Ian Blackford
I will not.
We believe that that is the only adequate and prudent response to this unprecedented health crisis. As part of the Budget package, we also need to recognise the deep worry that people are experiencing about the impact of its consequences on their incomes, employment, rights and benefits. Just as our health response must be led by the best scientific advice, our economic response must be guided by the need for an appropriate fiscal stimulus that ensures that the economy is not tipped into recession. The employed and the self-employed need to be aided through the crisis. I acknowledge many of the measures taken today by the Chancellor to do just that, but more urgent and more targeted action is also required.
In particular, urgent measures are needed to help the tourism and hospitality industry, above and beyond what has been offered today. Industry leaders are already warning of the consequences of the coronavirus, with a raft of booking cancellations and a significant drop in numbers. The SNP is advocating a package of measures, including a temporary drop in the VAT rate to 5% to help businesses to reduce their costs—[Interruption.] I can hear the Prime Minister saying, “We’ve cut interest rates,” but—[Interruption.] Business rates, rather, but the problem, Prime Minister, is that these businesses are facing a crisis not of their own making.
Many of the businesses in my part of the world, in the highlands of Scotland, come through a fallow period over the winter. It is not just an issue of their seeing a reduction in business; in some cases, they are going to be desperately short of cash coming in through the door. Let us not forget that many of these businesses have relied on an EU workforce over the last few years. In anticipation of what is happening with the migration proposals from the Government and of the difficulty of recruiting labour, they have had to staff up. They have additional costs, but their revenues are about to fall through the floor. That is why I have written to all the major UK banks to ask them to support businesses and households through this period to make sure that working capital is extended to all businesses, and that no business—no good business in the hospitality and tourism sector—should be pushed to the wall as a consequence of what is happening.
Chancellor, a temporary drop in VAT would allow business to weather the storm as people follow public health advice and tourist numbers drop, but let me say, on the basis of the scientific advice that we have today, that Scotland is well and truly open for business, and I encourage people to come and experience the breadth and depth of our tourism offering. VAT was reduced in Ireland and it helped to boost both employment and tourist numbers. I urge the Chancellor, in the strongest possible terms, to consider a similar policy to help our tourism and hospitality sectors to come through this crisis.
Let me turn to the other measures in the Budget. The Chancellor has just delivered his first Budget speech—I welcome him to his position—and I give him credit for one thing: he did really well in fluently reading out Dominic Cummings’ handwriting. It is a strange irony that those who were most obsessed with taking back control from Brussels are now at the heart of the unelected, centralised elite who have grabbed control, not just in Downing Street but in the Treasury. Today they have produced a half-baked Budget thrown together by a bunch of Vote Leave campaigners drowning in the responsibility of government. I am talking about a group of ideologically driven campaigners—let us be charitable—so distrustful of Europe and the benefits it might have brought, economically, socially and culturally, and so caught up in their own meaningless slogans that they are blinded by the damaging reality they have caused. People are not fooled. The slogan “take back control” does not work when you have been in power for the last decade. We have not forgotten that the Tories have been in control and that we are all the worse for it. If the Chancellor really thinks that this Budget levels up after a decade of austerity, he must have bought himself a wonky spirit level. After delivering a decade of cruel cuts, the Tories are now offering a new decade of political and economic isolation outside the European Union.
The Budget is a warning of what may be ahead of us and a reminder of Scotland’s need to choose a different future. It has never been more stark: Scotland’s economic interests are not served by being part of this UK union. Rather than the instability and limitations imposed by the UK, independence now offers the Scottish people the chance to build a better, more prosperous and safer future. The 2016 Brexit referendum was the moment when our political futures met a point of divergence, and we are now on the cusp of the moment of decision for Scotland’s people. The Conservatives may have delayed our democratic right, but they cannot indefinitely block the voices and votes of the Scottish people. Scotland’s future will be ours to choose, and we will very shortly make that choice. I am more confident than ever that the Scottish people will choose to be an independent, equal and European nation.
