The Politics of Polling (Liaison Committee Report)
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The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (Lord Parkinson of Whitley Bay) (Con)
My Lords, it is a pleasure to respond to this debate initiated by the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey. We are indeed pleased to see him hale and hearty and back in your Lordships’ House. He has devoted admirable time and effort to an issue which, as the noble Lord, Lord Bassam, said, plays an important role in the functioning of our democracy, even as headlines about the failures of pollsters in recent electoral events have begun to fade in the memory somewhat.
The noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, brings a wealth of experience to this debate as an advisor in government, a former member of the advisory committee of a pollster and, as he mentioned in his opening speech, a journalist wrestling with competing priorities in the reporting of polls for the Sunday Times and other organs. Unlike him, I never place bets on electoral events, partly out of superstition and partly because I do not think I could deal with the additional emotional turbulence that would ensue.
I begin by reiterating the Government’s position that we continue to support the independent self-regulation of polling by the British Polling Council. As such, I will, as noble Lords anticipated, tread lightly in offering any opinion on the nature of the changes that it and the Market Research Society have made in response to the 2018 recommendations of your Lordships’ Political Polling and Digital Media Committee. Similarly, I do not intend to opine in detail on the progress which those organisations have made, in partnership with Impress and the National Council for the Training of Journalists, in providing resources for journalists on the accurate reporting of opinion polls. The Government are committed to a free and independent press and do not intervene in what the press can and cannot publish.
Instead, I will limit myself to some broader observations about the operation of political opinion polls in our democracy and on the impact of the work of the 2018 committee on this issue. With regard to recent failures in political polling in the United Kingdom, a measure of uncertainty in the prediction of elections and referenda is perhaps welcome. The noble Lords, Lord Lipsey and Lord Rennard, mentioned the infamous failure of pollsters in the United States of America to anticipate Harry Truman’s victory over Thomas Dewey in 1948. In response to that, the American essayist EB White wrote:
“The total collapse of the public opinion polls shows that this country is in good health. A country that developed an airtight system of finding out in advance what was in people’s minds would be uninhabitable.”
I think we can agree with that wisdom.
However, as my noble friend Lord Hayward said, the polling industry’s prosperity is built on trust. Inaccurate, poor-quality or dishonest polling undermines public trust in the organisations which produce polls. I shall refrain from mentioning how the inaccurate reporting of polls in LibDem Focus leaflets has clouded my judgment about that organisation and the private companies that do them. While this may make the financial and reputational repercussions an effective deterrent to poor practice, I recognise also the key democratic role that polls play in informing the debate leading up to elections and referenda and thus the heightened importance of accuracy.
On that basis, the Political Polling and Digital Media Committee’s inquiry in 2018 was timely. The Liaison Committee’s follow-up report demonstrates that it was also constructive. It is a testament to the forensic attention that your Lordships’ committee paid to this subject that, in learning from mistakes made since 2015, the polling industry has since adopted many of the committee’s recommendations, and I commend the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, and the other members of your Lordships’ committee for their part in that.
I turn briefly to some of the recommendations directed at government in the committee’s 2018 report. Although the follow up report does not revisit those recommendations, it may be instructive to summarise some of the Government’s more recent work here. The committee recommended that the Government act to help ensure that people of all ages have the critical digital literacy skills to enable them to assess and analyse the information that they read online. In July last year, the Government published the Online Media Literacy Strategy, setting out our vision for improving the national media literacy landscape. We have since delivered a range of initiatives designed to tackle the challenges laid out in the strategy. We recently published our second-year action plan, announcing a significant increase in resources to continue increasing the inclusivity and impact of media literacy providers.
The committee also supported calls for online campaigning material to be required to include an imprint stating who has published it, as is and has long been the case for printed material. Following Royal Assent last month, the Elections Act delivered this recommendation by introducing a new digital imprint regime. This will go much further than the print imprint regime, increasing transparency and empowering voters to make informed decisions about the material that they see online. It will be one of the most comprehensive digital imprint regimes operating in the world today, applying all year round across the United Kingdom, regardless of whence in the world content is promoted.
More broadly, the committee raised concerns about the problems posed to democracy by the rise of digital and social media, and recommended that the UK Government engage with others to discuss international approaches to tackling some of these problems. In July last year, the Government published our plan for digital regulation, which sets out our overall vision for governing digital technologies to drive prosperity, while minimising harms to the economy, security and society. One of its key pillars is promoting a flourishing democratic society, and we are taking action to support this through the measures that I described earlier: the Online Safety Bill, which will have strong protections for content of democratic importance and journalistic content; our data protection regime, which will protect people’s data rights and build trust; and a broad range of measures to support the freedom and sustainability of the press. As the noble Lord, Lord Bassam of Brighton, said, the Bills that we will debate in this Session touch on all of these areas and more.
Through the plan, the Government committed to building in international considerations from the very start of the policy-making process and ensuring that we engage constructively on digital regulation issues on the international stage. Last year, for example, at President Biden’s multiparty Summit for Democracy, the UK committed to sharing best practice with like-minded partners on approaches to countering disinformation, both bilaterally and multilaterally. The UK will build on its international and domestic work programmes throughout the summit’s “year of action” to promote our vision for UK democracy: a system that is modern, secure, inclusive, transparent and fair.
As noble Lords noted, political polling plays a crucial role in shaping the narrative of election campaigns. I certainly do remember the example of the 2017 general election. I was a candidate in the 2010 general election, at the height of “Cleggmania”, after the debates that the noble Lord, Lord Rennard, reminded us of. I was standing in Newcastle upon Tyne North, a part of the country that has a very high number of postal votes because of the old postal vote experiments conducted by the Labour Government in 2004. It was very striking to me as a candidate, knocking up on polling day, to see how people had cast their votes because of the televised debates and the reporting of the opinion polls. Even two weeks later, they may in some cases have begun to change their minds—alas, not in my direction in many of the cases.
All of us have an interest in the fair and robust design, execution and reporting of polls which take place, particularly during electoral events, so we should all be reassured by the recent advances made by the industry as highlighted in this report. This is particularly the case when these advances are considered alongside the action which the Government are taking to protect and enhance the broader environment within which political polling operates, and to make our democracy more resilient.
With renewed thanks to the noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, and to all noble Lords who have spoken in today’s debate, we are grateful for his work in this important area.