(1 day, 16 hours ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend and of course I am very much aware of Unite’s proposal to transition Grangemouth into a sustainable aviation fuel plant. We are very grateful for the input from Unite and will continue to engage with the union. I have to say, though, that I think the Project Willow approach is the best way forward. It evaluated over 300 technologies and identified nine potential technologies. We have £200 million available from the National Wealth Fund to invest. The focus at the moment is twofold. One is to give support to the workers who are going to lose their jobs. The second is to encourage private investors to look at these proposals. We have the National Wealth Fund, with £200 million to invest, to act as an incentive and we are working very hard in relation to that.
My Lords, I draw the House’s attention to my role as chair of the Environment and Climate Change Committee. What will be the process by which the preferred option or options will be chosen out of the nine front-runners identified by Project Willow? To what extent will the Circular Economy Taskforce be involved in the decision-making?
My Lords, Project Willow set out nine potential developments. The most near-term developments include hydrothermal plastic recycling, dissolution plastics recycling and ABE bio-refining. On the question about the task force, I will certainly discuss with my colleagues the ability of the task force to input into this. Clearly, in terms of decision-making, the key thing now is to find investors for those projects. Clearly, the National Wealth Fund, with the £200 million that it is going to make available, will play an important role in that.
(4 days, 16 hours ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, the noble Lord will know that through Urenco, at Capenhurst, we are investing a considerable amount of money into the HALEU programme to enable us to have the whole fuel cycle undertaken in the United Kingdom. This is good for energy security and good for exports. I understand the point that the noble Viscount makes about uranium. We are confident in the future supply, but I acknowledge his underlying point of the importance of nuclear energy as an essential baseload.
My Lords, it is the turn of the Lib Dem Benches.
Does the Minister agree that consumers choosing green electricity as their preferred source of power is a powerful driving force for the increasingly rapid uptake of electric vehicles, for example, given that UK EV sales increased by more than 20% last year? Surely it is far better than relying on fossil fuel generation from unstable regions such as the Middle East and Russia for long-term energy security.
My Lords, I totally agree with the noble Baroness that the wholesale move to electrification, not just in power generation but in transport, industrial processes and home heating, will lead us to be much more energy secure. We will ensure that we make the contribution we need to make to deal with climate change and we can grow the economy and bring thousands more green jobs to this country.
(2 weeks, 3 days ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, the best way to deal with energy prices is to move from being utterly reliant on international gas prices subject to the volatility that has arisen from the invasion of Ukraine by Putin. That is why we must move towards clean power as soon as we possibly can, to give ourselves energy security.
I cannot answer that question in relation to Rosebank and Jackdaw. The original consent decisions were subject to judicial review, which was paused pending the outcome of the Finch judgment. In the light of the Finch judgment, as I have said, we are consulting on new environmental impact assessments. When we have produced those, it will then be up to developers to make applications for consents according to the new guidelines we have produced. I cannot forecast the outcome of that process.
My Lords, who in government is responsible for collecting the data on spillages from the oil and gas industry operations in the UK? Scope 3 emissions take account primarily of greenhouse gas emissions, but they also take account of pollution. How do the Government deal with pollution, particularly in marine protected areas due to those spillages?
My Lords, in relation to the North Sea, the Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning has an important role to play in the work that is undertaken on oil and gas. Of course, we have wider environmental law. Defra has a role to play. The Department for Transport—obviously, in relation to the tragic incident that has taken place—also has a role to play. On the point the noble Baroness raised, there has to be a cross-government approach to protecting biodiversity and the health of our seas. My department certainly plays its part in that.
(3 weeks, 4 days ago)
Lords ChamberTo ask His Majesty’s Government what steps they are taking to promote action against climate change internationally following reports that 2024 was the warmest year on record globally.
My Lords, the Government are committed to driving forward action on climate change. At COP 29 we announced an ambitious target to reduce emissions by at least 81% by 2035, and we will continue to urge other countries to be as ambitious.
