My Lords, on the noble Lord’s first question, no, I do not expect his party to win. In fact, I am trying to point out that he and his party ought to be very careful that we do not undermine this country’s great strength in attracting inward investment. Making complacent statements that have no substance puts investors off.
Does my noble friend think that I am being too optimistic in believing that my Centrica shares will start going up again as we approach the next election and the chances of the Conservatives winning it will increase?
My Lords, as long as we have a Conservative Government in place, I am sure that we will all benefit.
My Lords, these reports appeared widely in the media over the weekend. I accept from the noble Lord that they are worrying, particularly in times of hardship for most consumers. Perhaps we should look—I was going to say at how we make it easier for consumers not to be ripped off at the petrol pump, but I shall not—at how we can encourage retailers to pass down a drop in price if it comes through the crude oil route. However, the Office of Fair Trading is looking at retail pricing and at how reductions in price are passed down. We hope to be able to respond once we have viewed the report.
My Lords, about 12 months ago, Shell produced a forecast for oil prices which was between $70 and $90 a barrel. That has not proved right and prices now are between $115 and $120. If Shell cannot get its forecast right, are the Government likely to?
My Lords, I thank my noble friend for that very helpful question. Of course, we do not always dictate the global scenarios that often change in front of us. While we try to make our predictions as accurate as we possibly can, scenarios will be played out on the international scene over which we have no control. Therefore, our scenarios are based on price structures that take into account the low, the central and the high. The price forecasts that we have come to were made on that basis.