Middle East: Economic Update

Thursday 26th March 2026 Lords Chamber

Statement

23:52

The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Tuesday 24 March.

“Thank you, Mr Speaker, for granting me permission to make this Statement to the House about the Government’s continued response to the war in the Middle East.

Let me start by paying tribute to our Armed Forces; my thoughts and the thoughts of the whole House remain with them and with those whose lives have been disrupted by this conflict.

Since I last addressed the House, the costs of oil and gas have remained high, and last week the Bank of England estimated that inflation could be between 3% and 3.5% in the next few quarters. The full economic impact of the war remains uncertain, but it makes our economic plan even more important: to build prosperity that is secure and resilient and to bear down on the cost of living and protect the public finances, with delivery through our ironclad fiscal rules. Today, I will set out further action that I am taking.

First, on global collaboration, last week the Prime Minister authorised the US to use UK military bases to defend the Strait of Hormuz. It remains the case that the best way to protect families and businesses is rapid de-escalation of this conflict. To strengthen our collective security, I have announced that we will explore a new defence financing and procurement mechanism with the Netherlands, Finland and other EU and NATO partners. I welcome the International Energy Agency’s decision to authorise a co-ordinated release of our collective oil reserves to alleviate the immediate pressure on supply, and the UK has now begun the release of our share of 13.5 million barrels of oil.

Secondly, on our energy security, the last Government’s failure to invest in energy was a failure to protect our country, but through determined action, this Government are taking control of our own energy supply: we are investing in renewables, lifting the ban on onshore wind and streamlining grid connections; we ran the biggest offshore wind auction in European history last year, and we are bringing the next renewables auction forward to this July; and we are driving forward negotiations on the UK’s participation in the EU internal electricity market. We must guarantee that our domestic oil and gas industry can also play a role in our energy system for decades to come, so I can confirm that we are encouraging investment in tiebacks to make the most of our existing production facilities.

We are rewriting the story on nuclear, too. We have construction on Sizewell C, have agreed an extension to Sizewell B, and are due to sign the contracts on the UK’s first small modular reactors in Anglesey, in partnership with Rolls-Royce. I will not tolerate red tape and vested interests holding back our energy security, so our new planning rules will unblock the pipeline of critical infrastructure projects. I can announce today that we will legislate to implement the Fingleton review in the next Session, and I recently wrote to industry and regulators to get them to set out their plans to fast-track that implementation in full.

To the opposition parties, which like to talk big about energy security but then vote against the very infrastructure to build it, let me say this: it is time to put our country first. I can confirm today that we are developing options to back critical energy projects with indemnities if their planning consent is challenged, so that we do not waste a single moment in protecting our energy security, because energy security is national security.

Thirdly, on households and businesses, I know that when prices rise and incomes are squeezed, people look to the Government and ask, ‘What are you doing to help?’ That is why, since the election, we have delivered and funded 30 hours of free childcare to working parents, with wages rising faster than prices for every month that I have been the Chancellor and free breakfast clubs being rolled out at primary schools. From next week, this is what will see: the two-child limit—gone; day one sick pay—in; another rise in the national living wage; prescription charges—frozen; train fares—frozen; fuel duty—frozen; and the state pension increasing by £575. For businesses, there is £4.3 billion in business rates support; the regulation action plan, which will cut admin costs; and the supercharger discount, which will be followed next year by the British industrial competitiveness scheme to take money off business energy bills. But I know that there is more to do.

On trade, I can confirm to the House that we are aiming to conclude negotiations with the EU this year on the sanitary and phytosanitary agreement, which will directly impact food prices in our shops. I have also asked officials to look at where targeted reductions to agri-food tariffs can help bring down food prices, balancing this against the implications for domestic producers and food security. Later this week, I will be holding meetings with supermarkets and banks to discuss how they can further support their customers.

We have a world-class competition and consumer protection regime. Since my last Statement, the Competition and Markets Authority has stepped up its statutory monitoring of fuel prices, and I will update on fuel pricing within the next month. The CMA is working with Government to monitor the cost of household essentials for both price rises and disruption and has launched a market study into heating oil. Today, I can announce that we are going further to make sure that the Competition and Markets Authority has the powers it needs—powers that were denied to it by the previous Government—to detect and crack down on price gouging, bringing in a new anti-profiteering framework and considering time-limited, targeted powers for the CMA and other regulators. This week, the Business Secretary and I will convene the regulators’ council to discuss its work to protect consumers, because—let me say it again—this Government will not tolerate any company exploiting this crisis at consumers’ expense.

