(11 years, 3 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I wanted to speak in this debate because I had many concerns about military intervention in Syria and the pace at which these events were being considered. I am glad that sanity has resumed and the timetable slowed. I do not have the depth of experience of many who have spoken or indeed who are yet to speak, but I have little understanding of the region; Iraq and Syria in particular. I have visited Syria on a number of occasions and held talks with President Assad on several. I also spent some time in Iraq during the second Iraq war. I was dispatched their seven times during the conflict and spent over three months in that war zone. Those experiences have coloured my judgment and I hope that your Lordships will view what I say through that lens. If I have learnt anything—apart from the horrors of war—it is that people can do unspeakable things to people; it is the desperation that conflict brings to the ordinary people; it is that loss of all hope.
I fully understand and accept that the use of chemical weapons is a line crossed and for that there must be consequences. But those consequences must be well thought through and proportionate, and they must stand the judgment of history. We should never let those who use chemical weapons feel that they can go without international condemnation or military sanctions. However, we must take military action only if it complies with international law and is evidence-based. That means sometimes having patience in the face of what seems to be an open and shut case. It means waiting for weapons inspectors fully to report. It also means giving this House and the other place time to digest the legal and intelligence information before rushing to a vote. It also means having some idea of the answer to the question: what happens next?
If we are to be able to make sense of the lessons of the war in Iraq, we must understand that mission creep is the enemy of the international community and the friend of chaos and fundamentalism. The fact that bombs can be launched at a safe distance and that military installations can be incinerated with minimal collateral damage lulls Governments into a false sense of security that action can be taken with minimal effect on us. But that is never where it ends. The journey goes in only one direction.
Let me be clear: I do not support military intervention over and above action taken as a deterrent against further use of chemical weapons. I support such action only provided it is proven with compelling evidence and it is part of an international alliance. I also recognise that there will be repercussions from those events.
However, the conflict is more than just the removal of a dictator. It has deeper religious roots—Sunni versus Shia—which are being played out all over the Middle East and more widely internationally. So we must also ask: what happens when and if the Assad Government are removed? What is left behind? From my experience, it is soldiers with guns but no paymaster. It is ammunition dumps unguarded. It is porous borders, foreign mercenaries and religious fanatics with kangaroo courts. It is no one in control.
In addition to the limited military action favoured by the Government, we should be concerned about the escalation of the mission, about the men and women of our Armed Forces and about who or what takes over. We should be concerned that, like in Iraq, we do not destroy the system needed post-conflict to help rebuild a nation.
I know that history marches to its own tune but we can learn from past mistakes. I fully understand that we need to stand by our red lines but we should not move them. Our job in Parliament is to guard those lines against all those who seek to draw us further into conflict where they cannot define success. I know that all roads probably lead to bloodshed and misery. Whatever we do, there is no easy resolution to what is happening in Syria and more widely in the Middle East. There is no military solution, and the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister should heed the lessons of the Iraq war. This is one of those decisions where we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.
Finally, I say to the noble Lord the Leader of the House that I have listened to the list of things that this action is not intended to do—the same list that the Prime Minister gave in the other place. But that has not been the mood music being played by this Government over recent months. It is that mood music that frightens us all and it should be turned down.