Brexit

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Saturday 19th October 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, it has been a privilege to hear so many thoughtful speeches today, and I have—as the noble and learned Lord, Lord Judge, counselled—listened as well as heard. As a former professional dancer, I feel obliged to try to help the noble Lord, Lord Lansley, with his dance analogy, but I fear it may not be possible, without three legs, to do one step forward and two sideways without some element of double-crossing.

In our first take-note debate I gave my version of a speech, echoed by other noble Lords, noting that the UK’s future success, the viability of key business sectors and the livelihoods of the people they employ depended not on the bulky withdrawal agreement but on the series of “best endeavours”, “should” and “aim to” that punctuated the slimmer, non-binding political declaration. Some 10 months later, this pair of documents could well offer an apt political metaphor: the one in the background, despite having no legal status, is the one we need to pay attention to.

In comparing November’s political declaration with today’s, it would be easy to miss the differences. As the Institute for Government’s helpful explainer confirms, much remains the same. Both display the same lack of ambition on services, despite their contribution to the UK economy. Both promise to end freedom of movement, despite its importance to sectors such as health, social care, creative and cultural, and the obvious truth that closing the doors to our one country means shutting down for future generations the freedom to live and work in 27.

Mr Johnson’s deal is, for the most part, Mrs May’s deal. The noble Earl, Lord Kinnoull, from a position of expertise, confirmed that the substantive text is unchanged. It did not take long for social media to post its memes with the rueful observation, “We are all Theresa May now: an idea suggested by a woman is ignored, until it is proposed by a man”. I am aware that this comment may be fully appreciated only by noble Baronesses in your Lordships’ House.

But the differences are there. The aspiration is now for a free trade agreement, not frictionless trade. Gone is the ambition for a shared customs territory and close regulatory alignment to form “a bridge” to the long-term relationship. The intention for dialogue at “parliamentary level” on the direction of the future relationship is replaced with the weasel-wordy “at appropriate level”. Level playing field provisions are downgraded from the legal status of the withdrawal agreement to the non-binding political declaration.

With so much distrust built up over Brexit, it is hardly surprising that there is reluctance to trust areas like labour rights and consumer and environmental standards to a political declaration with no teeth; or to believe the Chancellor when he says that there is,

“no need for a new impact assessment”,

on this deal, because, in his words, November’s is “still out there” and,

“anyone can look it up”.

So, it is fortunate that the research unit, UK in a Changing Europe, has done the work to compare the potential economic impact of this deal with that of Theresa May’s. Under May’s deal, based on the reduction in trade alone, it predicts that income per capita would be 1.75% lower than under the status quo. The equivalent figure for the Johnson deal is 2.5%. Add in the knock-on effect of reduced trade on productivity and the per capita GDP figure reduces further, down 4.9% for May’s deal and 6.4% for Johnson’s. Take into account the negative impact of restricted migration on the economy, and the reduction could be up to 7% over 10 years.

I am aware that those are only predictions, but they are based on standard economic modelling and the best available information, and major industry sectors and trade bodies also believe that this deal is worse for the economy than the last one. So, I ask the Minister, is this a new deal, or is it not? If it is, where is the impact assessment and the time for proper scrutiny?

Today, the decision rightly rests with the other place, and its Members must use their best judgment to decide whether this deal serves the interests of the whole of the UK. I hope that they will not be influenced by the latest of what I have to admit are brilliantly judged slogans from Mr Johnson’s team. This generation cannot sell out the next just because we have had enough. “Get Brexit Done” plays on the understandable fatigue of the public, but it rides on a false promise that it will all be over on 31 October. No: this is where the real work begins, to say nothing of the work involved in reuniting a nation split down the middle.

“Get Brexit Done” may be a neat slogan but, as with its predecessor, “Take Back Control”, the reality is not so simple. As Mario Cuomo memorably said:

“You campaign in poetry; you govern in prose”.

