Social Security (Contributions) (Re-rating) Order 2012
(12 years, 9 months ago)
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Lord Sassoon
That the Grand Committee do report to the House that it has considered the Social Security (Contributions) (Re-rating) Order 2012.
Relevant document: 40th Report from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments.
The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon)
My Lords, I am pleased to introduce the Social Security (Contributions) (Limits and Thresholds) (Amendment) Regulations 2012 and the Social Security (Contributions) (Re-rating) Order 2012 to the Committee. As both the regulations and the order deal with national insurance contributions, it seems sensible to debate them together. I can confirm that the provisions in the regulations and the order are compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights.
All the changes covered by these two instruments were announced as part of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement last November. It is worth noting from the start that the basis of indexation that has been used to calculate most of the changes covered by these two instruments is different from that used for the 2011-12 tax year. In the Budget last year we announced that from the 2012-13 tax year the basis for indexation of most national insurance contribution rate limits and thresholds would be the consumer prices index, CPI, instead of the retail prices index, RPI. This is because the Government believe that the CPI is the most appropriate measure of the general level of prices. The exceptions to this are the secondary threshold and the upper earnings and upper profits limits. I will explain why in a moment.
I will start with the Social Security (Contributions) (Limits and Thresholds) (Amendment) Regulations. These regulations are necessary in order to set the class 1 national insurance contributions lower earnings limit, primary and secondary thresholds and the upper earnings limit for the 2012-13 tax year. The class 1 lower earnings limit will be increased from £102 to £107 per week from 6 April 2012. The lower earnings limit is the level of earnings at which contributory benefit entitlement is secured. However, NICs do not need to be paid by the employee until earnings reach the primary threshold. The class 1 primary threshold will be increased to £146 per week from 6 April 2012. The secondary threshold is the point at which employers start to pay class 1 NICs. In line with the commitment given in last year’s Budget, this is being increased by RPI to £144 per week. This will help employers, large and small, during this difficult economic climate.
From April, the personal allowance for people under 65 will be increased above indexation by £630 from £7,475 to £8,105, and the basic rate limit will be decreased by £630 to £34,370. This means that the point at which higher tax kicks in will remain at £42,475 in 2012-13. As I mentioned, the upper earnings limit is not subject to CPI indexation. In order to maintain the existing alignment of the upper earnings limit with the point at which higher rate tax is paid, the UEL will remain at £817 per week. The regulations also set the prescribed equivalents of the primary and secondary thresholds for employees paid monthly or annually.
There will be no changes to NICs rates in 2012-13. Employees will continue to pay 12 per cent on earnings between the primary threshold and the upper earnings limit, and 2 per cent on earnings above that. Employers will continue to pay contributions at 13.8 per cent on all earnings above the secondary threshold.
The social security order sets out the NICs rates and thresholds for the self-employed and those paying voluntary contributions. Starting with the self-employed, the order raises the small earnings exception below which the self-employed may claim exemption from paying class 2 contributions. The exception will rise in April from £5,315 to £5,595 a year. Many self-employed people choose to pay these contributions to protect their benefit entitlement, although they may claim exemption from paying class 2 contributions. The rate of class 2 contributions for 2012-13 will rise from £2.50 to £2.65 a week. The rate of voluntary class 3 contributions will also increase from £12.60 to £13.25 a week.
Today’s order also sets the profit limit from which main rate class 4 contributions are paid. The lower limit at which these contributions are due will increase from £7,225 to £7,605 a year, in line with the increase to the class 1 primary threshold.
At the other end of the scale, the upper profits limit will remain at the same level as the 2011-12 tax year. This is to maintain the alignment of the upper profits limit with the upper earnings limit for employees. The changes to class 4 limits will ensure that the self-employed pay contributions at the main rate of 9 per cent on a similar range of earnings as employees paying class 1 contributions at the main rate of 12 per cent. Profits above the upper profits limit are subject to the additional rate of 2 per cent, in line with the 2 per cent paid by employees.
My Lords, I commend the draft Social Security Contributions Limits and Thresholds Amendment Regulations 2012 and the draft Social Security Contributions Re-rating Order 2012 to the Committee.
Lord Eatwell
My Lords, when the index number used to calculate and evaluate the performance of the Bank of England was changed from RPI to CPI a few years ago, the target inflation rate was lowered from 2.5 per cent to 2 per cent to take account of the difference in the indices. No such change has been enjoyed by the rest of us. The Bank of England has a better arm-lock on the Treasury than does the general public, particularly those of us who pay national insurance contributions or, as we shall discuss later, receive tax credits.
As someone who has taught a course on index number theory for a number of years, one of the most important lessons one can take from index number analysis is that there is no such thing as a true measure of any particular variable in a complex index. In this case, there is no such thing as a true measure of inflation. The choice of index is purely a matter of the purpose for which it is to be used. In the cases before us today, the purpose of the change in the index is to increase taxation by stealth. The role of indexation is supposed to be to protect real positions, whether of benefits or contributions. As is evident from the Government’s own impact statement, which shows a benefit to the Treasury of £1 billion a year by the fiscal year 2015-16, real values are not being protected in this case.
Much has been made in the discussion of the changes to personal taxation and national insurance of the increase in the personal tax threshold. The change in the level of national insurance contributions debated today may appear minor in comparison and has received far less attention—but as it stands, the decision to index direct taxes by CPI and to contract out national insurance rebates produces a net increase to the Treasury revenue of £1 billion.
