Trade, Exports, Innovation and Productivity

Debate between David Rutley and Iain Wright

Wednesday 13th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[Mr Wright]

That is incredibly important. Firms make investment decisions not just because of the UK domestic market, but because they see the UK as a springboard into the largest consumer marketplace—500 million consumers—on earth. Japanese firms such as Nissan and Hitachi are not just here for the domestic market; they are here because we are a springboard into the whole European market. We risk that at our peril.

Trade performance is a good barometer of economic health at both the macro and micro levels. At a macro level, a buoyant trade performance contributes to economic growth and helps to provide a surplus on the country’s current account. As the hon. Member for Dundee East (Stewart Hosie) mentioned, the motion cites a

“trade deficit in goods of £123 billion in 2014”.

However, in that year, the current account deficit widened to 5.1% of national income, which was its largest in post-war history. For much of the past 30 or 40 years, the trade deficit has been offset by investment income from overseas. However, and most ominously, net primary income derived from assets abroad has fallen from 3.3% of GDP to 0.1% in 2014. The Minister should outline the Government’s view about that because they have been quiet about this crucial economic issue.

At a micro level, exporting is positive, especially for firms, and it is good for the wider economy and society, too. Evidence suggests that an exporting business tends to be successful, sustainable and socially aware. Such a company tends to employ more workers and to offer better wages than an equivalent non-exporting company. Companies that export have been shown to be more productive and to invest more in research and development. There is a strong link between exporting and innovation. More often than not, a business with a desire to export overseas has the discipline, ambition and entrepreneurial flourish to develop new products and services that will better serve new export markets. Such companies will be sensitive and responsive to customer wishes, which is always the hallmark of a successful business. There can be a virtuous circle for exporting businesses whereby they become exposed to new demands, fresh ideas and increased competition, which in turn makes them more productive and outward looking, and better disposed towards thinking about new products and improved profitability.

On average, according to the British Chambers of Commerce, businesses that export grow 20% more than those that do not. We need to encourage such activity much more because far too few excellent British firms providing great goods and services that could be offered throughout the world export. Only one in five British firms do so, whereas the average figure for the EU is one in four.

The motion refers to the UK’s “poor export performance”, but with the greatest respect to the Scottish National party, I would go further. I think that our trade performance over the past 30 years or so has been dire and woeful. It has declined markedly over that period with no genuine prospect of improvement. The UK accounted for one in 10 of the world’s exports in 1950, but now the figure is less than 3%. Of course, with the development of emerging economies, it was inevitable that there would be a relative decline in the market share of UK goods and services, but not at the rate that we have unfortunately experienced. Given the forecast that world trade will expand by $250 trillion by 2050, there should be a co-ordinated effort—in the House, across the country and in government—to ensure that we capture as much as possible of the growth in the world economy for British firms.

[David Rutley]

The hon. Gentleman is making important points in his impassioned speech. He is right that there is a challenge for more business to step up to the plate and move into exporting, but does he agree that the situation shows that we need a real cultural change involving not only the Government, but businesses examining what they have done in previous years and moving further forward?

[Mr Wright]

The hon. Gentleman has a fantastic track record of talking about trade and investment, and how we ensure that we boost our sales of exports throughout the world. I will deal with his important point about what we can do in a moment.

In November 2015, the UK’s trade gap was £3.2 billion, while the trade deficit in goods was £10.6 billion. In 2014, UK goods exports fell by 4.1%, which represented the lowest growth rate since the recession in 2009. We were the only G7 economy to experience a negative growth in exports, although it is not all doom and gloom because the north-east still has the only consistent trade surplus in goods. However, as the hon. Member for Dundee East said, there is precious little evidence of a “march of the makers” with modern manufacturing at the heart of a rebalanced economy and providing export-led growth. That is reinforced by yesterday’s Office for National Statistics publication showing that the UK manufacturing sector is now back in recession. I fear that we are sleepwalking back to the long-standing British model, which has been prevalent over the past 40 years or so, of debt-fuelled customer consumption based on an assumption of ever-rising house prices. That did not work in the past—it never has—and it cannot be a model for sustainable and competitive economic growth.

As we have heard several times during the debate, the Government have set a target of £1 trillion of exports by 2020. I genuinely want them to achieve that because it would be good for firms and the country, and would bring about economic growth and broadening prosperity for everyone. However, it is now more or less a given that the Government will fall spectacularly short of their target. Few expect it to be achieved, including the Secretary of State when he gave evidence to the Select Committee. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s “Economic and fiscal outlook” that was published at the same time as the autumn statement forecast the cash value of exports in 2020 to be £647 billion, which is 23% lower than its March 2012 forecast and 35% lower than the Government’s ambition. It is not acceptable for the House, the Government or the country simply to shrug our shoulders and say, “Do you know what? It was a tough target and it’s unachievable, but at least we had a go.” We must be more ambitious than that, but the evidence suggests that the Government have not even had a go. A strong export performance matters, which was why the BIS Committee launched an inquiry into exports and the role of UK Trade & Investment.

I think that I speak for all members of the Committee, several of whom are in the Chamber, when I say that we all want the £1 trillion target to be achieved, but given the enormous shortfall that is forecast, we need a vigorous focus on changing course and embarking on policies that will bring about an improved performance, yet I have not seen the Government demonstrating that there will be such a step change. Will the Minister outline what is being done differently to ensure that we get as close to the £1 trillion target as possible? What active steps are the Government taking to ensure that 100,000 more companies are exporting by 2020?

To respond to the intervention made by the hon. Member for Macclesfield (David Rutley), while the Government do not control this, they can put in place a framework and facilitate the environment. We need to think about what firms are doing. They might have a good domestic market in which they feel comfortable, but how do we ensure that they can put their toe in the water of exports? Businesses will be concerned about whether they know the regulations and laws of a particular country and if they will get paid, so they might think that exporting is too much hassle and that they will stick to the domestic market. However, we need to encourage them to export, and that brings me on to the role of UKTI.