As I have said, this is a Budget produced by a group of people who are expert in fabricating slogans but amateurs in delivering competent government. The Tories have a new slogan about levelling up funding and living standards. Let us judge them on their record. A reasonable place to start is basic income. The Office for National Statistics recently confirmed that the median income for the poorest 20% fell by 4.3% per year between 2017 and 2019. Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis shows that since 2010 the poorest 10% of households have lost an average of 11% of their income. That is £1,200 per year. For those with children the average loss was up to 20%, or £4,000. That is the cost of Tory Government to people in Scotland and the United Kingdom. That is the true Tory record: falling wages and growing hardship. While the gap between rich and poor grows, last month the ONS revealed that income inequality was as much as 2.4% higher on average than official figures had suggested over the decade since the financial crisis in 2008, and this Budget does not help by failing to implement policies that deal with growing inequality. The Tories still refuse to raise their pretend living wage to the real living wage and refuse to end the age discrimination that penalises our young people.
Another reasonable place to judge their levelling up record is overall public spending. Let us not be fooled by some of the rhetoric in the statement today. Since 2010, aside from health spending, the Tories have cut per person spending on public services by a whopping 21%. This Budget comes nowhere near either closing or reversing that devastating legacy. By any standard, by any measure, by any objective acknowledgement of fact, this Tory Government have failed to level up for anyone anywhere. They cannot be allowed to hide from these facts, just as they cannot be allowed to hide from their legacy.
Let us be clear: the poor becoming poorer was a Tory political choice. The Resolution Foundation has said that the fall in income for the poorest
“has been driven by policy choices, with gains from higher employment more than wiped out by benefit cuts.”
Why did the Conservatives take these political choices? As ever, they were serving their own interests and the interests of those they serve. For them, it is a simple and cynical calculation. A Government who rob Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul. As far as the Tories are concerned, everyone else can go whistle.
I suppose we should not be surprised. This is a Budget advocated by a Prime Minister who once eulogised:
“some measure of inequality is essential for the spirit of envy and…is, like greed, a valuable spur to economic activity.”
Greed—a valuable spur to economic opportunity! That is the reality of the vision of the Prime Minister. That does not sound like a man determined to level up. The honeyed words and new slogans in the Budget will not change the long and bitter experience of Tory economics. People in Scotland know that they cannot believe their words, they cannot believe their promises, and they cannot believe that they will ever change—not ever.
If this really was the great investment Budget the Chancellor heralds, he should have started by paying up the moneys the Tories have been holding back from Scotland for years. I am grateful to a Scottish Parliament Information Centre—[Interruption.] I hear the Prime Minister talking about grievance. This is not about grievance; this is about the facts of what a Conservative Government have done for the people of Scotland. The Scottish Parliament Information Centre has confirmed that Scotland would be owed about £5.8 billion if the proper Barnett consequentials were applied to the DUP Brexit bung and the additional moneys since. That is the reality. That is added, of course, to the £175 million still owed to the Scottish Police Authority and the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service—money that was stolen from our vital public services. [Interruption.] I hear the hon. Member for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Andrew Bowie) saying it was against all the advice. It was the vindictiveness of his Government that took these funds from the Scottish public services. That is the reality. Let us be crystal clear: the UK Government have chosen to rob Scotland’s public services of that money, and the silence from the Scottish Conservatives—their failure to stand up for our police and firemen—is audible to all.
The Budget also turns its back on the oil and gas sector in the north-east of Scotland. These industries face months of instability and uncertainty in the aftermath of the latest collapse of an OPEC deal to stabilise prices. The oil price has plunged, yet there was not a mention of it from the Chancellor. The impact of the global oil price slump will reverberate around the world, including hitting Scotland’s vital oil and gas sector. The oil and gas sector has generated £334 billion of net tax revenues for the UK Government since 1970. Having used the sector as a cash cow, the Treasury must support it in its time of need. The UK Government must deliver crucial support for the sector as part of a just transition to net zero emissions. Scotland still bears the scars from rapid de-industrialisation under previous Conservative Governments. That must never happen again, and it must not happen to north-east Scotland.
