Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, what assessment his Department has made of the cumulative impact of trade deals on domestic agricultural output.

The Government publishes Scoping Assessments to assess the impacts of free trade agreements, in advance of negotiations. Following signature of an agreement, a full Impact Assessment is published prior to implementation. These assessments set out the impact of each agreement at a sectoral level, including agriculture and the food sector.

The Impact Assessments for the free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand have been published. Modelling of the Australia agreement shows an expected reduction in UK agricultural output of 0.7%, and a 2.65% reduction in semi-processed foods output. For the New Zealand agreement, UK agricultural output is expected to fall by 0.35%, and semi-processed food output by 1.16%.

The analysis isolates the change stemming from the agreement against a background of the existing trade arrangements. The estimates can therefore not be simply added together but they reflect the relative significance of each trade agreement.

However, the exact impacts of trade agreements are uncertain. Defra continues to monitor and assess the impacts of market developments across the UK, alongside the Devolved Administrations. In addition, the Government is developing the tools and evidence for assessing the impacts of potential future trade agreements.