The Ukraine Effect (European Affairs Committee Report)

Baroness Suttie Excerpts

Thursday 21st November 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Suttie (LD)]

My Lords, I too would like to congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, on his excellent introduction to this important and highly relevant report. I would also like to congratulate the Secretariat and members of the European Affairs Committee. It was a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat. I served on the EU sub-committee under his chairmanship when the report he referred to was produced several years ago.

The report we are debating today is highly relevant and topical, and we do so against a backdrop of increased tension and an increasingly bleak situation in Ukraine. Like the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone, I welcome the Foreign Secretary’s Statement this week on Ukraine. Ukraine needs to know that the UK remains a firm and steadfast ally and friend at this time. After more than a thousand days of this truly awful war—and, I should add, it is 4,000 days since the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014—we are now moving into probably the most dangerous time we have seen since the first month of the war, February 2022. 

Each winter since Putin launched his illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people have faced new and almost unimaginable challenges. But this winter threatens to be the most severe, with the cynical targeting of power stations leaving so many Ukrainians once again with no power or heating in the freezing winter in the months ahead.

I know that several Ukrainian friends—especially those with young children—are facing the deeply difficult dilemma of whether to stay or leave Ukraine this winter. The psychological impact on young children of constant air raid sirens, drone attacks and periods of no power or heating, as well as the impact on their education, cannot be underestimated. Most Ukrainians feel that it is their patriotic duty to stay, but it is incredibly and increasingly hard for them.

The European Affairs Committee report rightly welcomes that—at least until now—the EU, UK and US have been aligned on sanctions. But the report raises concerns that it has been possible for Russia to circumvent these sanctions, particularly, as was said by the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, and others, in the energy sector and through the use of shadow tankers. In previous debates on Ukraine, I raised concerns that the sanctions regime has not done enough to damage the Putin war economy. As a Russian acquaintance said to me earlier this year, what the war in Ukraine has shown him is that “Russia does not need Europe”. He said this with some regret but said that in terms of his own business, he had just had to switch to looking towards China.

Given the highly probable shift of US policy on sanctions from January, can the Minister say whether the Government plan to review the current sanctions regime with our EU partners to ensure that they have a more direct impact on the levers of power and the Kremlin’s war economy? Like the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, I ask the Minister what action the Government are taking now to prevent sanction busting via the British Overseas Territories, not least given the Foreign Secretary’s vocal criticism of the previous Government’s inaction on this matter.

Ahead of this debate, I contacted several Ukrainian friends to ask for their views, particularly on the reconstruction of Ukraine—I refer noble Lords to my register of interests and previous work in the Parliament in Kyiv as well as with the John Smith Trust. The report stressed the importance of giving additional assistance now. This is a view shared by many of my contacts in Ukraine, both in terms of economic assistance and capacity building. In particular, they feel that the UK would be extremely well placed to assist with building capacity in public administration and in helping to further reform the legal system in Ukraine to ensure the rule of law. Both would help with anti-corruption measures and in helping Ukraine in its desire to “build back better”. Targeting assistance to a younger generation of Ukrainians could make a big difference, and I would be grateful for a response on this from the Minister in her concluding remarks.

I recently met a delegation from Lviv. They stressed the importance of reopening Lviv airport and of helping now to reconstruct power stations, as well as constructing new, more environmentally friendly ones. Can the Minister give an update on the Government’s approach to assisting with the Ukrainian energy sector this winter and reopening Lviv airport in particular?

None of us has a crystal ball to know exactly what the highly unpredictable President Trump will do in January next year, but all the indications suggest a move away from continued military support for Ukraine. If this happens, the UK is going to have to work ever closer with our European partners in terms of our national security and defence. I hope this country can take a leadership role in this regard, perhaps through convening a summit on Ukraine with our EU and NATO partners.

Of course we must continue to make the case for the importance of continued military support for Ukraine with our American partners too, but it would be unwise, indeed naive, not to prepare for the worst. As the report rightly says,

“any change in the EU’s approach to foreign and security policy will be bound to have implications for UK national security”.

President Putin revels in creating global chaos. The strategists in the Kremlin will be hoping for the double whammy of withdrawal of US support combined with a fracturing of the until now united EU approach towards Kyiv and the war in Ukraine. As one Ukrainian friend put it to me, “Ukraine is not the goal for Russia but a tool to challenge the global order”. I fear he is absolutely right. The war in Ukraine has a direct impact on us all on this continent of Europe, which is why we must maintain our strength and we must remain united.

Our direct influence on EU thinking might have diminished since Brexit, but our bilateral relations, including through our NATO partners, remain strong. We must do all we can to influence our European partners and to stress the importance of maintaining a united front. To add to the excellent set of principles given by the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, I emphasise that whatever happens in the months ahead, the guiding principle has to be that only Ukraine has the right to decide on Ukraine’s future.