Brexit: Preparations

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Tuesday 8th October 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Callanan]

I am always suspicious when anyone gets up and says, “This is a factual question”. The noble Lord knows very well that it is impossible to put numbers on these issues—it depends on a huge range of factors. If he tells me what the exact interpretation and application of the regulations will be by the French authorities, I may be able to get closer to an answer that he wants. Our job is to ensure that businesses and hauliers are well prepared. That is why we are investing so much in a huge public information campaign. One of the interesting statistics is that more than 80% of hauliers crossing the short straits are not British operators; they are mainly from other European countries. This is one of the reasons why we need to reach out to those countries, to haulage associations, drivers, organisations et cetera, to ensure that those organisations know the requirements and have the appropriate paperwork in place to ensure that there are no delays.

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, page 67 of the report, in the section on services, makes it clear that UK businesses and individuals operating in the EU will need to comply with host state rules, including on business travel, investing in and running companies, getting professional qualifications recognised and the levels of access to market. This may mean different regulations in every domain in which they operate. Can the Minister help me understand how this aligns with the Statement, which says that we will have,

“autonomy over the rules governing our world-leading services sector”?

[Lord Callanan]

The noble Baroness is a doughty defender of the services sector, and rightly so; it makes an invaluable contribution to the UK. The distinction is that we will be able to regulate our own services sector, but the regulations that apply on exports in individual EU and non-EU countries are matters for those countries themselves.

European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill

Baroness Bull Excerpts

2nd reading (Hansard): House of Lords
Thursday 5th September 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Meyer]

Do you want me to stop talking? I think that I have made my point that we all have different opinions. I come from a different side. I just want this country to get together and move on. We can blame David Cameron for having called a referendum, but, for better or worse, the point is that it happened and we have to move forward. That is what I am trying to say. There is a future for this country on its own. We need to look at the rest of the world, where there are a lot of opportunities, and stop looking at the past and seeing the European Union as something that used to be fantastic—it is now changing. As my noble friend just said, when you look at what is happening economically in all those countries, it is not great. We will have more flexibility if we are out. That is my point.

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords—

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard (CB)]

My Lords—

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Bull]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Balfe. We have before us a Bill concerned with avoiding a no-deal Brexit and, like the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leeds, who is not in his place, I have been taking note of a timely and helpful report from the academics at the UK in a Changing Europe research unit about the issues, implications and impacts of leaving the EU without a deal. At this point I declare my interest in King’s College London, as set out in the register.

I support this Bill and will confine my remarks to explaining why I believe that it is so important to avoid no deal. The report I mentioned usefully reminds us that while the Prime Minister’s “no ifs, not buts, no maybes” approach is presented as offering a clean break and allowing us all to just get on with it, it is, in reality, nothing of the sort. As the report says, no deal:

“Is not a neat way of resolving a complex problem”,

but,

“a way of rendering a complex problem infinitely more so”.

No one should delude themselves that no deal will in itself be the end of the story. There is no realistic possibility—and indeed no suggestion from anyone on any side of the debate—that we will not have a future relationship with the block of countries that represents our largest trading partner and our nearest neighbours. No deal will not be the end of the negotiations but the beginning of a new, more complex and likely even more prolonged set of negotiations. And without them taking place under the framework of a deal, do we really think that those negotiations are going to be any easier? In this scenario, any future deal will almost certainly require unanimous agreement from all member states and ratification by their parliaments. These negotiations will all be set against a backdrop of bruised and damaged relationships, both within the UK itself—as we are already seeing—and between the UK and the EU.

Leaving with a deal would mean a transition period, during which trade would continue as now while the two sides negotiated a future relationship. No deal means a cliff edge, with the UK treated by the Union as a third country. The impact on trading goods would be immediate, with new regulatory and customs arrangements coming immediately into force. This would mean disruption to supply chains, impacting crucial sectors such as food, medicines and just-in-time manufacturing. Larger businesses might be able to withstand the storm; smaller companies are unlikely to have the reserves to do so. Trade in services, always the Cinderella of the Brexit story, would be hit particularly badly. If the UK exits without a formal deal, it will no longer be covered by the services agreement of the European Economic Area but will have its trade with the EU governed by the General Agreement on Trade in Services, a treaty under the WTO. GATS provides far less access than the current EEA arrangements and therefore fewer opportunities for the UK services sector.