Finally, I want to update the House on how I am preparing for this conflict as it goes on. I know that families and businesses are worried about the impact of rising prices. I have said that we will be responsive to a changing world and responsible in the national interest, and today I want to set out in more detail what that means.

First, we will be responsive. We do not yet know what the full impact of this conflict will be, so we must be agile in responding appropriately at each moment. We extended the 5p fuel duty cut and have pushed out the cheaper fuel finder, empowering people to avoid rip-off prices, and chasing down the last few filling stations to reach 100% compliance. When wholesale kerosene prices more than doubled overnight, we stepped in within a matter of days with £53 million of support for those who needed it most. From next week, households will benefit from £150 off their energy bills thanks to the action that I took in my Budget, with the price cap giving households certainty on their bills until July, ahead of the winter months, when people use 78% of their gas.

Secondly, we will be responsible. The spring forecast showed that the Government have the right economic plan, restoring stability to our country’s finances and family finances. I will not put that stability at risk. As we respond to this crisis, we must learn from the mistakes of the past. The previous Government pushed up borrowing, interest rates, inflation and mortgage costs with an unfunded, untargeted package of support under Liz Truss. That gave the most support to the wealthiest households: between 2022 and 2024 under the last Government, households in the top income decile received an average of £1,350 of direct energy bill support. That left us with high levels of national debt—a cheque written then for a bill that is still being paid today. I can confirm to the House that contingency planning is taking place for every eventuality, so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most, acting within our ironclad fiscal rules to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.

This is not a war that we started, nor is it a war that we joined—notwithstanding the advice of the opposition parties—but it is a war that will have an impact on our country. The challenges may be significant, but I promise to do what is right and fair, being responsive in a changing world and responsible in the national interest. I commend this Statement to the House”.

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, for the third time in as many weeks, the Chancellor came before the other place on Tuesday and once again delivered a Statement remarkable only for its lack of substance.

I welcome the confirmation respecting nuclear power, including the implementation of the Fingleton review, which should help to accelerate construction. The references to relations with the EU are less convincing. What price will we be expected to pay for these supposed benefits? The Government’s history of giving in unnecessarily to the EU does not give confidence. We are also suspicious of claims about the need for new powers regarding alleged price-gouging. This smacks of playing to a not very well-informed gallery, but what exactly do the Government intend here?

The Chancellor has praised countries such as Norway and Canada for increasing oil and gas production and for playing their part in securing energy supplies during a time of conflict. Yet here at home the Government refuse to do the same. The Energy Secretary continues to block increased production in the North Sea, so the Government applaud others for strengthening their energy security while wilfully weakening our own. That is pure masochism.

We could scarcely be entering this crisis in a weaker position. We face the highest industrial energy costs in the developed world, with consumer prices not far behind. Just today, the OECD has said that the war in the Middle East will hit UK growth hardest of all, with inflation set to accelerate. The Government speak of reducing dependence on energy imports, yet their own actions are driving us in precisely the opposite direction. That is a self-inflicted vulnerability.

This is a dangerous position to be in. I gently say to the Minister that the public will not thank the Government for ideological gestures; they will expect practical action to secure our energy future. It ought not to be beyond the wit of government to expand green energy supplies while also sustaining supply through oil and gas—which we will simply import more of if we do not produce it at home.

I will also briefly mention the defence investment plan. It was very unedifying to see the Prime Minister discomforted when he was asked about it at the most recent Liaison Committee meeting. On Tuesday, the Defence Select Committee heard from industry leaders that without the defence investment plan—which is now well overdue—some defence manufacturers are going bust, while others have been left in “paralysis” and “bleeding cash”. The plan was originally expected last autumn, but it has been repeatedly postponed, despite repeated warnings that our Armed Forces face a £28 billion funding gap. When will we see the plan?

The Chancellor said that her response to the crisis in the Middle East would be “responsive” and “responsible”. What on earth is responsible about this: a refusal to agree a defence funding plan when the MoD faces a £28 billion black hole, British defence firms going under—and all at a moment of acute global instability, when our sovereign territory has been attacked and our citizens are being threatened at home?