My Lords, last December the Environment and Climate Change Committee, which I chair, published its report on methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in its first decade. It is quite extraordinary that fully one-third of the global warming seen to date is due to methane, but methane is short-lived and its potency reduces rapidly, so we could slow near-term warming by cutting global methane emissions. Under UK leadership at COP 26 in Glasgow, the global methane pledge was signed, thanks in no small measure to the leadership of the noble Lord, Lord Sharma, who I am pleased to see in his place.
It is coming. It committed us to work with others to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by 2030. So can the Minister justify why, in their response to the Methane: Keep Up the Momentum report, the Government ruled out publishing a methane action plan for the UK, a key requisite for global climate leadership?
My Lords, the noble Baroness will know that we welcomed the report of her committee. We have provided a full written government response, including how we will support internal action to deliver on the global methane pledge. She will also know that we have included methane policies in our delivery plan for carbon budgets and will contribute towards the global methane pledge. I think that shows decisive action, and we are going to take strong international leadership to deliver against that pledge.
(2 months, 2 weeks ago)
Lords ChamberFor a very long time, we have taken supplies from Norway. It is surely a great advantage of our system that we can look to a diversity of supply. The North Sea supply has been declining over many years now; if it were not in that situation we could, where we needed gas in the future, just look there, but that is not the position. That is why we are trying to manage a transition which recognises that the North Sea still has a contribution to make. The essential point here is that we move as quickly as possible to clean power. That is the best way to get to homegrown energy, which I think the noble Baroness is really pointing to.
I wonder if I can move on to the need for warm homes. Heat pumps are very efficient in heating homes—every kilowatt of electricity generates three to four kilowatts of heat—yet cheaper electricity from renewables ends up being a more expensive option to heat homes than gas because the price of electricity is tied to the high price of gas. Does the Minister agree that this situation is nonsensical and that electricity prices must be decoupled from the price of gas?
That is a very wide question, and it is of course a matter that we should always keep under review. It is a situation that has existed for some time and which we inherited from the previous Government. On the substantive point, the noble Baroness is right about heat pumps and home insulation. We clearly need to make great progress on that.
(8 months, 1 week ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I congratulate the new Government on their very handsome general election victory. I also congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, on her government position and the noble Lord, Lord Hunt, on his new portfolio. He was a dark horse in that I knew little of the force of his convictions on the crucial issue of climate change that afflicts our planet. I hoped to learn more today, as I believe I have. Nevertheless, questions remain about whether he is truly prepared to put his shoulder to the wheel and deliver the transformative changes needed on so many fronts in the short time remaining to us, it being often repeated that this is the last decade in which decisive action can save the planet. I give him the benefit of the doubt. However, much rests on the shoulders of this Government. We on this side of the House will do our best to hold their feet to the fire to meet the challenges of climate change and nature across all sectors.
I also express my commiserations to the Conservative Benches, but I rather suspect that some of them view the result of the general election with relief, in that they can now sort out their internal differences outside the full glare of government. I hope they do so with speed, because this momentous issue needs an Opposition who speak with one voice. The country deserves to know whether they believe in the speedy transformative changes needed, or whether the deniers and delayers within their party will win the day.
I start my contribution to this new Parliament with a few thoughts on the severity of the threat we face from climate change and its provenance, because therein lies the answer. In my view, climate change is an existential crisis. There is no denying its cause: the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started with the Industrial Revolution, led by Britain, a mere 170 years or so ago.
The rapid release of long-buried carbon through the burning of fossil fuels has violently disrupted the balance of carbon flows between rocks and soil, the oceans and our atmosphere. The fact is that when we humans burn these fuels, vast amounts of carbon dioxide are released back into the atmosphere. This excess carbon changes our climate, increasing global temperatures, causing ocean acidification and disrupting the planet’s ecosystems and weather patterns. The devastation wrought on our planet’s natural balance system is everywhere for us to witness.
