Africa: Post-conflict Stabilisation

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Thursday 8th July 2010 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to be a tail-ender in this debate, and I warmly thank the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, for introducing it. His use of the phrase “post-conflict stabilisation” today must come from two sources: a strong desire to see peace in Africa’s troubled regions and, in contrast, an acceptance of the reality of conflict which is ongoing and which he himself has seen at close hand. Many noble Lords in these debates have wrestled with this paradox in Africa.

My noble friend Lady Cox has again shared her amazing experiences from Sudan in one of the finest speeches I have heard from her. In view of the historic links between Scotland and Africa, it is also a pleasure to welcome the noble Lord, Lord McDonnell, to this debate and to know that the spirit of David Livingstone is among us.

I intend to speak about Sudan which should be a model of post-conflict stabilisation, having benefited from the so-called CPA—the comprehensive peace agreement—on which the entire international community has worked hard for five years and more, including our own Government. This enormous country seems permanently on the brink of a political crisis which could still topple this vital agreement. Since April, its leaders have at last demonstrated a new determination to make it work, at least up to the referendum in January. On the face of it, the conditions for the referendum in Southern Sudan, as laid out in the CPA, are not yet in place. Fighting continues in Darfur. In Abyei even this week there were casualties as well as in other parts of the south. The elections in April did not bring harmonious results and there are urgent concerns about registration and citizenship. Who will belong to the north and the south in the future? Wealth-sharing arrangements and disputed boundaries are all matters that still need to be worked out

The points made by the noble Lord, Lord Judd, about grass roots development and good governance are critical, as is the involvement of NGOs. The noble Lord, Lord McConnell, also mentioned building capacity. The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Gloucester mentioned the key role of the churches in Southern Sudan. I pay tribute to the work of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Salisbury, through his diocesan link. My noble friend Lady Cox also mentioned the poverty of these marginal areas and our failure to bring international aid to people away from the centre such as Juba.

There are always voices of doom, especially from the south of Sudan. The SPLM Secretary-General for the northern sector, Yasir Sa’id Arman, expressed fears last weekend that the CPA was not being taken seriously enough. He said that it was being treated by the north as “any old peace agreement” with dissident southerners, instead of one which demonstrated national reconciliation. He has a fair point. During demonstrations of southerners in Kampala this week the SPLM youth leader Eng Paul Akol blamed the north for leaving the south in poverty. He accused Khartoum of arming militia groups in the south and claimed that a separate south would more easily overcome the threat from the LRA. That is quite a claim.

Meanwhile, the maverick Dr Hasan al-Turabi said that the Government were trying to hold the tension of secession and were already holding a post-mortem without discussing the problem itself. I believe that he is right. No one can confront the issue of secession itself simply because so many problems remain unresolved. The countdown to January continues. The referendum commission has been established and meetings are coming up once again to discuss the vital issues of oil-rich borders such as Abyei, wealth-sharing and citizenship. I ask the Minister to imagine the south voting for secession. What will be the material benefits of independence? Sudan’s national external debt, despite its oil wealth, stood at about US$35 billion in 2009—last year’s figures. According to the IMF, such an economy cannot be sustainable in the absence of debt relief. Southern Sudan on other hand will be among the very poorest countries. It will have a much higher poverty rating in the World Bank charts, which will be reflected in its first poverty reduction strategic plan. Will the south be able to take advantage of the new IMF arrangements, such as the special facility for the least developed countries? Will it qualify for the highly indebted poor countries initiative in its own right? Perhaps it will apply to join the Commonwealth. Once free of Khartoum, it will not be restrained by US and EU sanctions arising from the ICC verdict and will become eligible for international aid from every source.

It would surely not be right to classify the south as an oil state. Who will own the oil in Upper Nile and the other states which will remain in dispute next year as long as its oil revenues are derived from the pipeline to the north and it has no form of export of its own? While a proportion may be accounted for actuarially, it cannot really be treated as southern revenues. Given such ambiguity, does the Minister think that possession of oil reserves will count in favour or against the south?

In conclusion, I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, on Uganda and the LRA, and I heard the tragic tales from my noble friends Lord Alton and Lady Cox. I would make only one point about the LRA. The Ugandan army has been seen as a source of great stability and has benefited Southern Sudan’s security. However, I cannot see it making progress without the fullest technical support. What are our Government doing, perhaps alongside the United Nations force, to maintain that technical support and to ensure that Kampala revives its stalled economic programme for the Acholi people who are, after all, the homeland of the LRA northern Uganda? My noble friend Lady Cox has painted another painful image for us of the condition of many children in Uganda. Having visited Uganda on more than one occasion, I can say that while there is universal education for some, many are not included in the north of Uganda. I commend my noble friend’s remarks and hope that the Minister has a reply.