Our economic and defence situation is perilous. Gilt yields are at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Inflation and employment are disturbingly high. Our defences are in a mess. Taxes, borrowing and spending are at record levels and interest rates are going the wrong way. No wonder a respected commentator said this week that he had never been so concerned that the person nominally in charge of the economy—the Chancellor—was manifestly out of their depth. We need better than this.

[Baroness Kramer (LD)]

My Lords, if this war with Iran continues, and especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed as we approach autumn, the global economy will be in serious trouble and the crisis will impact severely—directly on energy prices and, more broadly, on the cost of living. There was far too little in the Chancellor’s speech to give ordinary folk, never mind the markets, real reassurance. People are not naive. Simply to repeat the steps that the Government planned for the economy anyway in the pre-Iran war world is not sufficient.

The Chancellor indicated that any support beyond changes that are already in the system would be targeted at those who are most in need. What does that mean? Is it limited to the 6 million people who claim welfare or pension credit? Is it correct that the Treasury lacks the capacity to identify and assist those who do not qualify for those benefits but are still very low earners? What should the earnings threshold be for support? Will the Chancellor act immediately to, at the very least, zero-rate VAT on heating oil and liquefied petroleum gas? Will she introduce a proper price-cap mechanism for off-grid fuels? Will the Government also reverse their senseless cuts to home insulation programmes, which will be important to a wide range of people?

In her speech, the Chancellor failed to recognise the dire position of small businesses. Inflation in January pre-war was at 3%. We have found today that UK business activity is growing at its slowest pace since September, with a huge jump in manufacturing input prices. At such a time, tax, NICs and other blows from the Budget will fall on small businesses in April—a few days away. This Government seem cavalier about loading small businesses with additional costs, even though they are the backbone of our economy and jobs, and sustain our local communities.

The Government know that small businesses face a broken energy market that leaves most of them paying inflated energy prices. Will they now instruct the Competition and Markets Authority to investigate suppliers that are blocking small business access to the best energy deals? Will they now change the business rate system so that small businesses can improve their energy efficiency without facing business rate penalties? Will they adopt the idea of an energy security bank to provide low-cost loans for households and small businesses to invest in energy efficiency?

When the country is anxious, it needs a speech from the Chancellor that recognises and responds to the changed reality. Will someone from the Government please give that speech before anxiety becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer, for their comments and their questions. As it is the last day before Recess, I wish both noble Baronesses a very happy Easter in advance.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, began her comments by welcoming what we are doing on nuclear, and I am grateful for her support on that and for her support as we implement the Fingleton review. As she knows, we have already begun to rewrite the story on nuclear for this country: we have begun construction at Sizewell C, we have agreed an extension to Sizewell B and we are due to sign the contracts on the UK’s first small modular reactor in Anglesey in partnership with Rolls-Royce. The Chancellor has also confirmed that we will legislate to implement the Fingleton review on nuclear and wider infrastructure in the next Session and has also written to industry and to regulators to get them to set out their plans to fast-track its implementation.

I was disappointed to see the noble Baroness indulge in some anti-EU rhetoric, which I know she does not actually believe. I think it makes absolute sense at this time of global instability that we deepen our economic relationship with our closest partners. It is clear that that is where maximum growth will come from for this country.

The noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer, spoke about the Competition and Markets Authority. It has stepped up its statutory monitoring of fuel prices and will publicly update on fuel pricing later this month. It is also working with Government to monitor the cost of household essentials, including groceries, for price rises and disruption. It has launched a market study into heating oil on top of its existing work to identify and tackle breaches of consumer law in the heating oil market. The Chancellor also announced this week that we are going further to make sure it has the bite it needs to detect and crack down on price gouging, bringing in a new anti-profiteering framework and considering time-limited targeted powers for the CMA and other regulators as needed. Yesterday, the Chancellor and the Business Secretary both met and convened the regulators’ council to discuss its work to protect consumers and small businesses, as the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, mentioned.

On oil and gas, I agree with what the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, said. We will ensure the North Sea oil and gas plays an important role in our economy for years to come. Last week, the Chancellor met with the North Sea industry leaders to discuss their role in jobs, investment, growth and energy supply. The noble Baroness also mentioned energy security. She did not mention the fact that the last Government’s failure to invest in energy was a failure to protect our country. But, through determined long-term action, this Government are taking control of our own energy supply. We are investing in renewables, lifting the ban on onshore wind, streamlining grid connections, bringing the next renewables auction forward to this July and driving forward negotiations on the UK’s participation in the EU internal electricity market. We also ran the biggest ever floating offshore wind auction last year.