This disadvantage will be compounded by another challenge: professional qualifications will no longer be automatically recognised in other European countries. Under the EEA, UK qualifications are subject to mutual recognition agreements, so if you are a UK-qualified accountant or architect you can provide services in other EU countries. Under no deal this would immediately cease to be the case. Professional services suppliers would have to apply not just to have their qualifications recognised but for working visas. This sector is the second largest services exporter in the world, with 2018 services exports valued at £283 billion, or 45% of total UK exports; of this, £117 billion-worth were exported to the EU. This is a sector, let us not forget, that provides four in five jobs, up and down the UK.

There is also no clarity on what no deal will mean for freedom of movement from 1 November. I am afraid that recent government pronouncements have not made things any clearer. The noble Lord, Lord Cashman, already referred to the concerns of the 3 million EU 27 citizens currently resident here. Without a deal, what new rules will apply and how are employers, landlords or providers of public services supposed to apply them? The profound sense of insecurity that EU citizens currently feel in this country is no doubt shared by those Britons resident in other European countries, for whom the position is perhaps even more complex and unclear.

A further, little discussed consequence of no deal is the immediate loss of access to EU databases and other forms of co-operation, including the European arrest warrant, the Schengen information system and Europol. In a world where data is key, this will present very real challenges to policing and security operations. I fear that it will provide a welcome window of opportunity to criminals intent on illegal access to and use of data.

Then, of course, there is the island of Ireland. This is almost certainly the greatest and most serious unknown at this point, already discussed in real and compelling detail by other noble Lords today. Many of the worst consequences of no deal—such as severe disruption to road and air transport links—will be averted in the short term because of temporary workarounds that the EU has put in place, but some of these expire as soon as the end of December, just two months into no deal. It is interesting to speculate what will happen to those temporary workarounds at that point, when we could well be engaged in an unedifying dispute over moneys due under a so-called divorce bill.

Whatever happens, we will eventually come through, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Leeds suggested, but we cannot pretend that there will not be significant costs to no deal, socially, culturally, and economically. Research from the academic research unit I mentioned has found that trading with the EU on WTO terms would, after 10 years, reduce the UK’s per capita income by between 3.5% and 8.7%, and it is not the only credible source coming to a similar conclusion.

As we consider the Bill today, I ask that we be under no illusions that no deal will provide closure on this sorry period in our nation’s history. It will be just the beginning of a process that will not be easy but will be time-consuming, politically fraught and damaging to our economy. Let us not forget that the inevitable reductions in public spending that will be the consequence of economic downturn will hit hardest those people who are least able to stand it: the poorest, the most vulnerable and the marginalised in our society. For all these reasons, I support the Bill.

Brexit: Appointment of Joint Committee

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, since last we debated EU withdrawal in this Chamber, “no deal” has changed its meaning. It used to be a negotiating stance, but it has become a test of virility, a metaphor for how tough each candidate in the Conservative leadership race promises to be in the face of any resistance to reopen the withdrawal agreement on the table. I am grateful to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon, for providing this opportunity to remind ourselves what no deal really means, not to the electoral prospects of prime ministerial hopefuls nor to the future of the Conservative Party, but to the people who live, and make a living, in the UK.

In any normal negotiations, no deal assumes maintenance of the status quo but in this scenario it means cutting loose from the frameworks that have defined business as usual for many decades. We have heard in so many powerful speeches today the impact on many crucial areas. I want to speak briefly about the impact on one of the sectors I know best: the creative industries.

First, no deal would end the free movement of talent on which the sector has built its success, without any replacement regime in place. This would leave businesses with no immediate route to recruit—as they do now—EU staff to plug the chronic domestic skills gaps that exist in at least 20 different creative occupations. Anyone offered a contract to work here would have to apply through the tier 2 visa system currently in use for the rest of the world. However, this route is open only for jobs worth at least £30,000 a year and many vital roles in the sector do not command a salary at that level. Some 30% of the creative workforce is freelance, but there is currently no system that allows small creative businesses to recruit vital freelance skills from non-EU countries in a way that matches their operating model—that is to say, on shoestring budgets and a project-by-project basis.

