-12, our goods exports to China increased by 96%, to Brazil by 49%, to Russia by 133% and to India by 59%. Last year, while our exports to the rest of the EU fell by 2.5%, our exports to the rest of the world rose by 1.2%. While we look elsewhere, we should not forget that we are still exporting 42% of our goods and services to the eurozone. As we try to get more SMEs involved in exporting, many will go to the eurozone because it is so much easier for a whole raft of reasons. Getting on a plane or a train to get to a potential export market in an hour is very different from going to Brazil or China.
I have seen that with a small manufacturing company in West Yorkshire which exports mainly to Europe. Through its website, out of the blue it has had a couple of orders from Brazil for £25,000, which is pretty good for this company. The question is what it will do to capitalise on it. It has no idea who the people are who have asked for this export. The directors have had a long discussion about whether they should go to Brazil. Eventually, they decided that they would go but the cost, in time and money, meant that that was a very difficult decision. If that order had come in from Spain, they would have been off straightaway. Therefore, as we rightly put more emphasis on the rest of the world, we must not ignore the fact that the bulk of our exports are to the EU and will remain to the EU. The EU is where people dipping their toe in the export market will start.
Over the past year, we have increased UKTI’s budget by £70 million to help to deliver world-class services to move SMEs into exports and to focus our activities on the high-growth market. I hope noble Lords will feel that we are making a real impact in that crucial area.
My noble colleague Lady Kramer discussed the challenge of corporates paying the right amount of tax, an area on which we the Government have put a lot of additional emphasis. At the G8 meeting, we made clear that international tax avoidance and rebalancing the rules around taxation are our top priority. At the recent meeting of G8 Finance Ministers, which included George Osborne, it became clear that we had the support of all the leading countries to look at this. It is not something that we can do unilaterally. It has to be done on a global basis. I think that for the first time ever there is a global consensus that we have to do more around corporate tax avoidance.
In that respect, I should like briefly to mention the personal and corporate tax avoidance in tax havens where up to now there has been a huge degree of secrecy. There is a growing momentum of considerable proportions to open up data about people and companies that have set up entities, which until now have been secret, in the principal tax havens of the world. It is worth while looking at what has happened in the past year. Having signed an agreement on the automatic exchange of information with the US in September, we have done the same with the Isle of Man. In March, we reached agreement with Jersey and Guernsey. In April, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK agreed to develop and pilot multilateral tax information exchanges. Also in April, we set out our priorities around tax transparencies for the May European Council. Most significantly of all, perhaps, within the past month the overseas territories have agreed to greater automatic information exchange with the UK. Here, we are talking about the Cayman Islands, the BVI and other places that have had a degree of secrecy which we believe is simply no longer acceptable.
The noble Lord, Lord Bhattacharyya, spoke with his unrivalled knowledge about the constraints on innovation and investment. I had a great deal of sympathy with much of what he said, particularly about supporting reshoring, which to a certain extent is happening anyway. However, as he suggested, I am sure that the Government should look at ways of doing more. I am particularly aware of an initiative that my noble friend Lord Alliance is heading up on the textile industry and which is bearing considerable fruit. His view is that the potential from reshoring textile manufacture, so that we can have the just-in-time manufacture of textiles in the UK, could be as much as 250,000 jobs in the north-west. This is potentially a huge thing.
I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Bhattacharyya, that we could be doing more. I was particularly interested in his suggestion of how we might use public procurement to help. We should look at that further, and I will discuss it with my colleague Vince Cable, because it seems an interesting idea. I say in passing that the suggestion that we should be emulating the Americans to increase car manufacturing here seems to ignore the fact that car manufacturing has increased here substantially, without government bailouts but with government support. That is because we have had fantastic investment by companies such as Tata, which have completely turned around iconic British brands by investing more than £100 million of their own money in innovation and investment. They are working very closely with the universities, possibly including the university of the noble Lord, Lord Bhattacharyya, and are placing their own research people in those universities. That has happened without direct government subsidy, on the American model, but because this is a good environment for that kind of activity.
We have a raft of initiatives on the table. There are the Catapult centres, whose work includes high-value manufacturing, initiatives on science and innovation and capital projects from the research partnerships fund. We have done a raft of things to help small businesses to generate capital and have access to it, from abolishing stamp duty on shares and expanding the small business research initiative to £100 million and having further funding committed via the new investment bank, which we are in the process of establishing.
