The Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence

Debate between Earl of Mar and Kellie and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 26th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, was very lucky that he still had his slippers on when climbing the Ben, because for me this is an even grimmer debate. I read this report with interest and found it helpful. The committee and the United Kingdom Government presume a victory for the “no” campaign. The committee has considered its angle on possible economic implications which, while significant, are of course not the central point of the referendum. I will talk more about constitution than economics.

The committee did not consider the central issue, that of Scottish democracy and self-government. In a sentence: with political independence the people of Scotland always get the Government of their choice. The “no” campaign has not brought forward enough about Scotland’s possible future within the United Kingdom. The “no” parties have probably not finalised their positions. The presumption is of greater powers for Scotland, though I wonder whether there is much more that could be devolved if the four pillars of reservation are to be retained: defence, foreign affairs, macroeconomics and welfare. I hope that my Liberal Democrat noble friends will develop and promote their federal proposal, similar in many ways to that successfully established in Germany after 1945. This federal solution would at least secure a limited sovereign status for the powers of the Scottish Parliament and also define and limit the powers of the United Kingdom Parliament as the federal Parliament.

King James VI was, I believe, keen to become the emperor of Britain in 1603, arguing that he presided over three sovereign states thereby creating an empire. He failed to win his argument. Unfortunately, he also failed to secure sufficient entrenchment for his Scottish kingdom. That made possible the disappointing development of the incorporating union agreed in 1706, led and driven by the Earl of Godolphin.

Heading back to the report, the committee produced a list of the risks of leaving. I ask that the risks of staying be considered. Some of these are as follows. First, as the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, mentioned, there is involvement in wars which more meet England’s need to be a major power. Secondly, there is the risk of being removed from the European Union because people in south-east England think they will be better off outwith it. Thirdly, the United Kingdom Government might continue to act without consent from Scotland, as happened over the development of the Clyde naval base. Fourthly, consider this: if the people of Scotland wished to develop into a Scandinavian-style social democracy, they would not be allowed to do so. I am sure there are many more risks.

I turn to the use of campaign metaphors. The “no” campaign would have us use the divorce analogy while “yes” campaigners use the metaphor of the family growing up and going their own ways. Noble Lords will generally be familiar with the risks of entering into a marriage and of selecting a career. Neither can political independence be risk free. There seems to be a presumption in the report that the SNP will form the Scottish Government in 2016. I suspect that Labour may well form the Scottish Government, somewhat perversely, after a “yes” vote. In that case, today’s Scottish Government can hardly make hard and fast predictions about what will be negotiated.

It concerns me that the committee seemed to approve of the idea that after a “yes” vote the remainder of the United Kingdom Government should act in a generally hostile fashion towards Scotland, despite the continuation of the regnal union. I know there is the precedent of the trade war with Ireland, which has at least been worked through. That is curious behaviour for the mother of Parliaments. It smacks of “Leave me and I’ll make your life miserable”—surely a relationship with a poor foundation.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am most grateful to the noble Earl for giving way. Where in the report is there any suggestion that there would be hostility towards an independent Scotland? The report goes out of its way to avoid any language of that kind. Surely the noble Earl is not suggesting that it is hostile to say that if Scotland became independent it could not expect the Bank of England to look after its interests. That is a matter of fact, not of hostility or gentility.

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

My noble friend is probably right but I read the report and that is what I felt.

Finally, Scotland needs to emerge from its 300-year constitutional sleep. Clearly, the limited powers granted in 1998 were the early stages of that awakening. Our neighbour and comparator country, Norway, emerged in 1905 from a 400-year constitutional sleep. After becoming one of the poorest countries in western Europe, look at it now. The key is that it achieved democracy before it obtained wealth. It decided in 1990 to set up a sovereign wealth fund. The United Kingdom decided not to do so, thereby depriving Scotland of any choice in the matter. I am confident that there will be more constitutional developments in favour of Scottish autonomy irrespective of the actual referendum result. After all, the status quo is not on offer as the Scotland Act 2012 will be implemented between now and 2016. There must be more such developments because a sustainable, permanent settlement is needed. Economics, though significant, must follow the new settlement.

Scotland Bill

Debate between Earl of Mar and Kellie and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 21st March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Reid of Cardowan]

I would be able to understand that if I knew what devo-max is. I am presupposing that if there is a subsequent discussion on the decision to stay in the United Kingdom, some of it will be on what the vote is actually about. I hate to add pigs and pokes to porridge—enough euphemisms have been used—but one of the problems with devo-max is that, since it affects the relationship between the peoples of the United Kingdom, it would have to go to the peoples of the United Kingdom or their elected representatives. Also, at this stage no one knows what devo-max, devo-plus or any of these topics other than staying in the UK or leaving the UK actually constitutes. How on earth that is put to a referendum is beyond me, and therefore it reinforces the fact that there should be a clear, fair and legal decision on one issue, after which there may or may not be discussions between the representatives of the various peoples about changing that relationship. At that stage, presumably, devo-max may represent what the islands the noble Earl referred to already have or it might refer to something entirely different. Part of the problem is that at the moment we have no idea of what it refers to.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, the difference is that Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man do not send Members of Parliament to the House of Commons.