At the same time as we witness extreme weather events and natural disasters increase in frequency and intensity, we watch the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere go up and up. National Geographic tells us that, on 9 May in 2013, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded a long-awaited climate milestone: the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in 55 years of measurement, and probably for the first time in more than 3 million years of earth’s history. The last time the concentration of earth’s main greenhouse gas reached this mark, the seas were at least 9.1 metres —around 30 feet—higher. That is a level that would today inundate major cities around the world.
But here is the thing—then, carbon dioxide concentrations were on their way down. Today, we are in a very different scenario, because 400 parts per million is a mere milestone on a rapid uphill climb into uncharted territory. Until the 20th century, concentrations of carbon dioxide had not exceeded 300 parts per million, let alone 400 parts per million, for at least 800,000 years. That is how far back scientists have been able to measure carbon dioxide directly in bubbles of ancient air trapped in Antarctic ice cores. However, last month, in June 2024, the measured concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 427 parts per million. That should give us all pause for thought.
It is important to have this information recorded in Hansard because we know what we will do if we continue with business as usual, and as the world continues to burn fossil fuels at an increasing pace. The tragic fact is that global carbon dioxide emissions rose again in 2023, reaching record levels.
I believe this Government get it. Their manifesto spoke about tackling the nonsensical position in which we find ourselves regarding our dependence on energy sources from unstable regions in an uncertain world, which not just endangers our energy security but saddles our nation with unsustainable energy prices, all the while exacerbating the climate crisis.
I welcome the Government’s Great British Energy Bill to boost investment in clean power, but will the Minister tell us why the energy independence Bill has been shelved? There are other notable omissions from the King’s Speech, but I shall restrict my remarks to this sector. The Great British Energy Bill does not tackle the imbalance in the energy sector enjoyed by fossil fuel producers. There are a number of inequities in favour of the fossil fuel industry. One is MER—maximising economic recovery of oil and gas in the UK continental shelf; another is the subsidies and support enjoyed historically by the sector from various Governments. Yet another is the artificially high price of electricity.
When can we expect the Government’s priorities to turn to these matters? After all, the Labour manifesto undertook to implement the UK’s G7 pledge to end fossil fuel subsidies. When can we expect that to happen? Labour’s manifesto states:
“We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good”.
These are fine words, which I welcome, but where is the legislation to follow through with this critical action? When can we expect news on what the Government intend to do to decouple electricity prices from the wholesale gas price? In March last year, the Guardian reported, based on research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats, that the UK Government had
“given £20bn more in support to fossil fuel producers than those of renewables since 2015”.
Can the Minister promise that such articles will now be a thing of the past?
That old adage, “Where there’s muck there’s brass” holds true today in the fight against climate change. While there are profits still to be made in fossil fuels, unscrupulous people will reap those benefits, and they have shown that they do not care how mucky they get. They must be made aware that their time is up. We must turn off the tap and stop adding ever more carbon into our atmosphere, or future generations will never forgive us.
(10 months, 2 weeks ago)
Lords ChamberTo ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the implications of their decision to cancel the pilot plan for a ‘hydrogen town’.
It is me again, I am afraid.
We have decided not to progress work on a hydrogen town pilot until after a decision in 2026 on any potential role for hydrogen in heating. The Government carefully considered the implications of this decision and the alternative options. Heat pumps and heat networks will be the primary means of decarbonisation for the foreseeable future.
I start by congratulating the Minister on injecting a modicum of common sense into the myth that hydrogen could ever be a meaningful player in home heating. My Question was prompted by a conversation with the CEO of a heat battery company, who is having to postpone a decision to build a new factory until the Government can give a clear signal that the 2026 deadline for the hydrogen strategy review has gone. Will the Minister take this opportunity to give him that clarity, so that he and others can add to the 9% green growth seen last year in an otherwise stagnant economy?