As I mentioned already, the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, welcomed nuclear, and we must guarantee that our domestic oil and gas industry can play a crucial role as well for years to come. So we are investing in tie-backs to make the most of existing production facilities. The Chancellor has also announced that she has instructed officials to develop plans to back critical energy projects with indemnities if their planning consent is challenged in the courts, so that we can build the infrastructure that we need.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, mentioned the OECD projections out this morning. As she knows, the war in the Middle East is not one that we started, nor is it a war that we have joined, but it is a war that will have an impact on our country. The OECD’s projections are highly sensitive to the duration of the shock and reflect the impact of higher energy prices, which the UK, as she knows, is more susceptible to. But, in an uncertain world, we have the right economic plan. The decisions we have taken have put us in a better position to protect the country’s finances and family finances from global economic instability.

Both noble Baronesses touched on the economic situation that we find ourselves in. The full economic impact of the conflict remains uncertain, but the spring forecast showed that the Government have the right economic plan, that we enter this period of global uncertainty with the fundamentals of our economy strong and that we are more prepared for a more volatile world. We have cut inflation, which now stands at 3%—a lower base than at the outset of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. We have prioritised growth to drive up living standards. The OBR forecast before this conflict showed that GDP per head was set to grow more than was expected at the Budget, with growth of 5.6% over the course of this Parliament. We have stabilised the public finances, having already reduced the deficit by £20 billion this year from 5.2% to 4.3% of GDP—its lowest level for six years and the fastest reduction in the G7. Of course, these forecasts predate the current conflict in the Middle East, but Britain today is in a stronger position to withstand whatever uncertainty comes our way.

The noble Baroness, Lady Noble-Rolfe, spoke about defence. We are delivering the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. The Chancellor has approved access to the Ministry of Defence to use the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities to the Middle East, meaning that the net additional cost of these operations will be funded by the Treasury. The defence investment plan will be published in due course. We are investing £270 billion over this Parliament, after years of our Armed Forces being neglected under the previous Government. We will increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP from 2027, and we are increasing spending on defence by £5 billion in this year alone.

Finally, both noble Baronesses spoke about energy bills. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked me what “responsible” means. It means that, as we respond to this crisis, we should learn from the mistakes of the past. The previous Government pushed up borrowing, interest rates, inflation and mortgage costs with an unfunded, untargeted package of support under Liz Truss that gave the most support to the wealthiest households. Between 2022 and 2024, under the last Government, households in the top income decile received an average of £1,350 of direct energy bill support. That left us with high levels of national debt—a cheque written then for a bill that is still being paid today. Contingency planning is taking place for every eventuality so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most, acting within our iron-clad fiscal rules to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.

[The Deputy Speaker (Viscount Colville of Culross) (CB)]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours, is taking part remotely. I invite the noble Lord to speak.

12:07

[Lord Campbell-Savours (Lab) [V]]

My Lords, on the background to this strategy and the shock referred to by the Minister, as post-conflict Iran at some stage moves from regional threat into a period of post-conflict reconstruction, do we intend to stand by and watch as Israel takes advantage of the situation by accelerating its programme of land annexation, thereby further promoting regional insecurity and international tension? These conditions challenge the very recovery projects and programmes we are funding, which were identified in the Statement. We all support Israel in its hour of need, but should we not be demanding in response and end to the settlement expansion, as it challenges the stability we all want? It will destabilise recovery.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am pleased to say that this is a Statement about the economic situation, and I do not think anyone would ever put me in charge of diplomacy. I am not going to stray into matters that are much more properly a subject for my colleagues in the Foreign Office, so I shall leave it there.

[Lord Fuller (Con)]

My Lords, I am a 40-year veteran of the fertiliser industry, and two weeks ago I raised for the first time the prospect of shortages of ammonia causing a fertiliser-led food security shock in this country. Last week, I highlighted the effects of the Iran war on our foundational chemical industries based on soda ash, aniline, vinyl, chlorine, ethylene and others. This morning, the Financial Times’ leading article echoes my concerns, and elsewhere there are reports that the EU is backpedalling fast on new carbon taxes and reviewing the emissions trading system. When are the Government going to announce a delay to the counterproductive food chain taxes that will turn an inflation disaster into a cost-of-living catastrophe by driving up the cost of beer, bread, biscuits, milk and cheese to new heights in short order?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question. I know he has a great deal of expertise in the specific sectors that he mentioned. Of course, the Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade are constantly monitoring the impact of this crisis on those sectors and we will take action if necessary. It is not currently our intention to take the specific measures that he mentioned but, as I say, we will be reviewing and monitoring those sectors very closely.