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

I suppose I should continue to look for advice: did they? I also note that Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man have almost complete autonomy, including on foreign policy and the Treasury. The only thing they do not provide overall is their own defence.

Scotland Bill

Debate between Earl of Mar and Kellie and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Tuesday 28th February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

It is nice to have something on which to disagree with the noble Lord. In 1603, we had the union of the Crowns. In 1707, we had the union of the Parliaments. The kingdom of Scotland and the kingdom of England ceased to exist in 1707 because the United Kingdom was created. Therefore, it is illiterate as well as misleading to suggest that there would still be a United Kingdom. If Scotland were to leave the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom would cease to exist. Whether or not the monarch went on to become the head of Scotland as head of state, the relationship would be similar to that enjoyed by Canada and Australia, but it would certainly not mean that the United Kingdom continues. For many people this may seem a kind of historical fact, but it is very important that we understand this, particularly when we have people in high office who seem determined to mislead people. I repeat that if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, there will be no United Kingdom. I do not know what a kingdom represented by England, Ireland and Wales would be called.

To return to the subject of the amendment, the use of the terminology “Scottish Crown Estate Commissioner” is wholly wrong, and I hope that my noble friend will feel able to accept the amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Browne, which seems entirely sensible and very necessary.

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

My Lords, I am not certain that I fully agree with my noble friend.

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

Indeed. Let us try to identify what we are talking about. The Scottish Crown Estate is a pre-union institution. It was put together over many hundreds of years, developed particularly by King James IV, and one of the things that Scotland brought to the union. Therefore the reference to a Scottish Crown Estate commissioner sounds wholly correct. As regards the BBC—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I hate to mention this, but since then we have had the union of the Crowns and the union of the Parliaments. When the Scottish Crown Estate came into that union, it became part of the United Kingdom with a single monarch, and it is the Crown Estate in Scotland. I know that the noble Earl has very considerable historical roots, but we have to use the terminology that is appropriate for our time. Does he not agree?

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

No, I do not. No matter what the noble Lord says, the Scottish Crown Estate existed. I was going to make a point about the BBC. That is undoubtedly a British, 20th century creation, and therefore the idea of a BBC Trust member for Scotland is quite appropriate, but I do not think it is right to enter into the pretence that the Crown Estate is a British institution in Scotland.

Scotland Bill

Debate between Earl of Mar and Kellie and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Thursday 2nd February 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord. I think that he and I need to be careful because we will soon be appearing in the nat blogs as an example of an unholy alliance. I have suggested to my noble friend that we should form a roadshow and go around Scotland extolling the virtues of the union. The only other explanation I could think of for why the Scottish Government are now pressing for some control over Antarctica is that perhaps they think it might be a good idea to pass regulations keeping me there on ice for the winter in order to avoid open debate. I am most grateful to the noble Lord, and I thank him for the cheque he sent towards the fund for Marie Curie Cancer Care.

I support this clause because it is entirely sensible. I suspect that it was an oversight because there is a very serious job to be done. While I was in Antarctica I met some scientists who were drilling holes in order to measure movement in the ice-cap, but one of the problems they faced was that they kept on hitting gas and oil. There are considerable mineral resources in Antarctica and I hope that they will stay there for a long time so that Antarctica is preserved. I hope that the British Government will take very seriously their responsibilities in this regard.

My noble friend the Duke of Montrose also mentioned the Scott expedition and the centenary of Scott’s arrival at the South Pole—only to discover that Amundsen had beaten him there. We all celebrate the courage that Scott and his party showed in their disastrous attempt to get back to safety from the South Pole.

So I welcome the clause. Of all the clauses in the Bill, it is the one that I can endorse with most enthusiasm. I am most grateful to my noble friend for ensuring that the interests of Antarctica are in good hands.

[The Earl of Mar and Kellie]

My Lords, does the clause in any way inhibit Scottish universities’ polar research? My noble friend has been to the Antarctic. In 1902, William Speirs Bruce led the Scottish national Antarctic expedition in the steam yacht, “Scotia”, its research ship. The “Discovery” was built in Dundee. Speirs Bruce also explored the Arctic, and one can still find the remains of Brucehaven in Spitsbergen. Perhaps I may ask a question that is vaguely similar to one asked by the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth. Are we trying to prevent Scots universities exploring or researching in Antarctica but not in the Arctic?