I would be very interested in speaking to the noble Baroness’s contact in heat batteries; I have also met a number of heat battery manufacturers. For those who have not come across it, it is a great growth industry in the UK and a fantastic technology. There is one particularly good company up in Scotland that I visited recently. I am not sure what extra clarification we could provide that would help her contact. We have said—indeed, I said it in my Answer—that heat pumps, heat networks and electrification will be by far the vast majority of the decarbonisation of home heating in the UK. If hydrogen plays any role at all, it will be only a very tiny one.
(1 year ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I thank the House for allowing me to speak in the gap. Before I move on to what I had planned to say, I will ask the Minister three questions. First, will the successful licensees be eligible for grants? If so, how much will they be? Secondly, who will be responsible for decommissioning costs throughout the lifetime of the new fields? Thirdly, if in the fullness of time any of the new fields become stranded assets, what safeguards will he put in place to make sure that the British taxpayer is not liable for the bill?
I will keep my remarks very short. I want to make just a few points on the Bill’s conflict with the legally, morally and ethically binding net-zero commitments that the UK has made both domestically and in international fora.
I will start with the Bill’s conflict with the IEA, the International Energy Agency, which knows a thing or two about global energy security. In its 2021 report, Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, the IEA stated that there could be no new oil and gas fields after 2021 if we are to limit warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade. It reiterated this in 2023. Our own Climate Change Committee, in its COP28: Key Outcomes report of January this year, stated very politely that
“the UK should reassess whether further exploration for new sources of fossil fuels is aligned with the UNFCCC principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility and the Global Stocktake”.
It refers, of course, to our NDC.
A red alert warning from the World Meteorological Organization just last week confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record by a clear margin. According to the FT’s editorial team in an opinion article just two days ago, on 24 March:
“More than 90 per cent of the world’s oceans suffered heatwave conditions, glaciers lost the most ice on record and the extent of Antarctic sea ice fell to by far the lowest levels ever measured”.
Given all that, surely discretion is the greater part of valour, and we must proceed with extreme caution and seek to reduce the greenhouse gas inventory as quickly as possible. I know that the Minister will say that he agrees with me and will assert that this Bill does not derail the UK’s direction of travel. But that is exactly what it does. The Bill does not sit comfortably with the Government’s commitments made at COP 28 just a few short months ago, along with 200 other countries, to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action in this critical decade. We cannot maintain credibility on the global stage while we say one thing and do exactly the opposite.
My Lords, I thank all Members from across the House for what has been quite a good debate, for the interest that they have taken in the Bill and for the many insightful contributions that we have had today. I think the debate has shown how interconnected the future of North Sea oil and gas production is with the huge effort we are making—and I am grateful to the noble Earl, Lord Russell, for instance, for pointing out the huge effort we are making —to decarbonise the UK economy through what is a renewables revolution. Nobody disputes that. I do not think anybody in the debate disputed the importance of net zero.
The Government’s position is entirely consistent with delivering on our targets, but we have to manage the decline of North Sea oil and gas production in a predictable and responsible way. I thought that was an excellent point made by the noble Lord, Lord Bruce, from the Liberal Democrat Benches. It is a pity that his two colleagues did not reflect his excellent contribution.
Restrictions on future licensing would be a grave act of national self-sabotage and would place in jeopardy more than 200,000 jobs that OEUK figures show are currently supported by our domestic oil and gas industry. It would forego up to 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent and, equally importantly, remove an important source of tax revenue. That would mean more imports, including of liquefied natural gas, which has up to four times the production emissions of our own natural gas—a point well made by my noble friends Lord Lilley, Lord Moynihan and Lord Ashcombe. It would mean that we forego investment in clean technologies and the energy transition that our oil and gas industry is vital to driving forward, and it would leave us more vulnerable to hostile states, as we saw during the invasion of Ukraine. We need this investment, and we need the sector’s existing supply chains, expertise and skills. Introducing annual licensing rounds through this Bill will help to protect this investment. It will strengthen our energy security and support that essential transition to net zero.