The failure of the Government’s investment strategy— the Chancellor admitted it today, and we see it in the productivity record—has unfortunately failed to diminish their arrogance in trying to dictate the investment needs of the devolved Administrations. We are told that the Treasury is considering an intra-UK connectivity study, which sounds suspiciously like another Tory power grab on the devolved Parliaments. Chancellor, how can people be expected to have faith in a Prime Minister who cannot build a bridge between London and London, and a Scottish Secretary who thinks a bridge is a euphemism for a tunnel? Having ripped up the Sewel convention, the Tories are on a mission to level down devolution. Chancellor, your Government are neither competent enough nor trusted enough to invest in infrastructure in Scotland. Go back and think again, and allow the Scottish Parliament to use extra capital resources to provide for Scotland’s infrastructure needs. We will deliver for the people of Scotland.
The Budget fails to attempt to fix, or even to acknowledge, the underlying fundamental problem of the economy. For the past decade, the Conservatives have presided over a crisis in productivity. Only last year, about 6,000 companies revealed that uncertainty over leaving the European Union had lowered capital spending by about 11% on average. That is what is really going on in the economy. According to the Bank of England, that has cut overall UK productivity by between 2% and 5%—a reduction in productivity created by the Conservative Government in power in Westminster. The overall perception of the UK’s productivity is not helped by the Prime Minister’s productivity levels; he downs tools and hides away whenever the going gets tough.
Static productivity is a direct consequence of choices made during the financial crisis. There was a massive quantitative easing splurge in the wake of the crash, but there has been no real return on that investment for ordinary workers. It did do one thing, though; a Bank of England analysis of the impact of quantitative easing showed that between 2006 to 2014, the 10% least wealthy households saw a marginal increase in wealth of around £3,000. The wealthiest 10% saw a £350,000 increase. In other words, printing money for the financial services industry ended up helping only those working in the financial services industry. Improved productivity, and capital investment for wider society, never got a look-in. I challenge the Chancellor: will he commit to a review of the impact of the bonus culture in financial services and its effect on general economic activity?
As I have said, the decade of Tory austerity and the inequality it inflicted has hit the poorest hardest. The brutal cuts have targeted children and the most disadvantaged. The benefits freeze, universal credit sanctions, disability assessments, the cruel two-child limit, the rape clause—the list of failed and punishing policies goes on and on. It is a legacy the Tories should be ashamed of, and should have the basic decency to apologise for.
If the Chancellor is serious about looking after those who have been left behind, he can begin to prove it by committing to four things. Will he increase the monthly allowance for universal credit and end the benefit cap; increase benefits above inflation and restore their value after the four-year freeze; scrap once and for all the two-child cap on tax credits and the rape clause; and follow the lead of the Scottish Government and bring in a child payment scheme similar to theirs, which has lifted 30,000 of our children out of poverty? If the Chancellor cannot commit to those four basic measures, which would reduce poverty and bring compassion into the social security system, his words and promises of levelling up will be shown to be hollow.
The devastating Tory legacy on social security has especially hit pensioners, who still receive the lowest state pension in the developed world, according to the OECD. They have also been denied their full rights. I am proud that the Scottish National party, with others, has stood shoulder to shoulder with 1950s-born women since the beginning of their campaign, and we stand with them still. They deserve justice, and it is disgraceful that their plight continues to be ignored in yet another Budget.
Another Tory attack on pensioners, and another broken promise, is of course the removal of free TV licences for the over-75s. This will hit 240,000 households in Scotland and 3 million across the United Kingdom. Chancellor, this is your Government’s responsibility, not the BBC’s. It is time to pay up. Stop punishing pensioners, and keep the free TV licence for all those over 75.
By far the biggest budgetary and economic decision that confronts these islands—[Interruption.] We are talking about some of the poorest in our society, and women who have been denied their pensions. I say to the Prime Minister that when I knocked on doors in the election campaign, I found that a great number of elderly people were alarmed by the loss of their TV licence. That is what we get from the Conservatives, but they sit laughing and scoffing. I find it remarkable. It is okay for them; the rest of the population can go hang.
