Bank of England and Financial Services Bill [HL]

Debate between Baroness Worthington and Baroness Kramer

Monday 9th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Worthington (Lab)]

My Lords, today we are discussing a Bill that should have the long-term sustainability of the financial system at its heart. To that end, we are discussing provisions that would open up the Bank to further scrutiny, maintain existing scrutiny and guard against the possible repetition of groupthink. Amendment 8 would change the list of risks, as set out in the Bank of England Act 1988, that the Financial Policy Committee must consider in order to include long-term systemic risks to our financial stability.

These risks may arise from fundamental structural changes that have important implications for our financial system and therefore our long-term sustainable economic growth. There are some risks to longer-term financial stability that do not emerge within the typical time horizons of financial markets or the monitoring of the Bank. The time horizon of the Financial Policy Committee’s stability activities is not set in statute but according to the governor; it typically extends a little further than that of the Monetary Policy Committee, which is one to three years, but certainly no further than the outer boundaries of the credit cycle—around five to seven years. The danger is that, by the time fundamental structural changes that have been developing in the background are acknowledged by markets and regulators as an important issue for financial stability, it may be already too late. Unsustainable investments may have become embedded in institutions’ balance sheets, with capital locked into enterprises and business models that may have been rendered uneconomic as a result of long-term changes.

I will touch on three areas where risks are apparent over longer-term time horizons. The rise of new technology, which has already radically and permanently reshaped both the real economy and the financial industry, and future innovations such as machine learning, artificial intelligence and the rise of digital currencies, will have important implications for the wider economy and the robustness of our financial sector. Demographic change around the world is also reshaping economies, and with them their financial services industries. The increasingly ageing populations in developed economies will have implications for the pensions and the insurance industries. An IMF report found that if people live just three years longer than expected, in line with past underestimations, such an increase in longevity would add 9% to pension liabilities for private pension plans in the United States. These demographic changes have important implications and we must not be caught in just short-term thinking.

Lastly, we face the profound challenge of long-term changes in our natural environment, including the overarching risk of global climate change. This challenge has two elements: the implications of physical changes in the environment for the real economy, and the responses to that change from governments and other key actors as impacts become more apparent and policies are introduced. The financial services industry, like every other industry, will have to respond and adapt to climate change. The risk it presents, though relatively long term, should be integrated into prudential regulation now.

In recognition of these risks, Defra invited the Bank of England in 2013 to take part in an adaptation reporting cycle under the Climate Change Act. The Bank took part on a voluntary basis, and that is welcome. However, it was the PRA that undertook to respond to Defra’s request. The Financial Policy Committee’s response to the invitation was recorded in its minutes of the meeting of March this year:

“The committee’s central expectation was that the risks to financial stability were likely to be beyond the FPC’s typical policy horizon”.

That is precisely the problem that governor Mark Carney highlighted when he referred to the “tragedy of the horizon”. It is the problem I wish to raise by moving this amendment.

Of course, it is to be welcomed that the Bank is looking into the implications for the insurance industry, but as I said, this goes far beyond just insurance. Researchers from Oxford and Cambridge universities estimate that between 5% and 20% of the average diversified equity investment portfolio is at risk of re-evaluation as a result of climate change. The UK, although home to only 0.2% of the world’s coal, oil and gas reserves according to Carbon Tracker in 2013, listed in London alone reserves equivalent to 18.7% of the remaining global carbon budget. The over-representation of fossil fuels in our markets is a subject that I hope we can return to on Wednesday, as I have tabled another amendment on this theme.

To sustain economic development regulators must take into account long-term trends and changes that markets may fail to see. That means allowing time horizons to be determined not by the credit cycle, market behaviour or the Bank’s price stability objectives, but by the unknown future risks our financial stability regulators must be equipped to guard against. As global leaders will meet less than a month from now in Paris to discuss the long-term sustainability of the planet and climate change, it is right that, across all areas of policy, we ask what the implications are of this historic meeting. Making our financial sector more attuned to the risks of climate change and other long-term threats is something the UK can and should show global leadership on. Our current governor is already making the case. The Government can and should do more. I look forward to hearing the Minister’s response. I beg to move.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, I added my name to this amendment because this is a crucial discussion and an important opportunity to draw the Government’s attention to these issues. This Government, like many others and almost every speaker on financial issues in this House, have expressed their frustration with the short-termism that dominates the British financial services industry: a search for short-term profits rather than understanding the longer term perspective. Indeed, the Chancellor has often voiced frustration at the fact that UK pension funds are very unlikely to invest in the kind of long-term infrastructure projects he sees as essential for our country. Canadian pension funds will gladly invest, but not UK ones. We suffer from this ongoing blight. Of course, the ultimate frustration is that many of those who put their money into such pension funds would be absolutely delighted to see it invested in infrastructure, renewable energy and sustainable projects, because they are often looking for a 30 to 40-year horizon regarding the return on the money they invest. However, that is not the way the system works.

When the Bank of England was given responsibility for financial stability, there was an assumption that part of the thinking would then extend into that long-term arena, and that the Bank would be freed from the narrow and short-term issues of stability. In fact, I think the Chancellor talked about avoiding the stability of the graveyard and looking at the much longer term horizon. So far, the Bank has not used its wide range of powers or its influence to enter into that territory. Whether it is sustainability as defined by projects such as renewable energy, rail infrastructure or broadband, a wide range of projects need a response from the UK’s financial services. That surely requires the Bank to take some role, and to take cognisance of this issue. I hope that debates such as this will persuade the Treasury and Government to engage much more extensively in those conversations with the Bank in its various and many parts, and to consider whether the relevant committees should at least have regard to those priorities, and potentially see them as obligations and duties, given the important role that long-term investment plays in the future of the UK.