Let me now deal with some of the specific point made during the debate. I thank my noble friends Lord Moynihan and Lord Ashcombe for their speeches, which recognised that the Bill will support our essential energy security. However, I am aware that other noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Lennie, the noble Baronesses, Lady Hayman and Lady Young, and the noble Earl, Lord Russell, suggested the opposite. As I outlined in my opening speech, the UK still relies on oil and gas for most of our energy needs and will continue to do so well into the future, despite our excellent record on rolling out renewables. The UK is exceptionally well placed to support our own energy security and that of our neighbours and allies. As has been pointed out, we have pipelines connecting us to Norway, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. We have the second-largest liquefied natural gas port infrastructure in Europe, and our infrastructure was essential to helping out our European friends and allies during the Russian crisis that they all suffered last winter.
Of course, we also have our domestic oil and gas production, which is a vital part of ensuring our own and our allies’ energy security. We currently produce about half our gas demand from the North Sea. The vast majority of UK-produced gas lands in the UK and combines with imports and storage to provide a healthy and well-supplied gas market. While 80% of the oil produced here is indeed refined abroad, 90% of that takes place in Europe, where it is made into the products that we need in the UK. Maintaining this resource reduces our vulnerability and that of our European allies to hostile states and leaves us less exposed to unpredictable international events. If the invasion of Ukraine pointed out anything to us, surely it pointed out that. Following that invasion, it was our domestic capability that helped us to support our European neighbours to wean themselves off Russian gas and oil, which most European states have now successfully done. By giving industry certainty about the future of licensing rounds, the Bill will help safeguard our domestic production and, in doing so, enhance the UK’s energy security.
Next, let me respond to the points raised by the noble Lord, Lord Lennie, and the noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, that the Bill will not reduce energy bills. Of course, it is true that oil and gas are traded on a global market. As a net importer of oil and gas, this benefits us. The Government have also ensured that excess energy profits are being used to ease pressures on families across the country. This support helped to save the average household £1,500 on its energy bill last winter. The difficult but necessary decision to further extend the energy profits levy for one more year will raise an additional £1.5 billion contribution from the sector to help us cut taxes for hard-working families, reward hard work and support economic growth.
I have also heard claims that the Bill affects the UK’s international leadership on climate. I thank my noble friend Lord Lilley for his excellent speech, which showed why that is not the case. By contrast, some noble Lords—the noble Lord, Lord Lennie, the noble Baronesses, Lady Hayman, Lady Sheehan and Lady Blake, and the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Norwich—suggested that somehow the Bill would negatively impact our climate leadership. Our record speaks for itself. We are, as I constantly repeat, the first major economy to halve our emissions, and we are leading the world with our climate performance. Our 2030 target is one of the most ambitious among major economies, and again I am glad that the noble Earl, Lord Russell, recognised this. The Bill, I repeat, will not undermine those commitments.
Not proceeding with new licensing, as is the Opposition’s policy, is the real risk to our climate leadership. If we lose the skilled jobs that will transfer from oil and gas to renewables, we put at risk the transition to renewables and net zero. Some other noble Lords, including the noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, and the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, who I am sorry to say is no longer in her place—apologies, she is sitting on the Bishops’ Bench, which is a great surprise to us all; I did not see the noble Baroness down there—raised concerns about the tests in the Bill. These tests have been carefully designed to ensure that new licensing supports our important net-zero commitments. The tests are in fact meaningful. Those tests being met would be a reflection of the fact that the UK is a net importer and that production emissions associated with North Sea gas are lower than imported liquefied natural gas.