Let us not forget that freedom of movement works in two directions, allowing UK citizens the chance to work in 27 other countries with their professional qualifications recognised and key regulatory issues aligned. No deal would throw reciprocal social security arrangements up in the air, adding new paperwork, costs and risks to working in a country beyond the one in which you have residency.

Secondly, businesses would face new administrative and financial burdens in moving sets, costumes, kit and equipment across borders. Drivers would need international licences, vehicles would require permits and goods would need a carnet. This might sound like just a bit more form-filling, but the Royal Shakespeare Company estimates that the additional expense would increase the cost of taking a show abroad by 10% to 15%. Larger organisations might be able to sustain this but much of the sector is made up of small companies, many of which are reliant on a lucrative European market that pays performance fees at four times the UK rate. A combination of reduced income and increased costs will hit these companies hard.

Thirdly and finally, no deal would mean an immediate end to EU funding, including Creative Europe money, which has contributed nearly £17 million a year to UK cultural organisations and benefits one out of every three artists annually. This is the reality of no deal for the creative industries—a sector that contributes £101.5 billion a year in GVA, provides over 3 million jobs across the creative economy and is responsible for 11% of the UK’s total service exports. All those issues are echoed, and even exacerbated, in the service sector as a whole—a sector that is particularly vulnerable to no deal because of the complex web of “behind the border” rules and regulations that underpin trading across the EU. Services account for 80% of UK GDP and four out of every five jobs across the country. They are the goose that lays the golden eggs, yet in the Brexit story they are treated like Cinderella.

Of course, we would adapt in the long term to whatever changes resulted from a new relationship with the EU. Businesses with large reserves and individuals with significant resources would probably ride out any storm. However, without a transition period, smaller businesses and the people they employ would be at risk, and expert opinion is that in a no-deal scenario the economy as a whole would take a hit, impacting on tax revenues and the resources available to support the most vulnerable in our society.

Frankly, it beggars belief that with everything we know—with all the warnings that the Government themselves have pointed out—we are once again careering towards a cliff edge, as the Tory leadership contest turns no deal into a measure of machismo. The 2016 campaign never mentioned this—quite the opposite, as we have already heard. Both Houses have rejected no deal, and the latest YouGov poll confirms that there is no popular mandate either, with only 28% of the public favouring departure without a deal. Yet the likelihood of no deal increases day by day, as leadership hopefuls dice with stability and security in their efforts to win the votes of the 0.3% of the population who will choose our next Prime Minister.

Therefore, I too support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. It has become abundantly clear, over the last three years, that Brexit splits opinions in ways that cut across conventional party lines. Avoiding no deal seems to be the only thing on which there has been consistent alignment, in both Houses and across political divides. If we start by working together on an issue on which most of us are able to agree, who knows what might be possible? Perhaps the same group might then move on to tackle the really big question: where do we go from here?

Further Discussions with the European Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Wednesday 27th February 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, in my family, before any departure we have a tradition of doing what we call a “last-minute nervous”—an 11th-hour check that in our preparations to leave, nothing has been overlooked or left behind. In thinking about whether to take part today, I found myself doing that same nervous check: asking whether there could be any issue that we have not properly considered in our take-note debates thus far. Over seven days, according to Hansard, noble Lords have collectively contributed some 280,000 words. The noble Lord, Lord Callanan, is surely right when he suggests there can be nothing we have overlooked. But in searching those 280,000 words, I was astonished to find just 80 covering the specific effects of Brexit on women. It is 99 years, almost to the day, since the first woman spoke for the first time in Parliament and yet over seven days of transcripts, the word “women” appears only 13 times. So I rise again, not wishing to test your Lordships’ patience, but duty-bound to put on the record the potential impact of exiting the EU on women in the UK.

Since joining the EU, as noble Lords will know, there have been substantial gains for gender equality and women’s rights in the UK. Equality between men and women was one of the EU’s founding values, with the principle of equal pay included in the 1957 treaty of Rome. Over the past 45 years, women in the UK have won the right to equal pay, including for work of equal value. We have seen progressive reforms related to part-time workers—the majority of whom are women—parental leave and the gender pay gap. There is now uncapped compensation in discrimination claims and increased protection for pregnant women at work. We have not only seen enhanced employment rights for women; protection for women escaping domestic violence has been strengthened, with European protection orders guaranteeing victims similar protection in all EU member states.

