Asked by: Lord Livermore (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask His Majesty's Government further to the Written Answer by Baroness Vere of Norbiton on 23 January (HL1648), whether they will provide forecasts of the number of people that His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs expect to fill in tax returns in each of the next five years.
Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
HMRC does not hold an estimate for numbers of taxpayers likely to file a Self Assessment return for the next five years. This is because over time, the size of the Self Assessment population will vary due to changes in tax legislation, operational decisions and economic factors.
Each year, following the filing deadline for Self Assessment returns, HMRC conducts analysis to forecast the likely number of Self Assessment filers in the forthcoming year and the likely impact on demand for its services. HMRC has not yet made this forecast for next year.
For taxpayers who are employees, HMRC commonly adjusts their PAYE tax code to collect extra amounts of income tax due. HMRC may also be able to use Simple Assessment to collect tax. Both methods save taxpayers from the need to complete a tax return.
Asked by: Lord Livermore (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the answer by Baroness Vere of Norbiton on 10 January (HL Deb col 8), where it was asserted that His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs has forecasts for how many people will be filling in tax returns or required to pay tax, whether they will publish the forecasts for the next five years.
Answered by Baroness Vere of Norbiton - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
The estimated number of people required to pay income tax over the next five years was published in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November 2023 Economic and Fiscal Outlook[1].
[1] Table 1.1, https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Nov-2023-EFO-additional-taxpayers-by-tax-rate-band.pdf
Asked by: Lord Livermore (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty's Government what their latest estimate is of the impact on GDP in each year between 2019 and 2033 of leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement in place.
Answered by Lord Young of Cookham
The Government’s analysis on the economic effects of EU exit looks at the long-term impacts. Within their statutory mandates, the Bank of England and the OBR produce short-to-medium term forecasts for the UK economy which will reflect their independent judgements regarding the impact of leaving the EU.
Asked by: Lord Livermore (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact on UK GDP from (1) leaving the EU's single market, and (2) negotiating a free trade agreement with the United States.
Answered by Lord Young of Cookham
The Government has published a detailed set of economic analyses on the long-term impacts of EU exit on the UK economy, its sectors, nations and regions and the public finances – covering multiple EU exit scenarios. The analysis finds that the spectrum of outcomes for the future UK-EU relationship would deliver significantly higher economic output than the no deal scenario.
In keeping with the government’s ambitious free trade agenda, the analysis assumes that, in the long run, the UK secures agreements with a broad range of potential trading partners, including, but not limited to, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and other members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The analysis estimates that in the long run these trade agreements could increase UK GDP by up to 0.2 percentage points.
The complete analysis can be found in the “EU Exit: Long-Term Economic Analysis” paper, which is available on the Gov.uk website in Exiting the European Union: Publications section.
Asked by: Lord Livermore (Labour - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact on government borrowing of a free trade agreement with the EU compared to membership of the Single Market in each year between 2019 and 2033.
Answered by Lord Bates
The Government is undertaking a wide range of analysis and preparatory work to support our EU exit negotiations and preparations. However, it is not standard practice to provide an ongoing commentary on internal analysis.
Ministers have a specific responsibility, which Parliament has endorsed, not to release information that would undermine our negotiating position.
The analysis recently published by the Commons Exiting the EU Committee does not represent Government policy. It is an information gathering exercise, there to test ideas. It is analysis of existing trade relationships - none of which is the outcome we are working towards.