There was also some discussion of carbon capture, usage and storage. This point was raised by the noble Baronesses, Lady Jones and Lady Young. The Climate Change Committee, often quoted in this debate, has described CCUS as
“a necessity not an option”
for the transition to net zero. CCUS will be essential to meeting the UK’s 2050 net-zero target, playing a vital role in levelling up the economy, supporting the low-carbon economic transformation of our industrial regions and creating new high-value jobs. The first two CCUS clusters are in the north-west and north-east of England, and we are proceeding as fast as possible to final investment decisions for those clusters. They are already generating thousands of jobs in Merseyside in the north-west and in Teesside, areas that the noble Lord, Lord Lennie, and I know well.
I move on to the points raised about marine protected areas. The noble Baronesses, Lady Hayman, Lady Willis and Lady Boycott, raised the important matter of marine protection. Let me also address the questions posed by the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Norwich. I assure the House that the Government share the desire to protect the marine environment. Indeed, we have committed that we will be the first generation to leave the environment in a better state than that in which we found it. The UK is committed to the 30 by 30 global target under the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework.
We already have a robust regulatory framework in place to ensure that marine protected areas are effectively protected. Licences will be awarded only after ensuring that the environmental regulator OPRED is satisfied that activities will not have negative effects on those important protected areas. Future licensing will not affect our ability to reach our targets for ensuring that our marine protected areas are in a good or recovering state.
Furthermore, it is important to emphasise that human activity is not banned in marine protected areas. We constrain activities in MPAs, but the intention of the policy is not to forbid activity, especially where the environmental impact is assessed as not causing damage and is closely evaluated and monitored. Work is under way to ensure that we strike the right, important balance between our different marine priorities. The soon-to-be-commissioned strategic spatial energy plan and the cross-government marine spatial prioritisation programme will ensure that we take a more strategic approach to identifying future sites for marine developments and energy infrastructure, while allowing for nature’s important recovery.
In response to the questions from the noble Baroness, Lady Sheehan, the North Sea Transition Authority is responsible for ensuring that operators decommission abandoned wells within the recommended timeframe of two to five years. The noble Baroness also asked me if we would be giving any grants for oil production: no is the answer. In fact, the opposite is the case: any new production will generate billions in tax revenues, the very opposite of giving out government grants. The Government continue to work with the NSTA and the Health and—
The Minister has not addressed my third question, about stranded assets. Should these fields become so in the fullness of time, will he put in place safeguards to make sure that the British taxpayer is not liable for the costs?
The noble Baroness often raises this point. The industry pays billions of pounds in taxes every year, and oil companies are ultimately responsible for decommissioning their assets. As has been pointed out, they are commercial operations. If the fields are stranded assets and the oil companies lose money on them, I doubt whether anybody will shed any tears for them. They are responsible for decommissioning the assets, as is taking place now in many of the depleted fields. I think she needs to have a friendly cup of coffee with her noble friend Lord Bruce, who will fill her in on the details of how the industry works.
Yes, we get billions in taxes; that is because trillions are made in profits. What I am really concerned about is that if the businesses fold, the profits have been pocketed but the taxpayer will be left with the costs. Does the Minister accept that?
If the noble Baroness is asking me if they pay billions in taxes and make billions in profits, then yes, I guess the answer is that the international oil companies do very well out of it. Of course, some of them are also financing renewable infrastructure. Some of the big oil and gas companies are helping to invest in CCUS in this country. We very much hope that they will continue to make profits, because it pays our pension funds and a lot of investors, and a huge amount of money into the UK Exchequer that the Liberal Democrats are normally very keen on spending. The noble Baroness needs to allow that money to be raised in the first place. The companies are responsible for decommissioning their assets.
The Government continue to work with the NSTA and the Health and Safety Executive to ensure that well decommissioning is progressing in line with the relevant safety and environmental regulations and standards. That is exactly the same as has been happening previously. The UK has a very robust decommissioning regime whereby operators are responsible for decommissioning their assets at the end of their useful life. This regime of course includes protections for taxpayers, so that the costs fall on those operators. I hope the noble Baroness is reassured by that.