It would not be right to claim that all these advances are solely because of our EU membership; nor would it be right to assume that, on leaving the EU, all this would fall away. Indeed, much of the EU’s equality legislation is already incorporated into domestic law by the Equality Act 2010. Nevertheless, the Equality and Human Rights Commission has raised concerns about the effects of Brexit on women. In doing so, it echoed concerns expressed by the House of Commons Women and Equalities Committee in February 2017. Its report concluded that transposing EU law was not enough and that,

“the Government needs to take active steps to embed equality into domestic law and policy”.

In response, the Government said that they,

“share the goal of ensuring there is no erosion of equalities rights and protections at the point of leaving the EU”.

But confidence in that commitment has been undermined by the absence of any references to women in the main body of the withdrawal agreement and by the potential for Henry VIII powers to lead to reductions in protections in future. As the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, noted in this House in March last year,

“the very last thing we should refer to Henry VIII clauses is women’s rights”.—[Official Report, 8/3/18; col. 1227.]

Perhaps the biggest threat to women is dependent on what happens to our economy if—and after—we leave the EU. Any negative impacts of an orderly Brexit, or, in the worst case, of leaving without a deal, will hit women—specifically, the most vulnerable women in our society—hardest. Reductions in public spending have a higher impact on women, as the primary users of public services. Cuts in public sector employment or pay disproportionately affect women because of their greater concentration in this sector. Strains on social care increase pressures on women because they are more likely to care for elderly or disabled family members.

In reviewing the research, it becomes clear that it is not just in the area of hard law that the UK’s equality architecture has been shaped by our relationship with the EU. Equally important is so-called soft law—non-binding measures that serve as tools for promoting gender equality. For example, including gender equality in the evaluation criteria for European research or social funds has created financial incentives for countries to think about gender issues when otherwise they might not have done so. European social funds have played a key role in developing an infrastructure of voluntary organisations providing support to vulnerable women in the UK. Funding streams, such as the Daphne fund, enable research and support aimed at tackling violence against girls and women in the UK. I understand that the Government have committed to honouring this funding until 2020, but it is not clear how these vital services will be supported from this point on.

Membership of the EU has also meant that the UK’s progress on gender equality has been regularly evaluated through the OMC—the open method of co-ordination. The OMC is informed by the systematic collection and analysis of data on, for example, employment and social conditions for women, or underrepresentation of women in political or economic decision-making, or in research and innovation. These international datasets have enabled comparative research on gender issues that provides a valuable evidence base. Of course, this research is EU-funded. Exiting the OMC—if we leave the EU—could mean that the cycle of scrutiny through evaluation, benchmarking and good practice exchange is replaced by a more insular approach to policy design. The challenges to collaborative research in a post-Brexit environment could exacerbate this, with academics and policymakers finding it harder to work across borders and to access shared funding pots.

The Government’s stated commitment to preserving rights and protections for women is, of course, welcome, as were the reassurances of the noble Lord, Lord Henley, in response to questions from the noble Baronesses, Lady Crawley and Lady Gale, in January and March last year. But in the UK’s journey towards gender equality, our membership of the EU has given us something more than just hard and soft laws. Representation at EU level of marginal groups such as women—I find it hard to consider a group that makes up 51% of the country as marginal, but nevertheless—makes them less vulnerable to the ideological preferences of the domestic Government of the day, whatever colour that Government may be. Choosing to pool sovereignty in key areas such as gender equality has enabled the development of initiatives that promote the interests of marginal groups in the national context. I do not see this as giving up control; I see it as providing valuable checks and balances to ensure that certain interests in national policy-making can never be privileged, either consciously or unconsciously, if they have a negative effect on women and their rights.

If nothing else, today I have at least succeeded in adding 1,300 words to the existing 80 on the potential impact of Brexit on women. Your Lordships will note that, throughout, I have not said “will”, I have said “could”. I ask not just the Minister but the formidable women who make up the ministerial team alongside him to play their part in ensuring that “could” is never allowed to become “will”.

