Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2015

Baroness Sherlock Excerpts

Wednesday 25th February 2015 Grand Committee

[Baroness Sherlock (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his explanation of these orders and all noble Lords who have spoken. I shall be waiting with bated breath for his answer to my noble friend Lord Rooker; I look forward to hearing what he has to say about that. It is always a pleasure to be reunited with the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. Had he not appeared, a search party would have been sent out for him. It is very good that he has saved us all the trouble. It is always good to come back and do this.

I was going to play really nicely, but the Minister kicked off by boasting about the wonderful triple lock. I just cannot let that go. I am sorry, I know that time presses on, but I will say just a brief word. This is the first time since it was invented that the triple lock has delivered a higher rise in the state pension than the formula that was linked to the RPI which was in place before 2010. If the Minister is looking a little baffled, I am sure that inspiration from behind him will confirm that.

It is worth reflecting on the triple lock’s history. In its first year it was announced but not used because it would have given too small a rise—75p was probably ringing in ears. For the next three years the triple lock was applied but each year it delivered a pension increase lower than what would have been delivered had the previous formula linked to the RPI been used. This is the first year in which it has been higher than what would have been delivered under the system that was around pre-2010—the increase here is 2.5%; an increase of only 2.3% would have come from the RPI. This is the first year that it has actually kicked in. That is a little bit of context; I shall calm down and return to my more specific questions.

I notice that yet again the Government have decided effectively to pass through the pension credit effect, which is welcome, but to fund it yet again essentially at the expense of the savings credit. Can the Minister unpack for the Committee what effect that will have on the incentive to save? Inevitably, it is not a cost-free element. Could he tell us what the consequence of that will be?

As well as the state pension, the order contains uprating details for some elements of universal credit, as we have heard. Does the Minister have an estimate of how many people are likely to be affected by these? I think that the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, made a very important point. When the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill was going through Parliament, the Opposition and other noble Lords expressed concern about the effect on poorer households, particularly working households. At Second Reading, the noble Baroness, Lady Stowell of Beeston, prayed in aid universal credit in seeking to persuade noble Lords to back that Bill. That is exactly the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. She said,

“I would ask your Lordships to remember that we are working to restore the welfare system as well. This year will see the introduction of universal credit, an historic change that will create a welfare system that is simpler, more effective, and designed to ensure that work pays. We expect some 3.1 million households to gain from the move to universal credit, on average by £168 per month”.—[Official Report, 11/2/13; col. 460.]

We are some way from having 3.1 million households; I am not sure that we have even 10% of that. Could the Minister tell us what the current number is? Could he also tell us whether the Government still expect the average household to gain by £168 a month from the move to universal credit? If that is not the case, the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, is significant. Universal credit was offered up as being the reason why lots of other things had to happen, but that it would all be okay. If it is not, Parliament needs to know that.

I would also like to ask a very specific question about universal credit. One of the problems about having disaggregated all the ways in which uprating happens is that it is quite a job of work to track down where any particular element of any particular benefit is being uprated. The hardest thing to find is what is missing. What is happening to work allowances in universal credit? I fully admit that I may well have missed them. I tried to go through but I could not see them here. When I raised this last year, I was told that there was no requirement to mention them unless they were changing. If they are here, could the Minister point me to them and tell me what percentage they are being increased by? If they are not here, does that mean that they are not being increased for the second year in a row, so they are being cut in real terms?

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

I am sorry. I missed which benefits the noble Baroness was asking about.

[Baroness Sherlock]

I was asking about the work allowances in universal credit. I think that inspiration may be coming on this point. That information may be in the document, but last year I could not find it and was told that the reason it was not there was because the measure was not changing; in other words, it was not being increased even by the rate of inflation. I have not been able to find it this year.

However, what I have found this year is the childcare costs element—the maximum amounts. Again, they look to me as if they have not changed in cash terms. Is that right? We debated this issue at length when the Welfare Reform Bill was going through the House and we were told in careful detail what the improved work incentives would be under universal credit. However, if we keep effectively having real terms cuts in the work allowances and childcare elements, then each time we do that we are eroding the gains to work. Therefore, it is important that the Government are open and transparent with the Committee about what they expect the work incentives to look like. I understand that the Minister may not be in a position to give me that information today, but I would be very grateful if he would write and tell me what changes have been made to the new work incentives, and gains to work in particular, as a result of those moves.

The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, referred to the overall impact on living standards of the various measures that have been taken. I understand that the argument for the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Act was that it was a temporary deficit reduction measure. However, one of the things it has made harder to understand is what the cumulative impact has been on low-income households. As the Minister will be aware, there have been repeated calls from outside as well as inside Parliament for a cumulative impact assessment of the effects. We have always been told by Ministers that that could not be done. Recently, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report, The Effect of the Coalition’s Tax and Benefit Changes on Household Incomes and Work Incentives. The opening sentences say:

“Tax and benefit changes introduced by the coalition have reduced household incomes by £1,127 a year or 3.3% on average”.