[The Lord Bishop of Norwich]

My Lords, I welcome this Statement and join the Chancellor speaking in the other place in paying tribute to our Armed Forces. In particular, I welcome support for those families and households hardest hit; however, I share the concern of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, for small businesses, and extend that with a question around what we are doing to support the charitable sector: for example, from my recent experience, in the transport costs associated with food banks, in heating warm hubs and so on. We have a responsibility to care for those who care for others, and I ask what the Government are doing to support that work.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the right reverend Prelate for his question and I agree with him and the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, on the importance of small businesses to our economy. As the Chancellor said, we do not yet know what the full impact of this conflict will be, so we must be agile in responding appropriately at each moment. It remains the case that the best way to protect families and businesses, large and small, and charities, which the right reverend Prelate mentioned, is by the rapid de-escalation of this conflict.

He mentioned transport costs and we have already taken action: we have extended the fuel duty cut of 5p and have pushed out the cheaper fuel finder, empowering people to avoid rip-off prices. We are chasing down the last few filling stations, so that we can reach 100% compliance with that. He will also know that, when wholesale kerosene prices more than doubled overnight, we stepped in within a matter of days with £53 million of support for those who needed it most. From next week, households will benefit from £150 off their energy bills, thanks to the action that we took in the Budget. Also, the price cap is giving households certainty on their bills until July, ahead of the winter months when people use 78% of their gas.

[Lord Redwood (Con)]

My Lords, the Government say that they will directly reduce food bills by joining the EU SPS. Can the Minister give us a forecast of how much cheaper food is going to be? It certainly never worked when we were in the EU and it is a very complicated and expensive scheme.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

No, but I am certain that it will lead to lower food prices, just as I am certain that the Brexit that the noble Lord championed has led to all manner of difficulties for consumers, households and businesses. I am sorry that he is still unable to concede that very important point. As I have said before, at a time of global instability, getting closer to and building a deeper economic relationship with our closest partners is in our national, security and economic interest.

[Lord Livingston of Parkhead (Non-Afl)]

My Lords, in coming back to the comment on oil and gas made by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, the growth of green energy and the growth of oil and gas are often described as somehow at odds with each other. It is quite clear that we need both for our energy security. We should grow our green energy while oil and gas remain transitional fuels. Therefore, as Norway is doing, the UK should grow its energy and gas supplies so that we can support our tax base and improve our energy security. It may not affect prices, but it is an important role that the UK can play not just for itself but for other countries, and it is not at odds with the energy transformation.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I agree with every word that the noble Lord said. We will ensure that North Sea oil and gas play an important role in our economy for years to come. Last week, the Chancellor met with North Sea industry leaders to discuss their role in jobs, investment, growth and energy supply. As the noble Lord and I have said, and I agree with him, we are investing in renewables at the same time. We are lifting the ban on onshore wind and streamlining grid connections. We ran the biggest ever floating offshore wind auction last year and have brought forward the next renewables auction to this July, and we are driving forward negotiations on the UK’s participation in the EU internal electricity market.

[Lord Eatwell (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords—

[Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)]

My Lords—

[Lord in Waiting/Government Whip (Lord Lemos) (Lab)]

We will take Labour next.

[Lord Eatwell (Lab)]

My Lords, could the Minister confirm the number in the OBR report which accompanied the Spring Statement that public sector real investment will increase by 12% this year? Could he explain to what degree that 12% is repairing the damage done by the previous Administration and increasing productivity for the future?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to my noble friend for bringing this to the House’s attention. I absolutely agree with what he said and am happy to confirm the figure that he set out. As he knows and we all know, investment was a particular failure of the previous Government over the last 14 years. When we won the election, private sector investment was the lowest in the G7. Public sector investment was no better and was set to fall again, from 2.5% to 1.7% of GDP. We have increased capital investment by £120 billion over this Parliament, ruling out a return to the austerity of the past. As my noble friend said, that is incredibly important for increasing growth and productivity in the economy.

