Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020
Baroness Morrissey Excerpts(3 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Morrissey (Con) [V]
My Lords, I am honoured to follow my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe and agree with so much of what she said, and with other Members of your Lordships’ House. They have put forward such compelling arguments around the shortcomings of the Government’s approach in decreeing another national lockdown.
I do not want to repeat anything that others have said but, as a businesswoman, I would like to draw parallels with how decisions are required to be made in business, at least those that will affect many stakeholders. In business, the higher the stakes, the higher the burden of proof on the decision-makers. A FTSE 100 CEO announcing a major change in strategy needs to bring along those who are affected by setting out the basis for the decision, the pros and cons and the likely impacts—good and bad—across all parts of the business and groups that will be affected. If it is a particularly controversial decision, that CEO may also take the trouble to explain what other options were considered and why they were not chosen. He or she will share the numbers, the assumptions behind them and the projections into the future and take detailed questions. If noble Lords ever attend a company’s results day, they will find it a spreadsheet-heavy affair. Even if it is sobering news, if the case is well made and the analysis sound then shareholders and other stakeholders, such as employees, tend to go along with the decision. The CEO respects the need to bring them with him or her because if he or she does not and the news is unpalatable, they will vote with their feet.
Of course, I completely understand that running the country is not the same as running a business. No, the stakes are much higher and far more people are affected, which is why there needs to be scrutiny and sound evidence to back up such decisions, at least in a democracy.
Let us remember that we have had eight months to develop our understanding, modelling and preparedness for Covid-19. We should not be back to where we started. Yet we hear a reprise of the justification used in March that we willingly accepted at the time because we knew so little about the virus and its impact, and had not built capacity in the NHS or effective treatments for those hospitalised.
At present, although we have even more to lose and the economy is already fragile, the less we are told, the weaker the basis is for the decision. There is vagueness and confusion around the medical evidence used to justify the second lockdown decree. On Monday, when Conservative MP Huw Merriman asked why East Sussex was being locked down when it had,
“one of the lowest Covid rates of any county”,
the Prime Minister replied that
“the medical data is, alas, overwhelming.”—[Official Report, Commons, 2/11/20; col. 49.]
I use my analogy again. Imagine a FTSE CEO, when challenged by an analyst about a decision to close, say, a factory, saying, “Alas, we just have to”. Real data is needed, not just numbers around the virus, although that would be a very useful start, given that the Government’s scientific advisers seem unconvinced by the out-of-date graph shown alongside Saturday’s announcement.
In my draft of this speech, I was going to say that there is no evidence that the Government have undertaken a broader impact assessment before coming to the conclusion that a second lockdown was necessary.
Baroness Morrissey (Con) [V]
There has now been an admission that no such impact analysis has been made. Yet although we do not know whether lockdown will work or even if it is necessary—
Baroness Morrissey (Con) [V]
We know, as others have said, that the collateral damage will be devastating. We and the public need to see how devastating that will be and why the other options, such as continuing with tiers 1 to 3 local restrictions or shielding only those who are vulnerable, would be worse. No one from the Government has shared any such analysis. Presumably, the Treasury has modelled the outcome on the economy, so why can we not see that? What are the expected excess deaths from untreated cancers, heart disease and suicides borne out of loneliness, despair and poverty?
Baroness Penn (Con)
My Lords, the time limit for Back-Bench contributions is three minutes. Everyone else has respected that limit and I will have to ask the noble Baroness to draw her remarks to a close.
Baroness Morrissey (Con) [V]
I will do so. I apologise.
It is shocking that when the stakes are so high, when a draconian step is being dictated to us, so little information is shared. Saying “alas” is not good enough. Will the Minister explain why the Government have not carried out an impact assessment and whether they plan to do so now?
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (North East of England) Regulations 2020
Baroness Morrissey Excerpts(3 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Morrissey (Con)
My Lords, we all want the Government and this country to win the battle against coronavirus, but what if the present strategy is just plain wrong? What if the strategy of ever tighter restrictions on bigger swathes of the population is not only not containing the virus but will never do so, while causing untold damage to the lives of so many?
I am afraid that the evidence suggests that this is what is happening. People sometimes say that the cure is worse than the disease. Unfortunately, the measures may be no cure at all. As the Minister said, since tighter measures were introduced in many parts of the country, including the north-east, two months ago, we have seen a sharp rise in cases. At the same time, the collateral damage is mounting. The nascent economic recovery has stalled; unemployment is rising, albeit still the tip of the iceberg of what we might yet see. The poverty that will come as a result of those job losses is obviously not far behind. University students, already fearful for their future, are incarcerated in their halls of residence. Mental health issues are clearly arising and worsening. The arts, hospitality and sports sectors are on their knees. Everyone I speak to—I am sure that it is the same for everybody in the House today—is exhausted and dispirited and can see no end in sight.
Instead of doubling down on a flawed strategy, the Government should have a big rethink—after all, a popular definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and again and expecting a different result. The only plausible defence for this would be if it were the only way, but that is not so. We have seen in the past week the publication of the Great Barrington declaration by eminent scientists, now signed by 27,000 medical practitioners and other scientists, which sets out a different way. It recognises that younger, healthy people should be free to live their lives pretty much as normal, while the more vulnerable should be offered—not have imposed—greater, more focused protections.