By far the biggest budgetary and economic issue that confronts these islands remains our relationship with the European Union. We hope that the negotiations on our future relationship can be successfully concluded, but all the signs from this Tory Government are that instead of co-operation and close relationships, they are heading for divergence and deregulation. The UK Government’s negotiation mandate all but confirmed that choice. The consequences for workers’ rights, environmental protection, the shape of our economy and the nature of our society will be profound, and—this will be of little interest to this Tory Government—the impact will be felt most by those who already have the least: the vulnerable and the poor. Scotland will end up paying a heavy price for a future we did not back.
Our Government’s modelling shows that even if the UK Government secure a basic free trade agreement, Scottish GDP would be 6.1%, or £9 billion, lower by 2030 than if we had retained full EU membership. We heard from the Chancellor about the impact of a slowing global economy, and have heard about the impact that coronavirus may have on us, yet the Government are prepared to crash our economy and put Scottish workers on the dole. Not in our name! The harsh reality is that that lost GDP—let us put it in cash terms—amounts to £1,610 per person. A no-deal Brexit—heaven help us—will raise that figure to £12.7 billion, equivalent to £2,300 per person. This Tory Government will sacrifice our economic health. Why? For an ideology––the narrow ideology of the Brexit fanboys, led by Dominic Cummings, now running the Treasury. As the trade negotiations unfold in the coming months, the numbers are worth reflecting on, because it is worth reflecting on the fact that the Westminster Government are actively choosing to make Scotland’s people poorer. It is not an accident; it is by design.
On top of all that, the National Audit Office—[Interruption.] I find it remarkable to watch the reaction of the Prime Minister. I challenge the Prime Minister to tell me that the figures that I have just given on the impact of a free trade deal or a no-deal Brexit are wrong. The Prime Minister knows, just as I know—just as we know—that the Scottish economy is going to be harmed by what he wants to do in these trade negotiations.
The Prime Minister (Boris Johnson)
The only threat the Scottish people face is the SNP!
Ian Blackford
I remind the Prime Minister that we have just had an election. He went into that election with the slogan “Say no to indyref2”; how did that work out? You lost more than half your MPs, Prime Minister. [Interruption.]
Mr Harper
I do not agree with that either. We had to make some difficult decisions when the crash happened and they were the right decisions. As the Chancellor set out today, because we made those difficult decisions and put the economy in good shape, we are well positioned to deal with the challenge facing the country and the challenge of tackling the coronavirus.
The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Jesse Norman)
Might it be worth my reminding my right hon. Friend that bank leverage, which had been 20 times capital for 40 years between 1960 and 2000, on average, went from 20 times capital to 50 times capital in seven years under Labour? Therefore, when the bank crisis struck, it was all the worse because the whole sector was wildly over-leveraged.
Mr Harper
Following on from what the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne) said, that was a very sophisticated intervention from my right hon. Friend, and I thank him for it.
The Chancellor rightly opened his Budget statement by setting out the challenge facing the economy from the coronavirus. The combination of what was set out this morning by the Bank of England was welcome—both the interest rate cut and, more importantly, the credit easing, enabling the financial sector to be able to support sound businesses that are fundamentally in good shape but that are going to have an economic shock caused by the coronavirus, both on the demand and supply sides. It was very encouraging to hear of the close co-operation between an independent central bank and the Treasury to make sure that both fiscal and monetary policy are being used to deal with the crisis.
Both individuals and businesses listening to the Budget will welcome the many changes that the Chancellor set out—the three big areas he set will be very welcome across the country, including in my constituency. One key issue that he set out, which I think is on the front page of the Red Book and which he referred to when he was doing some media interviews at the weekend, was trust. On Sunday, when he was interviewed on the BBC, the Chancellor said that the Budget
“is going to first and foremost deliver on our promises to the British people.”
That is the headline on the front of the Red Book. He went on:
“I think trust in politics has been undermined by the things that have happened over the past few years. I’m very keen to make sure that we rebuild that trust and that starts with doing the things that we said we would do.”