The OBR has estimated that the eventual growth impact of this increase in capital investment will add 1.4% to GDP. Cutting this now and returning to austerity would be the worst thing that we could do for growth and the very definition of short-termism, yet that is precisely what previous Chancellors with previous fiscal rules have done. In the years following the financial crisis, austerity took demand out of the economy when it was most needed, undermining investment in critical infrastructure, weakening productivity and choking off growth. We will not repeat the mistakes of the past.

[Earl Russell (LD)]

My Lords, the Climate Change Committee was clear last week that the cost of another oil price crisis would be greater than the cost of reaching net zero by 2050, so these Benches fully support the need to roll out renewables at a faster rate. However, we continue to have high energy bills and there is a need to decouple gas, so I ask the Minister what further action the Government are considering in this space, so that we can bring down energy bills.

The Minister spoke about the need to target support so that it reaches the most vulnerable. I briefly want to ask whether he agrees that there is a need for the Government to do a greater piece of work on data, so that they can identify those people who are in most need of support with energy bills.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Earl for his question and his consistent support for the action we are taking on renewables. He is absolutely right that it is important that the Government enable the country to take control of its own energy supply. As he says and I have said, we are continuing to invest in renewables by lifting the ban on onshore wind and running the biggest ever floating offshore wind auction last year.

On household energy bills, I have said that contingency planning is taking place for every eventuality. I agree with what he says about data, and of course that work is ongoing. It is very important that we keep costs down for everyone, while providing support for those who need it most and acting within our fiscal rules to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.

[Lord Bridges of Headley (Con)]

My Lords, I hope I am not going to test the noble Lord’s legendary diplomatic skills in answering this question but, last year, the Prime Minister said that “security and defence” were

“not one priority amongst many others but the central organising principle of government. The first thought in the morning, the last at night, the pillar on which everything else stands or falls”.

In light of the Statement that the Chancellor delivered the other day, could the noble Lord confirm that that statement from the Prime Minister is still the case and that defence is the overall organising principle of government? Can he therefore explain when we will see a rapid rise in defence spending and why current forecasts show a welfare spending increase way above that of defence?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question. He knows that the previous Government increased welfare spending by £88 billion in their last five years, which is quite a legacy for us to have inherited. He also knows that we are delivering the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. As I have said already, the Chancellor has approved access for the Ministry of Defence to use the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities in the Middle East.

He asked me how we will increase defence spending. We are investing £270 billion over this Parliament, after years of our Armed Forces being neglected under the previous Government. We will increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP from 2027 and we are increasing spending on defence by £5 billion in this year alone. Our ambition is to reach 3% in the next Parliament, when fiscal and economic conditions allow. We are not going to put an arbitrary date on that percentage until we know exactly where the money is coming from.

I should also say that, this week, the Chancellor announced a new defence procurement mechanism. A core group of NATO allies—Finland, the Netherlands, the UK and other partners—have announced that they are exploring setting up a new mechanism for financing by 2027. The aim is to aggregate demand to drive joint procurement, accelerate defence investment and increase the availability of critical capabilities.

[Baroness Primarolo (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful for my noble friend the Minister’s Statement, for the steps the Government are taking, and that they will keep under review the impact on families and businesses, particularly small businesses. I return to the question of energy security. Is my noble friend in a position to give us more details on the work being done on the grid infrastructure to ensure its efficient use, speedily bringing down energy prices as we shift to more renewable sources? Will the Government consider returning to their considerations on zonal pricing as a way of bringing energy bills down?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to my noble friend for her question on energy security. As she rightly says, energy security for this country is about making the best use of all the resources at our disposal. It is why we are investing more in nuclear, as the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, said at the outset: we are investing in the construction at Sizewell C and have agreed an extension to Sizewell B, and we are due to sign the contracts on the UK’s first small modular reactor in Anglesey in partnership with Rolls-Royce SMR. It is why we must, as several noble Lords have said already, make the most of our oil and gas reserves—we will ensure that North Sea oil and gas plays an important role in our economy for years to come—and why we are meeting with industry leaders to discuss their role in jobs, investment, growth and energy supply. It is, of course, why—again, as several noble Lords have said—we must make the most of our transition towards renewables and why we should invest heavily in those, as we are doing. We are taking action, as my noble friend says, to streamline grid connections, and that work goes on. We are undertaking a series of very important initiatives in that respect. On zonal pricing, as I understand it, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has said that that is not the direction that it intends to go in.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, will the Minister tell us whether the Treasury has made any estimates of how much oil, in value, Iran needs to export before it drops below a way of maintaining any form of international economic viability? Has the Treasury estimated how Iran will cover its shortfall in foodstuffs and such materials that are, and have always been, needed by Iran beyond those that it grows itself?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