The report points out that the average loss was made up of an increase due to reductions in direct taxes which was more than compensated for—badly—by increases in indirect taxes, and that is before the benefit cuts were taken into account. The IFS found that the result of that was that households with children have been hit hardest by tax and benefit changes and that the poorest households have lost more than 6% of their incomes. Meanwhile, those without kids in the middle of the income distribution saw their incomes rise. Whenever the Government mention the rise in the income tax personal allowance, of course what they do not point out is that that benefits those richer people who do not lose out as a result of social security changes such as those to tax credits, so the effect is regressive in that respect. Can the Minister tell the Committee what has been the impact of the combination of the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Act 1% increase and the uprating decisions on the benefits covered by these orders on those low-income households? If he cannot do so, will he write? Finally, what difference has the delay in rolling out universal credit made to the anticipated impact of its uprating strategy?

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

I was dealing with the point about savings credit, raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock. An assessment has been made regarding helping the most vulnerable, which we took to be those people who were not on savings credit. It is worth noting that, while no detailed assessment has been made of the number of people affected, there are more than 500,000 savings credit customers who qualify for other payments, which are being uprated by CPI, so a significant number of them are getting other benefits, as it were.

[Baroness Sherlock]

Did the Minister say that no assessment had been made of the impact of the change to the savings credit threshold?

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

No, I said that we have no precise figure for the number of people affected, which is somewhat different. I will write to the noble Baroness giving any information that we have but, as I understand it, we do not have a detailed figure on the number of people affected. What we know, though, is that more than 500,000 savings credit customers qualify for additional amounts under other benefits, which are being operated by CPI, so it is not something one can look at in isolation.

The noble Baroness made some points about universal credit. More than 3 million households will gain £176 per month on average when it is fully rolled out. She will have noted today’s PAC report, which recognises that the programme is more open and transparent and better governed, and that the twin-track approach is the best course of action. As I say, our approach appears to be working well, and that is borne out by the figures from the north-west.

She asked about the work allowances and the childcare element. Both of those are frozen. She is quite right to suggest that they are not being uprated; they are frozen at where they were last year. I think it is right to say that we are intending that there should be a move from 70% of childcare costs to 85%. I think we are aiming for 2016, so that is some good news on that front.

The noble Baroness referred to an overall assessment of the impact of benefits and tax changes. I will write to her on that; it would be a complex assessment to do over the length of the Parliament but, as I see it, it is certainly not an unreasonable request. I think that some of the figures produced by the Labour Party that I have seen knocking around—in fairness, the noble Baroness did not refer to them; she referred to independent ones—do not take account of the tax changes and seem to concentrate only on the benefits. To get the full picture, as I am sure she would acknowledge, we have to look at both—the increases in personal allowances, for example—and some of the figures that I have seen also use RPI rather than CPI. However, I will take that back and write to her, copying in other noble Lords, about how we see it playing out. I hope that I have covered the main points, although obviously I have not covered everything.

[Baroness Sherlock]

I thank the Minister for offering to write to me. On the question of cumulative impact, if he does not like the figures used by the Labour Party, the best thing to do is to offer the Government’s own, so I look forward to receiving them.

On the question of universal credit, I had hoped that he might be able to provide more information to interested noble Lords about the effect on what we are now likely to see in terms of gains to work and work incentives, because they will be affected by the changes to work allowances. Is that something that he might be able to do in due course?

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

On the first point, as I say, we will look at that to see how we can do it, but we will come up with figures only if we can be sure that they are sustainable, which I do not think the Labour Party figures are. That is the point that I was seeking to make. We can toss that one backwards and forwards all evening—or night, if this goes on—but yes, we will have a look at that and I will write to the noble Baroness about it.

On universal credit, I will pick up the point that she makes, but it is worth noting—I hope that she is not going to be churlish about this—that we have more people in employment than ever before. The evidence is that the impact is very favourable in the north-west, and it is best that we acknowledge this, along with the efforts that are being made by the Government and by local authorities—not necessarily being run by the Conservatives—to make sure that this is a success. The early signs are very favourable.

As I say, I will ensure that any other points that I have not taken up fully or not taken up at all are covered in writing to noble Lords. I hope that I have explained that we are spending an extra £2.5 billion on uprating pensions and other benefits in 2015-16, enabling us to protect key benefits. The order protects pensioners, many of whom have worked hard all their lives and are no longer in a position to increase their income through work, and also benefits disabled people, reflecting our commitment to protect those who are least able to increase their spending power. These are the principles behind the order, and on that basis I commend it to the Committee.