Ukraine Update

Debate between Baroness Goldie and Lord Newby

Monday 5th September 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, I too thank the noble Baroness for repeating the Statement.

Since we rose for the Summer Recess, the Ukrainian army has had some very significant successes and appears to be making extremely good use of the resources which we and our allies are providing it with.

We on these Benches, like the Opposition, remain supportive of the stance which the Government have taken in supporting the Ukrainian Government, and we welcome the initiatives that the Secretary of State has outlined in the Statement. I have just a few questions.

First, on Zaporizhzhia, the UN is quoted in the Statement as being concerned about the dangerous situation which still obtains there. In the light of that—presumably the UK Government agree with that assessment—what scenario planning has been undertaken to look at the potential fallout, literally, of a major nuclear release at Zaporizhzhia, which is by no means impossible?

On the gifting of military equipment, there will come a point—in some areas, we have probably reached it—when we have gifted all the equipment we have or cannot gift any more without our own capabilities being too far eroded. Can the Minister confirm that new orders are being placed to replace donated stock and/or produce new equipment which we can then simply gift directly from the factory to the Ukrainian army?

Training is one of the most commendable aspects of the work we have done, not least because we have been able to add a considerable amount of capacity at a very modest cost. I echo the questions asked by the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, on the future plans for this scheme in terms of both the number of soldiers involved and its scope. Is any training involving the Ukrainian air force and navy currently being undertaken or planned?

I want to ask about the scope of the international support fund. Is it limited, as I suspect it is, to arms and military supplies or does it extend to the concept of a broader Marshall plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine? We are going to need that at some point; I just wonder whether this initiative will form the nucleus of such a broader scheme.

It was reported in the FT today that the EU is to hold a summit of European states next month to build regional co-operation in the face of Russian aggression, and that the UK has been invited to participate. Can the Minister tell us whether the UK has indeed received such an invitation and, if so, whether it has responded to it? If the answer to the latter part of the question is no, I ask the Minister to urge her colleagues—not least the new Prime Minister—that it is crucial that the UK is represented at any such event so that we can both demonstrate the maximum degree of European unity on the issue and ensure that the UK exercises the maximum influence on the co-ordinated European response.

Finally, I want to ask a couple of questions about refugees. I accept that they may be beyond the Minister’s immediate remit but perhaps she could write to me if she cannot answer them. First, what is the Government’s plan for further support for Ukrainian refugees here once we have passed the six-month point? Secondly, how long do the Government envisage the scheme being open? At what point do they envisage themselves saying that the situation in Ukraine is stable enough for the scheme to end? Thirdly, what plans do the Government have to expand the support that British universities are giving to students from Ukraine, particularly in technical subjects such as medicine where, again, as with the basic military training, a small amount of expenditure could yield significant results for Ukraine’s future prospects?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My Lords, first, I thank the noble Lords, Lord Coaker and Lord Newby, for the tenor of their introductory remarks, which was welcome; I particularly thank them for their kind remarks in relation to me. As I have said before—my right honourable friend the Secretary of State echoed this today in the other place—the force and cogency with which the UK has been able to assist Ukraine have been helped enormously by political unanimity in Westminster. It has sent a very strong message, not just to friends and allies but to Mr Putin, that in the UK there is absolutely united resolve at the political level to deal with and address this evil, and not just to talk about it but to put our money where our mouth is and provide substantive help. I am grateful to both noble Lords for their positive comments.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the issue of training and the timeframe, as was echoed by the noble Lord, Lord Newby. Although we have planned with an initial training programme of 10,000 Ukrainian personnel, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State indicated today in the other place that this support will, frankly, be provided for as long as it is needed. I think we all understand that this training is having a hugely positive impact on both the morale and the capacity and capability of the Ukrainian armed forces to deal with this threat within their country. We are under no illusions about the support that we can give on the training front, and so we accept that we are not putting a timeframe on it. We will rely on Ukraine to tell us what it needs and how many people it can present for training. We can have all the capacity and capability, but we need the Ukrainian armed forces to present people for training.