For three-quarters of his speech, the noble Lord, Lord Bates, did a tremendous job in helping the movement of animal spirits in a positive direction. Then he slightly undermined that by saying that the figures on which we are placing a certain amount of hope are perhaps not worth the paper they are written on. I paraphrase slightly. However, I think we will have in the UK what has just happened in the US, where the basis of the GDP figures is being looked at. I believe this is the case, although it may not be on exactly the same basis as he wants. The sad thing is that if the consequence of that rebasing of GDP leads to GDP figures going down, everybody will say that this is the Government’s fault for being completely incompetent, while if it shows them going up, that will lead to everybody saying that they have been fiddled, so I do not place too much hope on that. A consistent series of figures is probably the best that can be done. Although it does not necessarily reach an absolutely precise representation of the truth, that is good enough.
Lord Bates
If the noble Lord will allow me, I just need to correct for the record that I did not say that the GDP figures were worthless. I never used that term. I simply queried the mix between the construction and service sectors—be it 5,000, 10,000 or 12,000—and whether that mix was under review in order to ensure that we are accurately reflecting the performance of the economy.
Lord Newby
I apologise to the noble Lord. As I was saying, I believe that the ONS is doing a pretty fundamental review of that at the moment.
The Government are under no illusions at all about the challenges ahead in respect of growth. Implementing our ambitious programme of reform and securing strong, sustainable growth will not be easy, but the Government will not deviate from their course. The prizes in the global economic race are great and we are determined to win more of them.
Regional Development
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby(11 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Newby
My Lords, as the noble Lord will be aware, we have had active regional policies to a greater or lesser extent in the United Kingdom since the 1960s. When I studied this at university, the figures were very much in my mind. The reason it is such a difficult issue to deal with is that, for example, in the north-east the proportion of people employed in the basic industries—mining, steel, shipbuilding and engineering—fell from something like 33% to well under 10% in a couple of decades. The challenge for government in trying to reduce regional disparities is how to put in place the kinds of long-term policies, such as infrastructure apprenticeships, that can begin to redress these wider economic forces. However, I do not think that government can reverse them, certainly not in the short term.
Lord Bates
My Lords, I welcome my noble friend’s recollection of the north-east of England and some of the history there. Did he have an opportunity to see the recent study in the Economist magazine about the north-south divide, which looked at the data between 1997 and 2010, pointing out that during that time in the north-east of England GVA grew by 41% and yet in the south-east of England it grew by 187%? Is that not part of the origin of the divide and is it not part of the correction to get good, well paid jobs in the private sector? If so, will he welcome the fact that employment in the north-east of England is at record levels, as are exports?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I very much welcome that, but I revert to my earlier answer. The north-east has in effect had to reinvent itself in terms of the balance of employment, which it has done reasonably well. However, it has been comparing itself, as my noble friend did, with the City, which has had an existing strength in financial services—one which grew almost exponentially during the period that he is talking about.
Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby(11 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Bates
That is a more reflective point; it is just not exactly what the amendment before us today actually refers to. It refers to the financial measures of “absolute low income”. Is that the one that is based on 1998-99 and uprated for inflation in a direct line?
My point is that there is an absolute crying need, of which we are all absolutely aware. There is child poverty out there and we need to strain every sinew to ensure that we tackle it. Also, we have no doubt that on the current measure there is no question that it is going to increase. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s figures forecast that as the recovery gets under way, private sector earnings will increase by 4.6% per annum. It does not take a great mathematical mind—which is fortunate for me—to figure out that with what we are dealing with today, as well as the likely increase in private sector incomes, we are going to see the gap rising and almost an inversion of what has happened over the past few years happening in the future. But there are more indicators that need to be examined to give us a holistic picture and to ensure that we target scarce resources where they are needed most.
Lord Newby
My Lords, this proposed new clause would require the Secretary of State to lay a report in each of the years in question, assessing the impact of that year’s uprating order on child poverty based on the different measures contained in the Child Poverty Act. I absolutely understand noble Lords’ concern to ensure that we are tracking progress and impacts on child poverty. However, I do not believe that this new clause is necessary to do that.
The Government already publish child poverty figures every year using the households below average income series, which is usually published in May or June and includes details on the areas listed in the amendment: namely, the number of children,
“living in relative low income … combined low income and material deprivation … absolute low income … persistent poverty”.