There is more to come. The two orders combine to create a fiscal drag which by 2015-16 will increase the tax burden by £1 billion a year, as I mentioned. With contribution thresholds increasing at CPI—the lower of the two standard measures of inflation—more workers will be caught in the higher bracket of payments than would otherwise have been the case. I note with interest that the impact assessment note issued by the Treasury indicates that 21 million employees will lose out by £6 a year on average in the next fiscal year. The Government are rather coy and do not tell us what will happen in the subsequent fiscal years of 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16, even though they give the aggregate figure, so they must know what is happening. Why are they not telling us? If they do not know, the aggregate figure is simply a fiction. I believe the aggregate figure, so what is happening to individuals in this case? Given that the Treasury expects to raise £1 billion in 2015-16, what is the impact of the change on individuals over the course of the Parliament?
Finally, I would be grateful if the Minister could offer his view on what the benefit is of a whole variety of uprating mechanisms being used by the Government across various departments, different benefits and payments, and contributions. For example, he will be aware that other price rises such as student loan repayments or rail fares continue to be uprated at RPI. Why is one on the CPI and the other on the RPI? The answer is simply that it maximises the benefit to the Treasury. We all know that. The Minister will also be aware that the Chancellor has previously stated that he has an ambition for the default indexation assumption for indirect taxes to be moved to CPI when the fiscal position allows. Why can we not move to it now? The answer is that it would reduce the rate of taxation, and so we are sticking with the higher rate on indirect taxes so as to get the biggest benefit for the Treasury.
Let us not be deceived by this uprating story. It is a minimalist move, and one which with respect to thresholds has been designed to extract more from the contributor to national insurance. That is what is clearly conveyed in the Government’s own assessment of the figures. So in presenting the changes to thresholds and contributions, why does the Minister not simply come clean and say, “We have increased contributions”? The last Budget was one that actually increased direct taxation, contrary to what the Chancellor of the Exchequer told us.
Lord Sassoon
My Lords, that was a brief and focused debate, and I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, for focusing on what is clearly an important issue, which is the question of the basis on which benefits and contributions are uprated. The noble Lord asked about the targeting of the Bank of England as changed by the previous Government of rail fares and a host of other things. Certainly the starting point on which we agree is one on which he is the acknowledged expert and I am not: that the measurement of inflation is far from an easy matter, as was shown when the last Government moved the targeting of the Bank of England but did not seek to change the basis on which a number of other government-related measures, such as the ones we are talking about today were not changed. Getting consistency across the piece, even if that is theoretically the right answer, is something which his Government certainly did not do.
In answer to the questions about the effects of the move of some of the indexation to the CPI it is important to point out, first, that in some cases lower increases may be beneficial. For example, increasing the lower earnings limit by the CPI, which is typically lower than the RPI, means that over time more people will qualify for contributory benefits because the lower earnings limit will rise more slowly. Similarly, the weekly class 2 and class 3 national insurance contribution rates will rise more slowly over time under CPI indexation.
If you look at national insurance contributions in isolation, some people will be worse off because the primary thresholds and the lower profits limit—the point at which they start to pay class 1 or class 4 national insurance contributions—has risen by less in 2012-13, but I should point out, as I did in my opening remarks, that the income tax personal allowance will go up significantly, by £630.
We are trying to get what the Government believe to be the most appropriate measure of the general level of prices, given that CPI is calculated in a way that more accurately reflects consumer shopping habits in response to price changes. I see a wry smile across the face of the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. We probably do not have time for an intellectual analysis, but that is the underlying basis on which the switch has been made. As has already been pointed out, the CPI forms the basis of the Bank of England’s inflation target and is indeed more consistent with the European Central Bank harmonised index of consumer prices. I am not sure that there were questions about that, but there were assertions about it, and I hope that that clarifies the Government’s position on the noble Lord’s main points about the RPI and CPI.
On the question of the impact on individuals, let me give as much information as I have to hand. About 40,000 people will have to pay national insurance contributions because of the changes; 21 million people will lose by £6 a year; but the increase in the income tax personal allowance to £8,105 in 2012-13, to which I just referred, reduces tax bills by £214 for basic rate taxpayers, easily outweighing the small increase in national insurance contributions through the CPI indexation—£6 versus £214 as the impact of those two offsetting measures.
In addition, the Government have introduced a significant above-indexation increase in the primary threshold in 2011-12 of £29 per week, so all class 1 national insurance contribution payers earning up to about £21,600 will pay less in national insurance contributions in 2012-13 than they would have done under the usual indexation of national insurance contribution thresholds since 2010-11. I am not aware that there is available information on the impact on individuals, which clearly depends on all sorts of future decisions, not least about what happens to personal allowances in future years.
Lord Eatwell
Perhaps the noble Lord can help me. The Treasury document tells us that the overall impact of the changes and benefits to the Treasury will exceed £1 billion by 2015-16. That figure must be made up of the assessment of the impact on the various people who are contributing to national insurance. If we have the overall figure, why can we not be told what are the components?
Lord Sassoon
I was going on to say that I will certainly undertake to take that question away. As the noble Lord will be aware, sometimes only aggregate figures can be given up to the auditable standard that is required. If the information is available, subject to the usual way that these things are announced, I will see whether I can help. I will look at that and write if there is something I can do to be helpful to the Committee. However, the changes to the contribution rates generally speak for themselves. They are in the normal form of these things that are done on an annual basis other than the major change which we have debated. I commend the regulations and order to the Committee.