Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office, what estimate he has made of the number of additional declarations that businesses will need to make following the implementation of the Border Target Operation Model.

The Border Target Operating Model sets out our new approach to Safety and Security controls (applying to all imports and standardising controls applied to Rest of World and EU trade), and Sanitary and Phytosanitary controls (applied to imports of animal products, germinal products, plants and plant products and live animals) at the border. It also outlines how we will reduce the administrative burden of traders providing this information through the UK Single Trade Window.

Future trade flows are of course subject to factors beyond government policy including changes to consumer and trader behaviour.

Our modelling estimates 17.4m additional Safety and Security declarations will be required following implementation of the Border Target Operating Model. We also estimate a total of up to 4.5m consignments that are imported into the UK from the EU will be subject to Sanitary and Phytosanitary requirements. These requirements depend on the risk of the commodity within the consignment as outlined in the published Border Target Operating Model.

These estimates are based on data sourced from a range of government agencies, including Safety and Security declarations for non-EU trade, customs declaration data and transit data. The Government will continue to assess the latest estimates based on more recent data.