UK Strategy Towards the Arctic (International Relations and Defence Committee Report) Debate
Full Debate: Read Full DebateLord Anderson of Swansea
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(1 day, 17 hours ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I was privileged to be a member of the committee under the able chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Ashton of Hyde. The debate on this report has provided a forum for exposing a great deal of expertise already in the House. The report itself illustrates the dynamic nature of changes in the Arctic and the importance to our interests, including security, environment and energy supply. It asks key questions about our geopolitical priorities. It is called Our Friends in the North but obviously touches on those who are not our friends, including Russia and China in particular. I hope the report will be the basis for continued serious debate about the Arctic and our role in it—particularly, of course, a key role for our friends in Norway.
I begin with the usual complaint about the delays in bringing this report to the House for debate. The inquiry was launched in March 2023, the report was published in November that year and the Government response was a year ago, in January 2024. Surely, procedurally, we can do better as a House. It is fair to say that there have been no dramatic changes in the context since the report was published, but there has been an intensification of trends, including, for example, the effect of sanctions on Russian activities. I think particularly of the abandonment—or at least mothballing—by Russia of that LNG facility in Murmansk, and the effect on the supply of spare parts for ships to Novatek and the Russian commercial fleet.
The old assumptions about the Arctic being an area of low tension and high co-operation have been undermined, perhaps most dramatically in the role of the Arctic Council. It is right that the ministerial meetings following the Ukraine invasion have been stilled, but I fear that Russia will increasingly try to use the wedge of expert co-operation to normalise relations with the Arctic Council, and we must be very wary of that. How do the Government see the future of the Arctic Council today?
Obviously, climate change is fundamental to changes in the area, including the development of the Northern Sea Route. For example, there will be a reduction of almost two weeks in the journey from Tokyo to Hamburg, and potential effects on the Suez Canal. There will be many advantages for Russia from the opening of the Northern Sea Route—pilotage and so on. Tensions between Russia and the West are unlikely to ease.
The committee stressed the relevance of China, which is a provider of money for development. For example, we know that President Xi visited Moscow in March last year and promoted co-operation. In April, in Murmansk, China and Russia agreed on what is euphemistically called “maritime law enforcement”—whatever that may mean. We can surely confidently say that, if the report were written today, there would be much greater emphasis on threats to critical national infrastructure and the grey zone, including GPS jamming, military exercises, cyberattacks and information warfare.
Most salient now is maritime sabotage. For example, we know that in November a Chinese vessel was stopped because of alleged damage to Swedish interests, and there was a very tepid response at the time. By contrast, when a Russian vessel was stopped on Christmas Day by Finland and spy matériel was found on it, there was a far more robust response by Finland—the vessel was impounded. Let us hope that is a precedent. I hope the Government will applaud the robust response of Finland and, if there is appropriate evidence, use that and say it should be a precedent. Although the time has been short, it would be interesting to know what stage the Finnish investigation is at.
There are strong geopolitical implications of the Arctic changes. Of course, every case cannot be a priority, but surely recent events have exposed our vulnerability—ballistic missile defence, for example—and the critical importance of the Arctic to the UK and what the report calls “Our friends in the North”. Perhaps we should reconsider whether the tilt to the Indo-Pacific is still as justified. As the noble Lord, Lord Ashton, mentioned, our good colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, was a member of the committee and concurred with its recommendations. I assume that his membership will colour some of the recommendations that he will make in his review.