That means keeping our promises. As you will know, Mr Deputy Speaker, we made clear commitments in our manifesto: to keep costs down for small businesses by cutting their taxes; to borrow not to fund day-to-day spending but to invest in infrastructure—we saw that in the Budget; and to make sure that debt would be lower at the end of the Parliament. We see the percentage of debt to GDP—the measure that really matters—falling across the Budget period.
We also made it clear that we want to make sure that people get to keep more of the money that they earn and that we keep their bills low, whoever they are. We said that we would not raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT. I welcome those promises and am pleased that we have kept them.
However, the issue is not just the letter of those promises, but their spirit. Any voter at the election in December had a clear choice: a party that promised to keep taxes low or the Labour party, which was clearly going to raise them. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies made clear, it was not credible for Labour to say that it would raise them only for the top 5% of earners if it was to spend what it was proposing.
We have to keep the spirit of our promises and not have any disguised tax rises later in the cycle. I mention that because I spotted a report in The Sun about how we might want to raise taxes to pay for social care. It talked about a 2.5% social care tax. I support increasing the resources going into social care, but I do not want us to increase taxes to pay for it. To voters, a tax of 2.5% on their income will be seen as an income tax. I have no idea whether the report is true or idle speculation, but I counsel Ministers that we need to keep our promises. We said we would not increase the rate of income tax, and we should stick to that approach. I also note that the Chancellor’s proposals—other than the coronavirus proposals, which obviously were introduced late in the day—meet the fiscal rules, with a current Budget surplus in each year of the forecast period. I welcome that.
I want to welcome a couple of the specific measures. The fuel duty freeze is important in a constituency such as mine, where people have to use a car to get around easily and there are not a lot of other choices. I also welcome the exemption in respect of keeping red diesel for farmers, for which the Chancellor particularly credited my right hon. Friend the Government Chief Whip—whose proper title is Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury, demonstrating the value of that role. As a previous holder of it, I thank him for his efforts in ensuring that those who produce our food and drink are rewarded by having their costs kept under control.
In my response to the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill, I said that the tax burden remains at a 50-year high. That is why we need to make sure we keep spending under control. I am pleased that we are going to keep current spending under control, although it is very sensible to borrow for investment in infrastructure. For Conservatives, living within our means should not come to an end: we have to remember that we are spending not our money but taxpayers’, and we have to spend it wisely. Clearly, we need to make sure that we grow the economy faster. I welcome what the Chancellor said about how some of the long-term investment that we are introducing will improve the long-term productivity of the economy by 2.5%, which is what the OBR has said. That investment and the other Budget measures will add half a percentage point to our growth rate.
One way that we will grow the economy is by levelling up across the economy, getting all parts of the United Kingdom to be as productive as London. As a Unionist, I mean not only Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, but all parts of England from the south-west to the north-east, and from Cornwall to County Durham. I am very pleased to see that the Government have started to do that with the proposals that they have set out.
In the south-west, we have some important priorities. I was very pleased to see the investment in the A303, which was one of the key asks from my colleagues in the south-west, and in the A417 missing link in Gloucestershire. We also prioritised digital connectivity, and I was pleased to see the £5 billion to be invested in faster broadband through fibre to the premises and the measures to improve connectivity for mobile telephony with the shared rural network, which is very important in areas such as mine. Education funding is also absolutely critical if we are to improve skills. Moving to a national funding formula is incredibly valuable, as is the investment in our further education colleges.
Finally, we welcome the investment in flood defences. About 73 homes in my constituency and many more across the catchment area of the River Severn were affected by the recent floods, so that £5.2 billion investment is very welcome, as is the £2.5 billion for repairing the potholes in our roads, which will be incredibly important for motorists. Overall, I welcome this Budget. The Chancellor, as a new Chancellor facing some very difficult headwinds, put together a fantastic package. As such it should be welcomed by everyone not just on the Conservative Benches but from across the House, and by the British people.