Whatever happens next, women’s rights as set out in equality, employment and human rights legislation must be protected. Funding must be made available to maintain vital women’s services, especially for the most vulnerable. The Government must ensure that any economic impact of Brexit does not fall disproportionately on women. This Government and the next must commit to keeping pace with going beyond future EU directives on gender equality. Deal or no deal, leave or remain, we cannot allow ourselves to resile from the steps we have taken over the past 45 years to advance gender equality and enhance the lives of women across the UK.

EU Withdrawal

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Wednesday 13th February 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, in common with many noble Lords, I had decided to abstain from any further EU withdrawal debates feeling that all there is to be said has been said not once but many times. I was also keen to cede the floor to noble Lords better equipped than me, through experience and expertise, to comment on the manifold versions of EU withdrawal currently on the table and, indeed, at this point scattered all over the floor.

However, in reflecting on the contributions of other noble Lords to the debate in this House on 28 January, and in following the ongoing discussions that are the subject of today’s Motion, I am struck by the continued silence of what Sir Ivan Rogers, in his Liverpool University lecture last year, referred to as “the dog that failed to bark”, and so I rise, I hope briefly, to ensure that in this take note debate this House really does take note of the impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on our world-leading services sector and of the absence of any real consideration of the needs of services industries within ongoing discussions.

Services are a UK success story. They have driven three-fifths of the rise in UK exports over the past 20 years, they are responsible for more than 40% of our total exports, they contribute 80% of the UK’s GDP and they account for four in five jobs up and down the country. UK services are exported all over the world, but the largest single destination by far is the EU, which is worth £90 billion annually to the economy.

So why have we heard so little about trade in services over the past two and a half years, never mind over the past two and half weeks? It might be because of the high concentration of services in London and the south-east or because of the predominance of financial companies in the general perception of what constitutes the service sector. With London perceived to have prospered at the expense of the rest of the country, and with the financial sector still held responsible in the public mind for the 2008 crash and the years of austerity that followed, perhaps forefronting services in negotiations did not feel like much of a vote winner.

Whatever the reason, much of the debate on the future economic relationship between the UK and the EU has focused on key “at the border” issues affecting trade in goods, such as customs and tariffs, rather than the “behind the border” issues of domestic rules and regulations that are the potential barriers to free and open trade in services. It is certainly easier to grasp the more straightforward concept of selling a good than it is to understand cross-border services trade, which is by no means all carried out via virtual means. There are five modes of services. Yes, services are provided remotely, but they are also provided in the supplier’s country, such as tourism or studying at a university. They are provided in the consumer’s country through the establishment of permanent offices. They are provided by fly-in, fly-out provisions, and they are provided within the manufacture and supply of goods, which are almost always supported by services, including maintenance contracts, legal, design and technology, and this last mode is not covered by the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services. Of course, most of these services are delivered by people on the ground, which means that service provision is linked inextricably with ease of movement.

This bundling together of services, goods and people finds perhaps its most sublime expression in the cultural and creative industries, particularly in the part of the sector in which I was active, where it is impossible to distinguish between the person and the service they offer. I doubt he would have expected to be quoted in this context, but WB Yeats had it right when he asked:

“How can we know the dancer from the dance?”


In terms of the service that dancers provide, you just cannot.

As was noted earlier, the creative industries are particularly relevant in any discussion about services. They are responsible for almost 10% of UK service exports, they are creating jobs at four times the rate of the wider economy and they contribute £101 billion in gross value added every year, which is more than oil and gas, automotive, aerospace and life sciences combined. This success has been achieved on the back of the freedoms enabled through membership of the EU: the ability to cross borders without visas; to transport instruments, scenery and costumes without tariffs, carnets and border checks; to have professional qualifications recognised and IP protected; and to travel freely, often at ludicrously short notice.