I was of course also pleased to hear the support of the noble Lord, Lord Bruce, for the jobs in the sector. He has a lot of relevant experience, particularly in north-east Scotland. This is in line with the words of Sir Ian Wood:
“Owing to a world-class oil and gas sector, the North East … is home to the critical mass in skills and expertise that will be crucial to ensuring that we successfully accelerate new and green energies, protecting and creating jobs as we do so”.
I am pleased to have the support of the Labour Party, but we must retain those skilled jobs in the industry, and our firm belief is that this Bill will help us to achieve exactly that.
To conclude, the Bill will give industry the certainty and confidence it needs to continue to invest in the North Sea, strengthening our energy security and supporting the energy transition as we move towards our goal of net zero, through the introduction of annual licensing rounds, subject, of course, to all the appropriate tests being met. I look forward to continuing the scrutiny of the Bill as it progresses through the House, but in the meantime, I beg to move.
(1 year, 2 months ago)
Lords ChamberTo ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of recent reports that global heating is likely to pass the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold this year, and how they intend to cooperate with international partners to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who will be contributing to this debate; their participation is much appreciated. I also draw attention to my role as a director of Peers for the Planet and to the excellent briefing produced by it for this debate, entitled Why UK Action Matters. My own contribution will focus primarily on the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, its significance, and why breaching it matters.
Let me take us back to the last day of the Paris COP in 2015, when euphoria broke out because, against all the odds, 196 nations had signed up to the common intent of keeping global temperature rises well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to pursue efforts for a rise of no more than 1.5 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. This agreement was important because it reflected the acceptance of the overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that greenhouse gas emissions from the industrialisation of western economies since the 1800s are heating our planet to unacceptable levels. The evidence was incontrovertible then and it is even more so today.
I will just say a few words about the Keeling curve, named after its creator, Dr Charles David Keeling, who first started to plot the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere in 1958, taking measurements at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory. Keeling was interested in the seasonal variation of the concentration of carbon dioxide, which showed, if you like, the respiration of our planet as a living, breathing organism. However, as measurements accumulated, he noticed something odd: the annual trend in the concentration of global carbon dioxide was upwards, rising from about 360 parts per million in 1959 to about 370 parts per million in 2000 and around 420 parts per million today. The more numerically inclined noble Lords among us will notice that the rate of change is increasing. When taken together with measurements of concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide from Antarctic ice cores, and plotted on a graph, as NASA has done on its website, a frightening picture emerges. In the span of the 800,000 years for which we have data, there is an exponential spike in the concentration of carbon dioxide since the start of the Industrial Revolution—a comparatively tiny speck of time.
We also know that there is a direct link between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and global warming, which is manifesting itself as the climate chaos and threat to nature that we see today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options. Through its assessments, the IPCC determines the state of knowledge on climate change. IPCC climate scientists are urging political leaders to do all they can to keep within the l.5 degree Celsius target because, in a world with a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius, many of the deadliest effects of climate change are reduced—some of which we heard addressed in the previous debate on infectious diseases. Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, the catastrophic, irreversible melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica is likely to be triggered, meaning that sea levels would continue to rise well beyond 2100.
There are signs that this is happening already. Yesterday, the New York Times reported that NASA studies show that Greenland is shedding 20% more ice than previously estimated. The loss of the ice sheet could mean that the associated albedo effect would be lost—that is, the reflectivity of the ice would disappear with the ice sheet, and the newly-exposed bare ground would absorb the sun’s heat instead and release methane into the atmosphere, exacerbating heating even further. In addition, melting freshwater would reduce the salinity of the surrounding ocean, with consequences for the system of ocean currents that govern our weather, including the Gulf Stream. We would quite literally be in uncharted waters.