Those are both very interesting questions. I cannot say that I am aware of estimates on either of those—they certainly have not crossed my desk—but I am more than happy to look into them for the noble Lord. If I find anything, I shall write to him.

[Lord Lancaster of Kimbolton (Con)]

My Lord, I declare my interest as director of the Army Reserve. I listened carefully to the Minister’s Statement about the increase in defence spending, which is, of course, most welcome. Can the Minister perhaps then confirm to me that, next year, the Ministry of Defence will not be required to make significant in-year savings?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

As I think I have said clearly, the Chancellor has approved access for the Ministry of Defence to use the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities in the Middle East, meaning that the net additional costs of these operations will be funded by the Treasury.

[Lord Tyrie (Non-Afl)]

My Lords, as I understand it, the Government’s commitment on defence spending is to increase it from the 2.3% of GDP that it inherited to 2.6% of GDP, which the Minister has reiterated now. In the 1930s, in the five-year period after 1933, defence spending in this country increased from about 2.3% to 6.8%, which is a trebling. Do the Minister and the Government appreciate that, to deal with the scale of the threats with which we are now faced, we need to take dramatic action on defence—to increase it at considerable pace, far faster than the 0.3% to which the Government are committed at present?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I think I have set out very clearly the pace at which we are increasing and will increase defence spending. From 2027, we will increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP, and we are increasing spending on defence by £5 billion in this year alone. Our ambition is to reach 3% in the next Parliament, when fiscal and economic conditions allow.

[Viscount Trenchard (Con)]

My Lords, following on from the noble Baroness’s question about grid capacity and upgrading the grid, does the Minister not agree that the more small nuclear we can introduce instead of intermittent renewable sources—such as onshore and offshore wind—the better, because it is firm baseload power? Also, it reduces the need to upgrade the grid because, for example, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors—50-megawatt reactors—can be placed over the fence, alongside data centres or industrial clusters. Our Japanese friends have almost given up on us and are now considering working with different partners on commercialising their high-temperature gas-cooled reactor technology, which was originally a British invention. When will the Government confirm their commitment to early deployment of this very effective and useful technology?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am grateful to the noble Viscount, who clearly has a great deal of expertise in this matter. I agree with everything he said, certainly in the first part of his question. SMRs and AMRs being deployed in the UK will form an incredibly important part of our energy mix. We have set out and published a framework so that we can see more private sector investment in exactly those technologies. As he says, AMRs in particular can provide very high heat to decarbonise a lot of our industry, which is incredibly important. They do not need to connect to the grid, so they do not use up grid connections. That is exactly the kind of technology that we would like to see deployed more. As I said, we have published a framework so that we can see more private investment in exactly those technologies.

[Lord Leigh of Hurley (Con)]

My Lords, while the Minister is not transferring to the Diplomatic Service—we would miss him greatly—there does seem to be a sense of denial in the question by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, and the Minister’s answer. GDP is now expected to expand by just 0.7% this year, according to the OECD interim economic outlook, which he will know was published today. That is down by 0.5 percentage points from the organisation’s prior prediction of 1.2%. This would put the UK second last in the G7 growth table and represents the largest downgrade in growth projections for any G20 economy. Rather than denial, we need to face reality. I am particularly concerned that, in the debate on this matter in the other place earlier this week, the Chancellor kept referring to the fact that borrowing will fall. Does the Minister think she really understands the difference between deficit and debt?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

Yes, I am absolutely certain that she understands the difference between those two things. As I have said already, the war in the Middle East is not one that we started nor one we have joined, but it will have an impact on our country. The OECD’s projections are highly sensitive to the duration of the shock and reflect the impact of higher energy prices, to which the noble Lord knows we are more exposed than many other countries. But I am absolutely certain that, in an uncertain world, we have the right economic plan. The decisions we have taken have put us in a better position to protect the country’s finances and family finances from global instability.