Despite their importance to the economy, the UK’s reputation, tourism, inward investment and employment, the withdrawal agreement is silent on services. As we have often said in this Chamber, it is true that the declaration on the future relationship is, despite its brevity, a far more important document, in the long run, than the agreement itself, but the language is vague and none of it is legally binding, so while it promises “ambitious arrangements”, it is worryingly light on trade in services and on the mobility of people that allows services to be delivered.

It is hard not to conclude, as Sir Ivan Rogers did in his Liverpool University speech, that,

“UK services’ industries needs have been sacrificed to the primary goal of ending free movement”,

on the basis that it is the will of the people. I ask once again: which people? Polls show that public concern about immigration is the lowest it has been for 16 years. The Migration Advisory Committee has noted:

“The UK may find itself in the position of ending free movement just as public concern falls about the migration flows that result from it”.


Even the Sun reported a YouGov poll showing that eight out of 10 leave voters want to welcome the same number of doctors and nurses to the UK after Brexit, with more than half keen to welcome even more. One in five leave voters wanted more social workers, too. It was the high-salaried bankers they wanted turned away. So much for the proposed post-Brexit immigration policy which, as it stands, will facilitate exactly the opposite: access for the higher paid, but nothing beyond a one-year stay for the nurses, care workers and teaching assistants on which our economy and society depend. Once again, just for the record, I say that salary levels are not a proxy for skills.

The CBI warns that for service industries, like so many others, no deal is not an option. It goes on to say that under a no-deal scenario service industries would not be able to rely on WTO rules and that companies in some of the UK’s most successful exporting sectors, including finance, broadcasting and airlines, would be unable, for certain types of services, to trade at all. This will hit not just London and the south-east; the north-east and the West Midlands send about half of their services exports to the EU, which makes them proportionally more exposed to the effects of no deal.

Given the strength of the UK’s services sector, the jobs it provides, the tax revenue it generates and, by extension, the public services it supports up and down the country, can the Minister confirm that appropriate attention will be focused on getting the right deal for the services sector as discussions continue?

I join other noble Lords in expressing my disappointment at yesterday’s Statement. We are told to hold our nerve. I know a thing or two about nerves, but we now find ourselves in a situation not unlike the ballet dancer’s standard anxiety dream: it is 7.29 pm, the overture is playing, the curtain is about to go up and we are all lined up on stage with absolutely no idea of the steps we are supposed to perform. The Prime Minister’s Statement on the ongoing discussions provided no comfort whatever for the services sector or any other that the cliff edge is receding. In fact, it did quite the opposite: her apparent tactic of kicking the can continually down the road in an attempt to ensure the other side blinks first seems to be taking us ever closer to a place where no deal is a horrible inevitability.

This House and the other place have both confirmed their belief that no deal must be taken off the table. With the clock ticking, with no alternative arrangements to the backstop on the horizon, with no sign of EU willingness to reopen a deal our own Prime Minister said was the best we were going to get, with a mountain of statutory instruments and Bills still to be scrutinised and debated and with no parliamentary majority for a deal in sight, it is surely time to admit that there is no possibility that this country will be ready to leave the EU on 29 March. As the noble and learned Lord, Lord Hope, so eloquently pointed out early this afternoon, we now need as a matter of urgency to start the process of requesting an extension to Article 50 while time might just still be on our side.

Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration

Baroness Bull Excerpts

Thursday 10th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bull (CB)]

My Lords, when last we attempted this debate, it seemed to me that there was an elephant in the Chamber. We had the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration, but missing at the time was the White Paper on immigration. I said then that to those sectors of the economy dependent for success on the movement of people and services across borders, this document was every bit as significant as the two on the Order Paper. I still believe that to be true so I make no apology for focusing today on the ways in which this recently arrived White Paper adds to our understanding of a future outside the EU.

Like the political declaration, this White Paper has its own elements TBC, but at least it provides some clarity of intention. It confirms, as anticipated, that the current dual-entry system will be replaced with a single route for all countries. So far, so logical, except that this route will give access only to the skilled and highly skilled, with no parallel flow of low and medium-skilled workers coming, as now, from the EU. With virtual full employment in the UK, many business sectors rely on this supply chain, not least to fill vital but lower-paid roles in health and social care. We know from forecasts commissioned by this Government that a further 725,000 medium and low-skilled roles open up every year, a figure roughly in line with the number of young people annually who turn 18. Is the intention for every one of these young people to occupy these low and medium-skilled roles? If so, so much for the ambitions of the Government’s 2017 strategy to increase social mobility through education.