The year 2023 was the hottest by far ever recorded—shockingly, even hotter than scientists had predicted. Despite that, we have not yet breached the IPCC 1.5 degrees Celsius target, which is a longer-term average, but are we going to overshoot it? The answer to that question has to be yes, very probably, but what matters is by how much and how we deal with it. That is still within our control. Indeed, COP 28 has instilled hope that we can limit the damage. The early success of COP 28 on day one, when the loss and damage fund was announced, boded well.
I cannot overstate the importance of the fund. Small island nations and low-lying nations are already suffering the consequences of the climate emergency. To ask them and other developing countries to pay to reduce emissions that they were not responsible for, and to put in place costly adaptation measures for their very survival, is to rub salt into the wound and unjust. In any case, they simply do not have the resources to do so. Yet research from Oxford University tells us that cumulative emissions from small emitting countries, ourselves included, add up to a significant 31% of total development global emissions. We are all in this together.
The fact is that, unless we get smaller developing countries on board, we cannot transition away from fossil fuels—a phrase that is now in the world lexicon thanks to the final agreement document of COP 28; although in my view, and I believe that of the Government’s team of negotiators at COP 28, “phase out” would have been the preferred term. Nevertheless, finally, after 26 or so COPs, we have a mention of fossil fuels—a belated but welcome recognition globally of the cause of the climate emergency.
However, even if we were to stop emissions from fossil fuels tomorrow, according to the Royal Society and other esteemed sources, it would take many thousands of years for atmospheric CO2 to return to pre-industrial levels, due to its very slow transfer to the deep ocean and ultimate burial in marine sediments. What is needed today is global leadership to move us away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. We must stop adding to the inventory of greenhouse gases while ramping up energy from renewables, because the world needs more energy.
For many years, the UK has been in the vanguard, particularly in generating renewables. Where we have led, others have followed. However, the world is aghast at this Government’s recent actions to give the go-ahead to a new coal mine in Cumbria and their insistence on pushing ahead with the unnecessary Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill to issue new annual licences to oil and gas companies. My own view is that both measures are gesture politics and neither will ultimately matter. The real damage is the loss of our powerful voice on the international stage, helping the world to move away from the precipice of climate breakdown and the associated collapse of our planet’s natural ecosystems.
I will leave noble Lords with one very important example of why our presence on the world stage matters. Action on methane is essential because methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and responsible for a whopping 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times. However, it is much shorter-lived than carbon dioxide and achieving significant reductions would have a potentially rapid effect on atmospheric warming. In Glasgow at COP 26, we led the world on getting a global methane pledge signed. I ask the Minister: where is our leadership on the issue today? What action have we taken?
In conclusion, hope has always sustained humankind and experience has shown that, when the global community acts as one, we can move mountains—and move mountains we must to safeguard our planet. Britain’s place must be at the forefront of that effort.
(1 year, 3 months ago)
Lords ChamberI understand the point that the right reverend Prelate is making, but one person’s disinformation is another person’s free choice and free speech. There is always robust debate about all of these issues. There will be continue to be robust political debate about it, and I think that is right in a democratic society. We are very clear on the policy that we should be following and that we are committed to. We are committed to net zero; it is a legal obligation. The Government are committed to that trajectory.
My Lords, the agreed wording of COP 28 in the small hours of this morning does not go far enough, given that scientific consensus is strongly in favour of a phase-out of fossil fuels. Nevertheless, this is what we have signed up to. Can the Minister say whether the Government will publish a plan to say how they will meet our commitment to
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just … and equitable manner, accelerating”
—and that is a key word—
“action in this critical decade”.
We are into semantics and wording, but a transition away with clear deadlines is, in our view, a phase-out in all but name. It is not the language that we would have preferred, but in a multilateral negotiation there has to be compromise. We are very clear on the trajectory we are following. We have published numerous plans about our transition. We are accelerating the rollout of renewables and reducing our use of oil and gas, and that will continue.