Moreover, later this year, we will see the first of what will become an annual report from the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, chaired by Alan Milburn. It will report on the Government’s progress towards reducing child poverty, in particular meeting the targets in the Act and implementing the most recent UK strategy.
The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, asked a number of questions about that commission. He asked where it had got to and what it was going to say. The answer is that the Government do not know what it is going to say because it is an independent commission. We await its report eagerly, but we are not attempting to pull it up by the roots to find out what it is going say as it is in the process of undertaking its work. I can reassure my noble friend that there is no drift in the work of the commission. It is a very substantive piece of work and it is therefore not surprising that it cannot do it very quickly. We expect that its report will be available in the late summer. It will report to Parliament and I am sure that we will give considerable scrutiny to it in your Lordships’ House when the time comes—we are already looking forward to it on these Benches, I can tell you.
I strongly believe that it is only through such comprehensive reporting, looking at poverty issues in the round, that we can have a meaningful debate about child poverty. As noble Lords have mentioned, we published in response to a Parliamentary Question in another place the expected impacts on child poverty of the uprating measures that we have announced. An additional 200,000 children will be in that category by the end of the period covered by the Bill as a result of the measures in it.
The noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, asked whether we would publish other impacts of the measure. We do not think that it is possible to derive estimates of all the measures in the Bill. For example, impacts cannot be modelled for the persistent low income poverty measure because impact assessments are based on cross-sectional data rather than longitudinal data. In addition, measures based on an estimate of material deprivation are technically complex to model because material deprivation relies on more factors than just income, so impacts have not been modelled for these measures. The noble Baroness asked also about the absolute poverty figure. If she will forgive me, I shall write to her on that separately.
As we have said previously, we believe that we need to be cautious about setting too much store by such individual assessments of impact. These are not predictions of how the child poverty figures will change in the future, as they do not take into account all the other variables which exist. For example, our estimates will change as forecasts of economic growth and average earnings change, and they do not take account of policies which cause child poverty figures to move in the other direction such as universal credit. Universal credit, which has not played much of a part in our debate today, is of course expected to lift up to 250,000 children out of poverty depending on the effect of the minimum income floor. I believe that we can have a meaningful debate about poverty, as we have started to do in the latter part of this debate, only when we accept that poverty goes wider than the measures contained within the Child Poverty Act.
The noble Baroness, Lady Lister, asked a number of questions about the work that we are doing on defining poverty and on the consultation. The consultation is finished. She is quite right that a number of people have been very critical of what the Government are proposing and we are now considering how we respond to those criticisms. It is not the case that the Government have made up their mind about the outcome and are going to ignore everything that has been said—that would be ridiculous. I can give the noble Baroness an assurance that we are analysing all the submissions, of which there have been a number, and we will produce our response to the consultation in the summer.
Ecclesiastical Fees (Amendment) Measure
Debate between Lord Bates and Lord Newby
Lord Newby
We might need to have a rebate in the event of rain. Some people get married in a particular kind of church at a particular time of year purely because they are paying for a better facility. In these harsh economic times, the church ought at least to explore that possibility.
Lord Bates
Having read the Measures, I was intrigued particularly by Parts 6 and 7 and wanted to question a little further. My prompt for asking this question was a walk on Saturday through my home town of Gateshead. I walked past about six different church buildings with my father. As we were walking, we were estimating the congregations in each of those six different church buildings, which happened to include two Anglican, a Baptist, a Salvation Army and a Methodist church. We estimated that the congregations in the six buildings were in the region of 150 or 200 for all of them.
As this is a consolidation measure, which deals in Part 6 with the use of places of worship, one wonders about underutilisation of church buildings and how that could be addressed. When he comes to respond to this short debate, perhaps the right reverend Prelate can comment on what consideration is given to better use of existing buildings, because there are a lot of opportunities there.
That links with Part 7, which has some excellent language which talks about local ecumenical partnerships working with different denominations in pursuit of, in that quaint phrase, the cure of souls, in the local area. That provision within the mission in Part 7, if replicated in the building regulations in Part 6, could lead to some interesting collaborations which would be for the benefit of communities. There are now many ways in which those buildings could be used. They could be used for schools, going back to their original purpose. Why could not the church building be used for them? They could be used for housing.