Question to the Ministry of Justice:
To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, what estimate he has made of the (a) gross and (b) net amount likely to be collected through the criminal courts charge in each of the next five financial years.
The Government believes that convicted adult offenders should pay towards the costs of running the criminal courts. Recovering some of the costs of the criminal courts from convicted offenders will reduce the burden on taxpayers of funding the courts system.
The estimates are set out in tables below. The estimates are based on draft charge levels that were published in July 2014. The charge levels are currently being finalised and so the forecast of the amounts we expect to collect may change.
Gross cash inflow
Scenario: | 15/16 | 16/17 | 17/18 | 18/19 | 19/20 |
Based on current fine payment rates | £5m | £75m | £100m | £105m | £105m |
Based on income-based payment model (high scenario) | £15m | £75m | £105m | £135m | £160m |
Net cash inflows
Scenario: | 15/16 | 16/17 | 17/18 | 18/19 | 19/20 |
Based on current fine payment rates | -£20m | £50m | £75m | £80m | £80m |
Based on income-based payment model (high scenario) | -£10m | £50m | £80m | £110m | £135m |
Figures in both tables are rounded to the nearest £5 million and are in real terms. They include a 20% adjustment for optimism bias.
Two separate approaches have been adopted to estimate future revenues from the charge. One approach (the fines-based model) is based on the current repayment rates of fines by offenders, while the other approach (income-based model) is based on data on offenders’ means. The two approaches allow us to consider different aspects of the impact of the charge. We have used two discrete models to allow cross-validation of the different models’ estimates, and to provide a range for the revenue forecasts.