The noble Lord, Lord Newby, asked about numbers. The Statement referred to the numbers that we have been training and hope to train. My understanding is that we plan to provide up to 1,050 UK service personnel to facilitate the training of the Ukrainian armed forces.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the matter of whether we can meet the demand for weapons and asked what we are doing about replacement. These are very pertinent questions. We have been meeting demand. Again, we are liaising daily with the Ukrainian Government. As the noble Lord will be aware, we had significant stockpiles, some of which contained weapons that were not in the first flush of youth, but that did not mean that they were not still effective and useful. We have been able to draw on these stockpiles. The pertinent question then is whether we come to a point of replacement. The answer is twofold. Yes, we do, but we have made sure that at no time have we compromised the UK’s ability to defend itself and address its own national security needs, and we have been in regular consultation with industry and signalled that we anticipate approaching it with orders and that they should be getting their houses in order to ensure that they are able to deal with the supply of whatever that request may be.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about our strategy for supporting Ukraine. We all acknowledge that the character of the conflict has changed since it started, many months ago. It has perhaps moved on from being purely defensive to us now seeing Ukraine with an appetite to be offensive in trying to recover territory. Our strategy is that we constantly liaise with the Ukrainian Government, as we do with our military allies and partners, to assess what we can do to support Ukraine in what it thinks it needs at this time in the conflict. It is quite difficult to say with any precision what we might be doing at the end of this month or at the end of November because it depends on the fluidity of the conflict. As for the resolve, the commitment and the determination of the United Kingdom and our friends and allies to support Ukraine, let there be no doubt that it is rock-solid.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about NATO and European unity, which I would say is positive and strong. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, asked particularly about the EU summit, which I will come to. We have had a very good relationship with the EU, which has been cemented by the universal recognition that, when you are confronted with a threat such as Russia’s illegal invasion of a sovereign country, nobody is safe. Everybody understands the mutuality of that threat and the need to stand shoulder to shoulder and agree on how to address that threat and how to support Ukraine in resisting this illegal invasion.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, very articulately encapsulated that the energy crisis is caused by Putin. That is a message that must repeatedly be got out. The problems that we are all confronted by, not just in this country but across the globe, on energy prices, inflation and escalating food prices have been created by Putin.

We are doing everything we can to help to mitigate the effects of that, and that is partly what we are doing to assist Ukraine. President Putin is now finding that his war in Ukraine is a very expensive, distracting and damaging exercise for him and his country. That is partly to do with what we and our allies and partners are doing to support Ukraine, the effect of sanctions and the miscalculation that he made about the reaction to this invasion. He thought that this was some kind of little local incursion that he could make into a country that he took a fancy to, and he had absolutely no realisation of the global impact of his illegal activity. We are doing everything we can to help.

I cannot pre-empt what the new Prime Minister may wish to announce in relation to trying to alleviate the very corrosive impact of these prices on ordinary families in the United Kingdom, but all the indications are that the Prime Minister intends to make an announcement. I anticipate that the Government will come forward with specific plans to provide help.

There was another question about when the grain ships will leave. I do not have specific information about that, other than what is already in the Statement. Again, that is a fluid situation. When the ships can get in and be loaded, they will leave.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked specifically about the integrated review and the cuts to the Army. I repeat what my right honourable friend said in the other place: the integrated review, which we all know is a substantial piece of work, absolutely correctly identified the main threat—it is Russia. It has been confirmed sharply that the integrated review was right in that analysis.

On the cuts to the Army, as the Secretary of State has repeatedly indicated, it is always a difficult question within defence, when you look at the overall capability, to determine what you will do with money if you get it or get more of it. He summed it up very neatly today when he said that, if you get more resource, you need to look at how to make the Armed Forces less vulnerable. There may be a variety of ways to do that.

I would like to echo the final sentiment of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, who said that it is absolutely critical that all of us who are minded to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, whether as political parties of the UK or nation states who are partners and friends, stand firm. The noble Lord is absolutely correct. That must happen, and we must not allow a cigarette paper to filter between us.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, asked about the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia. The inspection has been very recent, and we are awaiting further information. It will then be easier to make an assessment of the situation and what response, if any, should be made.

On the reconstruction of Ukraine, we all wish we had a crystal ball. We do not know what lies ahead, but we know that there is a concerted view that Ukraine will need help with that reconstruction. It is premature to discuss it now, but we will certainly look at it when the time is appropriate.

I am unable to answer whether the United Kingdom has been invited to the EU summit about rebuilding Ukraine—it is a bit wide of my remit. I can certainly make inquiries and write to the noble Lord.

Finally, the noble Lord had a number of questions about refugees. Again, these are outwith my particular ministerial remit, but I have made of note of them. I shall look at Hansard and see if we can provide some response.