Since March, when I think we were all frightened—I certainly was—by the spectre of a potential 500,000 deaths hanging over us, we have learned a lot. Lockdown might have seemed an appropriate measure at that point, however extreme. We now know that the fatality rate from this illness is not so severe as that, though it is still a very serious and harmful virus. What we have really learned is that it does not treat people equally. That may be very unfair, but we know that young people are a thousandfold less likely to suffer than people who are over 80. Some 70,000 students from 50 American universities tested positive; three were hospitalised and, fortunately, none has died.
There is no playbook to consult for coronavirus. There would be no shame—in fact, I think we would all applaud it—if the Government took account of the evidence that is mounting and came up with a different, more sophisticated approach that recognised that the restrictions are not necessary for every single person in this country, or if they were at least prepared to consider the evidence. If they do not, it is important that they are absolutely confident that it is the right way forward and only way forward and have the evidence to prove it.
We are reading a lot at present but I want to conclude by reading out a letter that I am sure some of your Lordships have seen already, so forgive me for repeating it. It moved me greatly. It was in the Telegraph last week and was written by an Elizabeth Clarke—she is not from the north-east but from London:
“Does no one in the Government hear the screams and whimpers of this tormented nation, amid the unemployment, the loneliness, the heartbreak, the fear, the poverty, the despair, the cruelty caused by blind deference to unproved theories? … It is as if someone who, to kill a hornet, sets off a bomb in a house—and in the ruins says it was the only way. Covid may be here to stay. There are many unpleasant diseases. Mortality is 100 per cent in the long run. I am 80, and it is no business of the Government to tell me whether or not to kiss my grandchildren, or whom I may invite into my house.”
Minister, what do you say to Elizabeth Clarke? What do you say to those who are lonely, who are scared, who are suffering poverty and who are frightened about their future?
Coronavirus Act 2020: Temporary Provisions
Baroness Morrissey Excerpts(3 years, 7 months ago)
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Baroness Morrissey (Con) (Maiden Speech)
My Lords, it was a great honour to be introduced to the House two weeks ago. I pray to God that He blesses and guides my words and my deeds here.
As the other two new Members of the House mentioned, we have had a very warm welcome, even with the coronavirus restrictions. I mentioned to my husband, Richard, the other day that, if ever I am in need of a pick-me-up, I shall come along to the House of Lords, where everybody, including all the staff, has made me feel very much at home—albeit a rather grander home than I am used to.
I should like to pay a special tribute to my two supporters: my noble friend Lord Lamont and the noble Baroness, Lady Goudie. There seems to be a bit of a competition this afternoon as to who has known my noble friend Lord Lamont the longest. I cannot compete with the 60-odd years that have been cited, but we have known each other for several years, ever since he was a brilliant guest speaker at Newton Investment Management seminars for our clients a few years ago. The seminars entailed us travelling around the country together for a week—sort of on tour. At the end of that time, I appreciated that he was not only a great speaker but wonderful company as well, and we have been great friends ever since. I thank my noble friend for his generous support.
The noble Baroness, Lady Goudie, and I have worked together for many years on the 30% Club. Frankly, I have been amazed at the jump in the proportion of women on company boards in this country, from less than 10% when we started the campaign a decade ago to over 30% today. Much of this must be attributed to the wonderful way that the noble Baroness had of making me implement some of my more unusual ideas when there were probably at least 100 reasons not to. I am very grateful to her for that. We have not always seen eye to eye on everything, but we have never let that get in the way of our friendship. In fact, the premise of the 30% Club is that we need diversity of thought; we need challenge and robust debate if we are to get to the right decision. I have seen that it is very easy for people to subscribe to that in the good times, but it is in times of challenge, disruption and threat than I am afraid that that fine principle is often disregarded. Yet, in my experience, those are precisely the moments when we most need to be open-minded, to listen to each other, to be honest about what we know and do not know, and to be transparent. It is clear that we live in such a time.
I am a supporter of Her Majesty’s Government and I wish to see them succeed, particularly in their battle against the coronavirus pandemic. But on what basis can Parliament judge whether their decisions are the right ones if it is neither informed nor involved? Let us take the rule of six, which my noble and learned friend Lord Clarke mentioned but which he did not think would have many implications for many people. However, I am a mother of nine and seven of them are still at home, so it has rather a big bearing on us. If we have any workmen coming to the house, we have to evacuate. But Parliament was obviously not even informed of that announcement before the media were told, let alone given the opportunity to scrutinise, to challenge, to consider alternative courses of action or to vote.
When I was CEO of Newton, which I was for 15 years, I learned that my job was very much about balancing different hopes and fears, multiple risks and opportunities. I did not have the luxury of focusing on just one; nor could I afford to listen to the advice of, say, only the compliance officer or follow the lawyer or, for that matter, the economist, otherwise that would have been of severe detriment to the business. My job was to balance the different considerations.
Today, the stakes in this country are extraordinarily high. Parliament needs to feel confident that the Government are balancing the need to protect the vulnerable from coronavirus with the very many other health risks that have been mentioned today, with the economic challenges, and with the profound impacts that the lockdown measures are having on young people and on lonely people, and of course on our civil liberties.
I am delighted to join this House. I understand that it is the guardian of the parliamentary process and, as such, a guardian of the interests of the British people. As has been observed today, the Government have very hard choices to make, as the Chancellor said last week, so let us ensure that Parliament can do its job: that it can scrutinise measures before they are enforced, and that the diverse perspectives of Members of both this House and the other place are drawn into the discussion, so that the best courses of action can be taken for this country and its people.