To address this challenge in the short term, the White Paper proposes a transitional measure: a route that will see employers reliant on a rotating pool of low-paid workers on 12 month visas—workers with no right to settle and no job security. This will mean loss of know-how, discontinuity of service, constant recruitment and retraining and dips in standards, risks so clearly outlined by my noble friend Lady Masham of Ilton earlier. Some of these workers will be responsible for the most vulnerable in our society; they will be care workers, teaching assistants and nurses.

The White Paper also confirms the intention to measure a person’s potential contribution by how much they earn. I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Bonham-Carter, for giving airtime to my mantra on this. All together now, once again:

“Salary levels are not a proxy for skills”.—[Official Report, 5/12/18; col. 1074.]


We are promised a future in which only the brightest and the best are welcome, but in the sector I know best, culture and the creative industries, importing only established stars is not the way to ensure a thriving domestic sector. A vibrant sector depends on talent pipelines built by spotting and nurturing potential, by welcoming the entrepreneurs and the stars of the future—young people earning far less than £30,000.

However, by far the most dispiriting message in the White Paper can be found at paragraph 6.41, where the decision not to open a dedicated route for unskilled labour is described as being,

“consistent with the public’s view … that lower skilled migrant labour may have depressed wages or stifled innovation in our economy”.

That may or may not be the public’s view, but the MAC’s report repeatedly makes clear that it is far from true. At paragraph 7, it says that,

“migrants have no or little impact on the overall employment and unemployment outcomes of the UK-born workforce”.

At paragraph 8 it says that,

“migration is not a major determinate of the wages of UK-born workers”.

On page 62 it says that,

“not only may migrants directly contribute to the levels of innovation they may also enable UK workers to become more innovative, by bringing with them complementary skills and ideas”.

It is deeply disturbing to see this important paper base its policies not on evidence but on perception. Perhaps it is not surprising, given the unswerving determination we have seen from the outset to end freedom of movement on the basis that it is the will of the people. Which people? The Migration Advisory Committee itself notes:

“The UK may find itself in the position of ending free movement just as public concern falls about the migration flows that result from it”.


On Monday, an Ipsos MORI poll backed this up: concerns about immigration are the lowest they have been for 16 years.

It is certainly not the will of the younger generation, for whom freedom of movement is a primary concern. This is not in the sense in which the White Paper refers to it, but in terms of the opportunities and rights that it brings in the areas of human and civil rights, cross-border families, travel, work, education, and trade.

The Ipsos MORI poll lists—in order—the issues of greatest public concern today. After Brexit, they are: the NHS, poverty, crime, housing, the economy and education. Leaving the EU will not solve any of these. As the noble Lord, Lord Horam, pointed out in December, the Brexit vote was a response to problems for which Brexit is not the solution. It will impact disproportionately on those areas that voted leave and it ties up valuable government time that could be focused on those issues. I cannot agree with those noble Lords who see this as a reason just to “get on with it”. We may all be weary, but we have a responsibility to the next generation, whose voices and views are too often absent from this debate. It is their future we are debating, not ours.

I understand concerns that failing to deliver on the 2016 vote might be seen to betray democracy, but the betrayal happened three years ago in a referendum based on corrupt practices and fantastical pledges, made by people with no right to make them and no obligation to deliver. We are now in danger of committing a far greater betrayal, either by signing up to a deal which everyone agrees will leave us worse off, or by exiting the EU without a deal in place.

It is hard not to conclude that pushing the vote down the road—alongside the visible ramping up of no deal preparations—is part of a strategy to ensure that the deal passes in the other place. If the strategy fails, as it seems it will, the ticking clock may leave us only two options. We can apply to extend Article 50 so that the public can choose between what is on offer and what we already enjoy. Or we can revoke Article 50 and get on with addressing the issues of inequality, poverty, health and social care that are the everyday reality for communities up and down the country.